Russian economy is experiencing is not the most stable times.This is largely due to the high dependence of the individual branches of the national economy from foreign suppliers.In this regard, the country's economic development becomes particularly relevant import substitution.What is the process?Which sectors of the Russian economy it is particularly necessary?
Determination
Import substitution - is, according to the common interpretation, the process at the level of the national economy, which will ensure the release of the necessary domestic consumer goods manufacturers by the leading activity in the country.This process can be proactive or reactive.In the first case of import substitution goods produced so as to keep out competing foreign suppliers into the market.In the second the displacement of foreigners from the respective segments.
In turn, both versions of import can be carried out mainly on the basis of market mechanisms or through administrative intervention of various political structures.In the first case of successful import substitution - a fair result of competition.Domestic manufacturer thus proving to the buyer that the goods he produces better and cheaper than foreign suppliers.Chance, however, an option under which the process will be carried out due to administrative prohibition of activities imposed on aliens.
Russian scenario
economic situation in Russia today is that in our country, import substitution is necessary, according to many analysts, in several key sectors.At the same time in some segments of the relevant process can proceed at a more or less market conditions in other Russian producers will have an advantage due to administrative factors.Thus, substitution to Russia, likely to occur under both scenarios, depending on the particular industry.
Agriculture Food
embargo against the West European suppliers of agricultural products - a strong incentive development of domestic business in the relevant field.Russian farmers have received an unprecedented opportunity to implement a large-scale import substitution.List of goods fell under the ban on the import, very wide.This dairy products, and vegetables and fruits, meat and nuts.Market capacity of some segments of the trade turnover between Russia and Western countries in the agricultural sector is estimated at billions of dollars.
Of course, in this area, and will competition: in particular, the supply of products from Asia, South America, Africa, as well as from the states of the Customs Union can be implemented in Russia is free - there are no sanctions on the relevant activities there.However, despite the existence of an alternative European suppliers of agricultural products to Russia import substitution in agriculture - among the priorities of economic development in the near future.The big question, experts say, is how effective will be the interaction between farmers and outlets in practice.
Industry
Regarding the scope of the need for alternative products to foreign suppliers with Russian consumers arose mainly due to the devaluation of the ruble.Imported goods have become more expensive.In many segments of the industry it is also determined the increase of the prices for the products within the country.Importing, say, a machine, or some radio-electronic parts, the Russian producer has faced significant costs had grown up, to compensate for that in many cases it was possible to one way - raising prices for domestic consumers.
However, import substitution in the industry when it comes to the Russian scenario, can wear away not only stimulated.The fall of the ruble has played, according to many experts, to a certain extent a positive role in the economy.The fact is that in fact the depreciation of the Russian currency, many production costs and wages in dollar terms, as well as, indeed, correlative with most other major world currencies, fell significantly.The Russian industry, as a result, it became profitable to invest.
If you look at reports for the Ministry of Finance in 2014 concerning trends in the economy, we can see that in Russia significantly increased industrial production - about 1.4%.While the GDP, according to preliminary estimates, in 2014 increased by approximately 0.6%.Also, some experts point out that even in some very uncharacteristic, it would seem, for our national production sectors import substitution occurs.List of products that are actively produced in Russia, form, in particular, household appliances, electronics, while the majority of the inhabitants are accustomed to, that it is produced in Asia.Although there is a version that such figures are caused by situational surge in demand for a particular product.And so you need to wait, to make sure that this fundamental trend.
import substitution in the industry in Russia, thus expressed in two ways.Firstly, it is the desire of consumers to have access to cheaper products.Secondly, it is the attractiveness of the Russian economy in terms of production costs.
Industry: Dependent scope
In what areas of industry of the Russian Federation the need to import is greatest?Among the most dependent on external supplies industries - machine tools.In her share of imports, according to estimates of some analysts - about 90%.The heavy machinery is not much less - about 80%.Heavy dependence on imports and also in the light industry - the figures in some of its segments and reach 90%.In the pharmaceutical industry, in the food industry dependence comparable.
Regarding production, experts say, need a large-scale program of import substitution, is largely supported by the state.This work is generally carried out.If it is successfully implemented by the competent authorities, in the next few years it is possible, according to some analysts, reduce performance, depending of each industry by about 30%, and perhaps more.
IT-industry
Russian IT-industry - one of the fastest growing in the economy.You can also mention the fact that many IT-products from the Russian Federation is well known abroad.And because our IT-school is very competitive.However, as some analysts have calculated the dependence of the Russian sphere of information technologies from western solutions is significant.About 70% of the software used by the user, both private and corporate level, is supplied by foreign developers.And this despite the fact that in many segments of the software there is an alternative to Russia, which is considered by many experts, is not inferior to foreign models in functionality and quality.
One of the key arguments in favor of using domestic IT-solutions, analysts say the need for involvement of the security software in most business segments.The work of many companies associated with the transmission of sensitive data.Many of the leaders of Russian firms tend to have doubts about the use of foreign software in such cases.Also the work of many companies associated with the need to maintain exceptionally smooth operation of server systems, which often can provide only those suppliers that are located directly in the Russian Federation.
The program of import substitution in Russia, experts say, has all the resources for successful implementation.Even in technologically advanced segments of the IT-industry, as the development of operating systems, programmers from Russia has something to offer as an alternative to Western suppliers.
Thus, import substitution - a process that may relate to any industry.We have identified a few key.The economic situation in Russia requires a speedy import substitution in many segments of the national economy, but to implement it in practice is not always easy.Why is that?Consider the basic nuances associated with the realities of the relevant work.
problems
Import substitution - is multifactorial, difficult in terms of practical implementation of the process.The success of its implementation depends on the decision of a number of problematic nuances characteristic of the Russian economy.What, for example?
First of all, it is very limited, as many experts believe, Russian businesses access to credit.The fact that the sanctions imposed by the EU and the US to the many companies of the Russian Federation do not allow for loans abroad, which largely rescued in the past.In turn, the loans in Russia is not very profitable: the refinancing rate of the Central Bank now - 15%, and get a loan, the company is likely to be able at a percentage that will be no less than this value.To develop the production with profitability, which will cover the loan payments under such conditions, it would be problematic.
What could be a possible solution to the problem of the availability of loans?Some experts believe that many Russian businesses could develop in the market of project finance or, for example, in the field of venture capital investment, thereby gaining access to credit at a reasonable basis, or to capital provided concessions on shares held by the company.
This perspective, of course, does not suit all businesses, but it's probably better than waiting for some news from the camp of the Central Bank.Possible options with the state subsidizing certain projects.Also, many businesses can develop areas related to the production of new products under the framework of public procurement contracts.
Another problem, which accompanies the import substitution in Russia - the lack of qualified personnel in a number of industries.In 1990, many citizens of the Russian Federation, choosing a profession focused on the humanitarian industry to services.Engineering, specialty workers were not too popular.As a result, in many segments of today shortage of staff.
solve this problem a variety of ways.The most affordable - retraining.Fortunately, the Russian education in general remained a developed scientific and industrial base, which can be activated for training a wide variety of industries.Another option - to attract people from abroad, which, however, can be complicated due to the low exchange rate: not in all cases in Russia for a person to be more profitable to work.At the same time, the Russian government has taken significant steps to facilitate immigration to the country.In particular, the opening of the program receiving the simplified citizenship for people who have significant ties with Russia - kinship, language, culture.
international dimension
Another possible barrier to a successful import substitution - the obligation of the Russian Federation in the framework of WTO membership.The fact is that because of the signing of international treaties with other states of the structure of Russia has not too many options for intervention in the economic processes of government agencies that may be involved, for example, to protect the national market in terms of trade with foreign suppliers.
Therefore options in order to get more power from the Russian government is not very much.There are quite radical - to withdraw from the WTO.However, as noted by some experts, the state under the current rules prescribed in the WTO agreements, in general, are endowed with a significant amount of tools to protect the interests of domestic producers.The question is, to use the resource wisely.For example, in 2015, Russia, as noted by some analysts, may exercise the right to adjust the tariff commitments so that sufficiently effective way to protect a number of segments of the internal market and do not violate existing WTO rules.
Success Factors
policy of import substitution in Russia, despite the marked complexity, has an excellent chance of success.This is due to a large number of factors.First, Russian companies in most cases there is no problem with access to the necessary raw materials, natural resources.Secondly, manufacturing costs of the opening of the RF output in many cases will be lower than abroad, in fact, because of the relative cheapness of some natural resources.Also in Russia is quite cheap electricity.On the advantages of salary arising from the depreciation of the ruble, we have already said.Third, Russia has significant technological capabilities.While it is implemented in practice in a small number of industries - mainly in the field of defense industry, in space exploration.However, if necessary, according to many analysts, it is always possible to translate this or that military developments in the civil sector.
role of the state
Just how successful the plan will import in Russia in a particular industry, largely depends on the position of the state.The extent to which the Russian authorities are ready to perform a much-needed function for the economy?In general, the Russian government approach to import sufficiently seriously.
In particular, in August 2014 issued a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation, according to which a new structure was set up - Fund industry.The key challenge that the agency will perform - just giving businesses the necessary loans.It is expected that under the conditions of these loans are more profitable than handling enterprise into a commercial bank.
import substitution program, developed by the state, also includes a number of other notable initiatives.For example, in June 2014. The Government has developed a new law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation."Provisions contained therein, experts say, could be the basis for the implementation of key strategic areas in the development of manufacturing industry in the country.Industrial import substitution program in Russia thus will be implemented with a noticeable participation of the state.
