Among the most talked about events in the past few years - the placing on the territory of Russia, or more precisely, near Ulyanovsk, transport base of the North Atlantic Treaty.As soon as her appearance was announced, society began to emerge thesis that NATO is going to deploy a full-fledged military presence in the Russian Federation.How these expectations were legitimate?
real question
Why would the Russian public has decided that opens a NATO base in Ulyanovsk?In March 2012, the press secretary of the Ulyanovsk region reported that negotiations were held with the participation of regional authorities with representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance for accommodation in NATO transit point - namely, the airport Ulyanovsk-Vostochny.
Later, there were reports that the Ulyanovsk region is interested in placing on its territory of appropriate infrastructure due to the use of transport capacities of local suppliers, as well as the prospects for the formation of new tax payments and the emergence of several thousand jobs.The regional governor also said that the project was preparing for a long time, and it is beneficial for the region.
At the level of the highest state institutions of power appeared explanation according to which the Ulyanovsk was to be used as a transit point for the aircraft of the North Atlantic Alliance.Was supposed to be transported in the use of its infrastructure are only certain kinds of goods - in particular tents, food and medicine.The target destinations of transportation were named Iraq and Afghanistan.NATO Military equipment to be transported through the Ulyanovsk.
public reaction
This information caused a wide public resonance.The population got reason to think that opens a real NATO base in Ulyanovsk, and began to organize protests.Theses criticizing the position of the Russian authorities began to actively spread in the media.Almost immediately, followed by comments from representatives of the Alliance.So, the head of NATO Information Bureau with operations in Moscow, confirmed that NATO forces can not completely be under Ulyanovsk.
Legislative framework cooperation
interaction between the authorities of the Ulyanovsk region, and NATO was under a legal framework.It was organized in accordance with the RF Government Regulation "On the procedure of land transit through the territory of the Russian military equipment to Afghanistan", adopted 28.03.2008 This source of law contains language in which relevant military cargo can go to Russia in a simplified procedure.However, many representatives of the expert community continued to insist that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization still enjoys the loyalty of the authorities of the Russian Federation, which is not based on the current legislation.
What I am afraid the public, the media and Russian experts?First of all, the fact that the so-called "transit point" could be easily converted into a full-fledged military base.
Could point to become a military base?
main argument of the supporters of this view is the fact that the infrastructure facility with a similar status - transit center, which held the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Kyrgyzstan - the US military offered to rename the center provide commercial transit.That is, as some have considered members of the public, is located on the territory of the Russian Federation formally has no direct relationship to the armed forces of the object, then NATO could convert its status to a less consistent with the national interests of Russia.
other concerns of the public was the fact that NATO countries have begun to show suspiciously unhealthy interest in Russia.
why NATO needed Ulyanovsk?
representatives of expert circles have pointed out that NATO could well take advantage of more favorable cost of cargo transit routes bypassing Russia.For example, it was assumed that the cargo containers must first be delivered to Ulyanovsk aircraft, then transferred to trains, then forwarded to the Baltic coast, and then - to the destination.Army NATO, analysts considered, it could use alternative routes that were much shorter.
For example, you could ask for transit through the Alliance's closest allies in the Middle East or Europe.Location allow NATO bases, so let goods through more economically viable routes.But for some reason, the Alliance began to look for other options to providing transit.NATO member countries have decided for whatever reason to use Russian territory, and it's not like many members of the public.
Experts fear a NATO cargo transit through the Russian Federation, also drew attention to the lack of tangible benefits for Russia in such cooperation, despite assurances from politicians that this could contribute to a jobs and increase tax revenues.
What is the benefit for Russia?
Members of the public have begun to doubt, so that NATO transit base in Ulyanovsk region can become a real factor in the positive development of business relations between Russia and NATO countries, primarily the United States.Americans, like the experts considered, with a small probability would be willing to evaluate the actions of Russia in the full partnership spirit.The experts found no obvious economic benefits for Russia in the placement of NATO transit facility near Ulyanovsk.
Similarly, members of the public do not see prospects for constructive cooperation between Russia and the Alliance, and also in the military sphere.
Were there any prospects of military cooperation?
Many analysts felt that the prospects of cooperation in the military field, on the contrary, could adversely affect the national security of Russia.According to experts, the NATO transit base in Ulyanovsk soon would require care and protection.Their implementation would involve any involvement of the military alliance, or hiring a Russian security structures.Also, experts feared that the infrastructure for the organization of air traffic, which is present in Ulyanovsk, can be used for the transit of drugs from Afghanistan.Another reason to be suspicious of analysts was the following: if in place of the corresponding transit facility were to come full military base of NATO, then it can be used as a place where aircraft of the Alliance will be able to carry out combat missions.And this is a geopolitical risks.In turn, any explicit preferences for Russia in terms of solving problems of national security experts do not see it.
Interests of the Russian Federation in ensuring the transit
In one of the theses that accompany the prospects of cooperation between Russia and NATO in the project near Ulyanovsk, it was suggested that the Russian Federation should support transit, as it is concerned, to the army, NATO continued to be in Afghanistankeep things spread out extremism under control.
But the activity of Americans, who were present in this Middle Eastern country for several years, has given rise to many experts come to different conclusions concerning the effectiveness of the location of military alliance in the region.Thus, the increased drug trafficking from Afghanistan as some analysts have estimated, a few dozen times.The level of terrorism has grown and extremist networks continue to work.
Washington has decided to strengthen its position
assessment of the prospects of interaction of Russia and NATO in the framework of the organization of transit through Ulyanovsk in Russian society were presented in a wide range.So, to meet the point of view according to which the agreement in Ulyanovsk interpreted as Washington's attempt to strengthen its position in the European Region, the Russian influence in order to use its resources for the benefit of the Alliance.Prices for the possible transit of the United States at the same time organized - so that 1 kg of cargo delivery to Afghanistan, according to some experts, was to manage the NATO budget of $ 15.
Airlines, which were considered as contractors - notably the "Volga-Dnepr", as analysts thought, hardly would refuse such offers.So start small - the organization of transit base - Washington would try, experts say, to extend the zone of influence of Russia in NATO, for example, proposing to buy from Russian suppliers of certain types of supply.What was of interest to not only the airline.
Position authorities
Many experts were quick to come to the conclusion that the Russian authorities - both at the level of a particular region, Ulyanovsk region, and in Moscow - fully support the project of cooperation with NATO.It alarmed the general public.Many, for example, did not like the fact that the governor of the Ulyanovsk region was an expert of the Moscow School of Political Studies - headed by its Board of Trustees was Roderick Braithwaite, who was the chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee in the United Kingdom.At the level of the federal authorities of the Russian-American project as a whole, is also supported.
What will the partners?
Once information about an agreement between Russia and NATO began to spread in the media, some representatives of the expert community felt that such a move could make a significant imbalance in the relationship between Russia and its closest partners - in particular, the states of the CSTO.A particularly sensitive point in this aspect could be that in 2011 the leaders of the CSTO countries agreed to ban the placing on its territory of military bases belonging to third countries.According to some analysts, at the closest allies of Russia could be unpleasant questions to the country's leadership on such an unusual precedent of interaction with an organization with which Russia often have notable contradictions in geopolitics.
expert draws attention to the fact that there is very little historical precedent that would indicate that NATO is seeking to build partnerships on an equal position with Russia.On the contrary, in the recent history of diplomatic communications are observed indicative precedents to the contrary.For example, it is known that in 1990 the Secretary of State of NATO has promised that the organization will not move to the East.But NATO base on the world map is known to include several countries of the former Soviet bloc.One of them, as analysts speculated, could soon appear on the Russian territory.
Well, the nature of the doubts and fears of experts then was quite clear.But if NATO forces were able to enter the territory of the Russian Federation in reality?
Abstracts and facts
fears of experts that we have said above, did not materialize.Moreover, the assessment of these theses was subsequently given not the most positive.For example, some members of the public were charged almost anti-state position.Either way, no military NATO base in Ulyanovsk not appear, although the same transit point yet been formed.
Regarding the thesis that in Russia there was no benefit in placing the corresponding object in its territory, found a counterargument.Thus, according to one version, the Russian Federation could use the fact of the location at a transit point for NATO in its own interests, as a potential tool to influence the position of the Alliance on various political issues.That is the fear of negative consequences have been just the same NATO officials, rather than their Russian counterparts.However, some political interest in the Russian Federation in the organization of cargo transportation through Ulyanovsk was still: if Russia refused to cooperate, the Alliance is likely to be appealed to Georgia.This would mean strengthening of NATO's military presence in the region.
Regarding the thesis that NATO had a more favorable alternative to the organization of cargo transportation, also found a counterargument.The fact that one of the key alternative routes - through Pakistan - could, in view of the changing geopolitical situation, close.Real alternatives to it in a reasonable time would not show up - even if you have activated the script using the transit bases in Georgia.
consider other important conclusions of experts, criticized the position of experts who feared the negative consequences of the presence of NATO transit point in the Ulyanovsk region.So, it emphasized that the goods which have to go through Ulyanovsk, are subject to mandatory inspection by Russian customs authorities.In the process, military experts from NATO countries do not participate.The main feature that characterized any NATO bases in Europe or in another region of the world - considerable sovereignty to the jurisdiction of the state, hosts the military from the Alliance.That is, access to a NATO base for the country's authorities allowed their construction is usually very limited.This criterion does not correspond to a transit base in Ulyanovsk.NATO could not prohibit monitor the activities of the corresponding object to the Russian authorities.
active use base
Transit Alliance base near Ulyanovsk was opened.But in practice it does not involved.At least publicly available facts that reflect the regular use of it, no.According to some analysts of NATO, in fact, it turned out to be still too profitable to cooperate with partners from the Russian Federation.This assessment of the present state of affairs very different.NATO officials expressed in the way that transport cargo via Russia is expensive, and Russian military experts believe that NATO countries still do not dare to put themselves at the mercy of the infrastructure in the Russian Federation.
Summary
So, what conclusions can we draw based on available information regarding the contract between NATO and the Government of the Ulyanovsk region?How consistent with the realities of the theses of some members of the public expressed concern considered precedent of interaction between Russia and the Alliance?
First of all, we can note: not even suggested that NATO forces - namely, soldiers, military equipment and related infrastructure will be located in the Russian Federation.The object in the Ulyanovsk region did not match featured a full-fledged military base - either by nature of goods carried or legal criteria.
Russia still could in the future be removed from posting on its territory, transit point, NATO political and, in some aspects - also an economic benefit.However, the Alliance had agreed on the potential use of appropriate resources in the Ulyanovsk region, is almost not involved in the RF infrastructure available.
no obvious threats to the national security of the Russian Federation accommodation transit point in Ulyanovsk NATO could bring, as all transported goods to be inspected by Russian customs.Presence of NATO military experts to implement any powers inherent in the work to ensure the full database is not anticipated in Russia.
Russian authorities, according to one version, played a useful from the point of view of geopolitics move: an agreement was concluded with NATO and all necessary conditions for the use by the Alliance of appropriate infrastructure.But the fact that NATO did not take this opportunity, as some analysts characterize his actions as not very constructive.At least in economic terms, since transporting cargo through Ulyanovsk proved too expensive, it is quite possible to calculate in advance.
