Risk Analysis

Any company, business, campaign presupposes the existence of certain risks that could affect the final result of their conduct.Implementation of business strategy involves changing the rights, duties and obligations of entrepreneurs, possible inadvertent and not previously used processes, as well as other consequences.

to choose the right set of actions to achieve business results, you need to consider the possible impact of adverse effects to the planned events are not lost all meaning.Any tactical (strategic) scheme should be subject to the application of risk analysis in order to minimize the latter.

risk analysis enterprise (company) starts with their assessment.To do this, select the method of assessment, which must meet the safety requirements of certain activities and legal regulators of this activity.

risk analysis requires the use of available information to assess the probability of certain events and the possible extent of their consequences.

As a rule, risk is negative events and circ

umstances, for example, losses during the venture, natural disasters with serious consequences, etc.However, the analysis helps to identify risks and their potential positive effects.It is necessary to detect future problems and prospects of development evaluation.

Risk analysis is conducted on the quantitative and qualitative levels (risk analysis methods are selected individually).

Quantitative analysis of the phenomena under investigation are assigned numerical (quantitative) values ​​used empirical data.At this level of analysis is very objective and accurate (this method) character.

Qualitative analysis includes an internal (saving) an assessment of the prevailing circumstances.At this level it may be subjective and related doubts.

Comparing these two levels of analysis should elaborate yet quantitatively.It can hold a variety of ways.

In the deterministic approach uses point estimates.In order to understand what can be the outcome in individual cases, various events are assigned specific values.For example, in the financial model can be considered such options: worst (future losses), best (future earnings) and the most likely (moderate relative profit).

In this case, the method has several disadvantages: it does not take into account a number of possible scenarios, and concentrated on a few major versions (all of which are regarded as of equal value);not sufficiently considered the factors that could affect the development of the situation, which leads to a simplification of the model.However, many businesses use just such an approach, despite the relatively low reliability of the results of such an analysis.

Stochastic Risk Analysis (Monte Carlo method) is more reliable.In this approach, the initial parameters are as ranges of values ​​(generate a probability distribution).At the same time different variables have different probabilities of the consequences.The values ​​are randomly selected, based on possible probability distributions.

samples is called an iteration.The results of the samples are recorded.For the simulation sampling procedure is repeated hundreds of times, so these results are much better able to reveal the probability of occurrence of anticipated events.Data such modeling can demonstrate not only the future events, but also to show the probability of their occurrence.The results can be represented graphically, as well as to reflect their sensitivity, that is, to show which of the variables most likely to impact.Using this method, it is also possible to show the relationships between the original variables.

preferred to conduct quantitative risk analysis on the basis of spreadsheets Excel, because the tools of this program allow you to add new functions to be able to distribute the probabilities and get the most accurate results.