Since the end of August 2014, the dollar began to gradually gain momentum.In parallel, there was a decrease in oil prices.At the time, no one could guess what will rise in the dollar, which was perceived by the market as the next pullback.The unrest in the society began to grow when the price chart was rapidly penetrate through level after level.This phenomenon can be observed since the end of August.It takes place today.The dollar rose dramatically against all currencies quoted on the market.The signal for the situation that has developed today, can be regarded as the formation of new peaks in the Dow Jones and S & amp; P 500. Many analysts since the beginning of September, we warned that the US currency is preparing a surprise for traders fundamentalist.
As the dollar has affected life in Russia?
increase in the value of the US currency, which is considered the most liquid commodity in the world, left its mark on the economy of every country in the world.Especially clearly manifested itself in the rise of the dollar in Russia.It inflames the situation fall in oil prices.The excitement among the citizens in connection with the collapse of the ruble in no way supported by the government agencies for a long time.Error government was that it relied on the self-regulating market forces.The growth of foreign currency, which in the last five months came in spurts, led to a rapid increase in the price of food and the difficulties in business.However, this is only the tip of the iceberg.At the state level, the growth of the dollar has become a prerequisite to an outflow of capital from Russia, to a reduction in the volume of imports, a reduction of GDP to 0.8% in the index.Under the blows were not only small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations, whose activities are to replenish the budget of Russia.The growth of the dollar, a drop of oil, the issue of the ruble and reduce the cost of gas has led to intensive withering of the Russian economy.In a moment of crisis the Central Bank raised interest rates, prompting the government to take several steps backwards in development.
that said the dollar Bank for International Settlements?
The question of what will the dollar, worries not only Russia but the whole world.Bank for International Settlements - is one of the first financial institutions of the world, which began to sound the alarm over the situation.According to the BIS, the growth of the US currency could lead to a crisis in the economy in many countries.The tendency to strengthen one of the main currencies of the world invariably leads to destabilization of the situation in all the stock markets.Concerns relate primarily to the fact that large corporations, which are held on the basis of the economy of the world, mainly operating on the basis of loans in dollar terms.Repayment amount will have to make in the same currency that the actual rate is very problematic to implement, and in some places impossible.Crisis similar to what occurred in Russia may overtake larger number of countries.
Debentures
stronger dollar has automatically become a harbinger of trouble for developing countries.Judge what will rise in the dollar, it becomes possible only after the exchange of new highs.
Once the dollar starts to strengthen, governments that are actively developing, are starting to untie the US currency heavily on their own than completely deprive themselves of external funding, and strengthen the reserves of the central bank.However, enterprises in developing countries over the last few years have significantly increased the debt issue, and it is in US dollars.Borrowers released to date, securities amounting to about 2.6 trillion dollars (3/4 volume denominated in dollars).Cross-border loans reached about $ 4 trillion.If the dominant international currency starts to fall, and will continue its march, the debt burden of many companies of the world will simply unsupportable.The situation will worsen if interest rates in the US reached its normal state.And all this is what goes.The policy of quantitative easing ended, and the United States in the hands of virtually all the cards.
Rising Dollar: good for the United States - it is bad for the economy of other countries
While the growth of the dollar continues, as the US economy thrives, the case elsewhere in the world were far from the best way.For example, in Japan reigns another recession.Close to the crisis, many EU countries.It was on their territory of the ECB is trying hard to rehabilitate the situation through the implementation of many aid programs.There were even statements from the government that in the coming months it is planned capital program of quantitative easing.To make predictions for the future is not one analyst is not taken.According to preliminary estimates, the situation in the near future will be similar.The first change you will notice is closer to the spring, when the ECB will officially declare the improvement of economic indicators in connection with the work done.
no optimistic prospects
soon nothing positive from the situation can be expected, especially given the continued growth of the dollar further.The effects are not limited to increased demand for the currency and its lack in most countries of the world.We should expect the outflow of capital from the state budget.Large companies, debtors will try to pay off debts, again borrowing money at high interest rates.In an effort to return the invested funds, and get at least a minimum profit, they will introduce a policy of price hike of goods and services.Savings business concerns will be carried out by reducing the rate of employers.People will become insolvent.It turns out a kind of vicious circle, from which the output is not visible.What effect will the rise of the dollar, in the details no one can describe, but that the situation will affect everyone - it's a fact.Under attack in the first place will be the state whose policy is aimed at active development.
Return dollar least one-third distance traveled - this is the most optimistic, but it is not feasible at this stage the forecast.
Is it possible to improve the situation?
Correct the situation in the world, it is problematic as the dollar continues to increase.The consequences, as the situation will continue to worsen.The only thing that could somehow expand the event - this rise in oil prices at least until the target of $ 100 per barrel.While the US actively producing fuel, and the OPEC countries do not agree to reduce the volume of oil supplies to the international market, nothing will change.The incumbent may be only slightly smooth out the crisis and is not essential to facilitate the lives of citizens in the domestic economic level.
situations that had previously been afraid to think, now taken for granted.And blame the growth of the dollar.Projections in terms of active flowering of America already allow to prevent a situation where the exchange rate will correspond to 200 rubles per 1 US dollar.While the value of the currency to move confidently to the mark of 100 rubles for one dollar, and the public perceives the situation for granted.Understanding that America and its successful prosperity, in particular, the increase in active important economic indicators led to the global depression, it does not change anything.And what will the rise of the dollar in the end - it is a mystery.
