Dependent and independent events.

That player casino frantically looks at roulette, the ball measures the way, or a slot machine decides the fate of your money.The player lost, but in fact very, very soon to win.After all, many times unlucky, dropped out is not necessary.So now sure to win, well, the theory of probability, the probability of a bad end each time.No, do not stop.Each time the tape starts its journey, it's always the way to zero.Because multiple loss of the same color - they are independent events.And much to hope it is not necessary, it is best to check out a textbook or even this article.

without extremes

Of course, as in a casino in life is rare.Everything in life is permeated with threads of interdependence, God does not play with random.But we do not consider life processes, and the theory of probability.Dependent and independent events - it's just terminology.When a person does not see relations in the world - it is a sign of low intelligence, when he sees too many connections - like paranoia, especially if

there is a failure to treat the critical arguments.So it is better without extremes.

subtle difference

What is dependent events?For example, you have a bag with black and white chips, there is a certain amount of them and the amount of two kinds - equal.If you are the first time randomly pulled out a black piece, the probability of drawing the next time the white - more.That is two things - pulling chips of different colors - are dependent.But if you add after drawing the same token black black and try to pull the piece again, it has to be independent events.


roulette players often think that if the previous time was not lucky, but now certainly will be king, such as the total "amount of luck" is constant.However, the independence of the events during the rotation roulette obvious even to people who are not specialists in probability.With slot machines even easier - they are designed for a certain number of wins.Independent events?No dependent.The only caveat - payment for programming the machine lies in the fact that the total amount has been contributed in part returned to him in the form of winnings, but a few times a player is gradually getting rid of their money.So if you want to play with good fortune - more than two or three times not to play.The more you play into the machine, the more you lose.A tape measure compared with a gun - it is generally quite difficult.

Mathematics probability

For example, red and black fall accidentally.And the probability of the same color will be 0.5.Do you want to estimate the probability that a single color rolled twice in a row?It is difficult, though not obvious.To find the required value should be multiplied by the probability of a second value, that is, it turns out that the probability of, say, the red color twice in a row 0.25.Yes, and you will only see it on a lot of roulette spins.Errors will be, but they are insignificant.But three consecutive falls in the red probability 0.125.Not so much.

So all games "doubling" - trap is not very smart people, and seems to have invented the creators of the casino and betting establishments.And indeed all the casino game strategy with probability - is a variant of the magic, not a reasonable calculation.The only way to win - to deceive the "human factor."But it sometimes affects criminal law.