population growth in the country is possible both by increasing the birth rate and mortality, and due to migration processes.The latter factor will not be considered.Between population growth and its reproduction there similarities and differences.The latter consists in the fact that people can continue to grow, and reproduce it already begins to decrease, and vice versa - the population may decrease, and its reproduction at the same time - to expand.
Currently, among the domestic experts, demographers actively discussed the role of mortality and fertility in the reproduction of the population in the country.Which factor of the two, given above, is dominant?What largely determines the replenishment and growth of the population?Which problem should pay attention in the first place - the low birth rate and a relatively high mortality rate?
Research modern domestic population scientists show that the role of today, though fairly high mortality rate in the change of reproduction is relatively low.Of course, one can not downplay the role of the fight against high mortality rates in the country.But the value of their demographic is small.Today, the main factor that has the most significant impact on the demographic future of our country is the birth rate.
problem of raising the birth rate in the country is quite acute.One of the key indicators of the demographic situation - the total fertility rate, defined as the ratio of births annually among the population over the same period per one thousand population.What is this figure?The birth rate is necessary for a more accurate assessment of the demographic situation, population projection and other.Several of these indicators.This whole group, not any one factor.This whole group of coefficients in the complex was analyzed.
most reliable indicator of the level of fertility is the fertility rate.It is characterized by the average number of births per woman on average over her life.The total fertility rate for the simple reproduction can not be lower than 2.17.If it is 4.1 or more, it - is high, and if less than 2.17 - low.
fertility rate worldwide fell from 4.95 births in 1950 to 2.56 in 2010. In some developed countries, this fertility rate was in the 60s.20th century, and by the end of the century it fell to 1.57.Maximum fertility rate in Niger - 7.74, the minimum in Macau - 0.92.
According to Rosstat, in 2009 this ratio in the country was equal to 1.53.The value in urban areas was 1.41, and in the countryside - 1.9.In 2011, the whole country it was equal to 1.61.
The birth rate in the districts: Central - 1.41;Northwest - 1.41;South - 1.68;Volga - 1.50;Ural - 1.61;Siberian - 1.63;Far - 1.57.
Birth rates can be divided into special (male and female), public and private (cumulative, age, etc.).
most common considered common:
N = n / (T * P) * 1000,
T - years (the period);P - population by the middle of the period (average annual population);n - the number of children born.
ratio depends on the intensity of fertility, it can give an error in the calculation.
Special factor:
F = n / (TW) * 1000.
crude bound to a special:
N = F * k,
to - the percentage of women 14-48 years in the whole population.This parameter ranges from 21 to 31, so the ratio of special analytical value close to the total.The level of the index is dependent on the age structure of women 14-48 years old.The birth rate in 14 years is close to zero, from 21 to 32 years and reaches a maximum value again approaches zero to 52 years.Special rate is calculated and sometimes men - (FM):
FM = n / (t * M) * 1000
Often it is slightly more than special, since the age of 14-51 years old men slightly less than women.Interval age for them is sometimes taken 14-55 or 14-58 years.In such cases, a special factor for both men and women is incomparable.
