Let's start with history.During World War II allied countries was formed under the name of the Bretton Woods system.The gist of it was this: the dollar has become a global currency and backed by gold.This system was indestructible until the early nineties, until it became dependent on the balance of supply and demand.Since that time the dollar rises.And it is growing relentlessly, continuing to be the main reserve currency of most banks in the world, including in Russia.
Why rising dollar?Abbreviations (and sometimes even elimination) of assets in some countries (including the BRIC) lead to the sale of currency for dollars.This automatically increases the demand for the dollar.Another stimulus - US Treasury selling its own bonds.The US economy remains the largest in the world, as a model for others.
American society, perhaps the most adventurous.It is this feature allows you to quickly emerge from the crisis.And it is this quality continues to inspire in investors' confidence in the strength of the
Go ahead.Act corresponding to the number of products and the amount of money to which these products can be purchased, somewhat modified.Now he is repelled by the exchange rates of currencies.But the course is known to determine the market.
Like the US crisis has not bypassed.Here, too, noted the bankruptcy, unemployment, budget deficit.But it was at the peak of the crisis the dollar has become particularly callable.Paradox?Not at all.By understanding the causes of the growth rate, we will answer the fundamental question of why the dollar is rising.
If under the same conditions, the US economy continued to grow, the dollar would simply exorbitant.But other factors play the role of counterweight: falling oil prices, economic slowdown observed in all other countries.
But the price for the currency continues to rise.Why is that?Investors have lost interest in the falling price of oil, have switched to dollars.The dollar, as a product, recognized throughout the world, has become more attractive just because of its low cost during this period.This begs the question of why the dollar is rising, but not the euro?It's simple: the euro - pretty young currency, but the dollar in the trump card - the age-old trust and recognition, so even with the fall, he will remain the strongest in the world.In addition, an extensive list of external debt does not allow the US to go bankrupt.All combine to explain the change in the appetite of investors and, accordingly, the growth rates for the currency.
This process can also be considered as an example of the dollar-ruble.For the last 2012 rubles at the Central Bank of strange resist dropped by about 18%, continuing to fall further.Why the dollar is rising, falling and the ruble will ever stop this process at all?Why the central bank is indifferent to the fall of the national currency - the ruble?
Numerous economic experts point to the European debt crisis and reduced demand for oil.But this is only a tiny fraction of the truth.The basis of the Russian economy - exports.The stability of this sector should be, in theory, the task №1.But everything that goes into the hands of exporters, especially because a significant portion of revenue actually received by the export is abroad.And this fact makes it possible to form a cushion of financial security for extra 18-20% (or even more).
the same time and shall be punished by financial speculators, fascinated by this easy money on the game in interest rates."Capital flight" is so much discussion is really attracting from overseas dollar loans.Even though they are partly psevdokreditami their own offshore companies, they are absorbed in large quantities.Under the pressure of loans, the state had to keep abroad the same volume of state reserves in order to avoid uncontrolled attack on the ruble.The elimination of private currency loan partially free hand, eliminating the need to own investments in the West, thereby deriving from the possible impact their own state funds.And this is - a double benefit: rubles per dollar in the Central Bank gets more and state reserves is already possible not to associate with the possible collapse of the financial system of the West.Therefore, as stolidly watching the Central Bank of buying up dollars gambling, getting rid of "foreign colored paper."However, to 30.76 ruble could "jump" up to 40 per dollar to please fans of the risk.
Now back to the global scale.What drew attention to himself in the first place?Full coordination of the movements of all the markets.With the growth of the dollar falls the euro, bonds, oil, gold.And the reason - on the surface: the US has run out of money.Of course, they can be printed, but the situation for the United States for the better will not change: to refinance needed injections from abroad, the only way to replace the external debts of some others.There should be a clear system to work the US Federal Reserve - the US banks - European banks - the US budget.Free money from European banks does not remain, and the European Central Bank, able to balance the feed, somehow slow to enter your machine.US still reap all the levers, trying to prevent an uncontrolled collapse of the dollar, draining liquidity from all markets and countries.This is another answer to the question of why the dollar is rising.
It is possible that at the start of the printing press of the ECB to stabilize the situation.Let's wait ...