Macroeconomic stability - it is rather a coincidence than a pattern.Experience shows that there is no balance in the economy.Following a period of prosperity and development necessarily a period of recession, accompanied by unemployment.Moreover, economic cycles and different types of time intervals, and other features.So, for the duration they are short, medium and long.
short cycle determined Joseph Kitchin, British economist.He connected them with fluctuations in gold reserves.Intervals to be determined Kitchin, is forty months.
Wesley Mitchell, founder of econometrics, believes that the reason lies in the short cycle cash flow, and agreed with the previous frequency.
In fact, these cycles are related to the lack of equilibrium in the market consumption.Changes in the credit sector are the cause of them, so they appear as a credit crunch.
In the second half of the 19th century, Clement Clément Juglar, a French economist who studied the average cycle.Their cause he saw, too, in the sphere of credit.Clement Clément Juglar identified the frequency of secondary cycles of eight to ten years.
to the same type of cycles and cycles are building marked by Simon Kuznets.He tied them to the periodic (every fifteen to twenty years) renewal of housing.
Long (or long) cycles exist due to changes in infrastructure, energy and key technologies.Otherwise, the cycle is also called Kondratieff cycle, a scientist by the name of Russia - Nikolai Kondratieff.He studied the dynamics of the production of coal, steel, tin, and the average level of wages, prices, foreign trade and other indicators in the US and some Western European countries for 140 years (since the last two decades of the 18th century and ending twenty years of the 20th century).Kondratyev conducted econometric studies and determined that many cycles last 54-55 years, while having ascending and descending phase.
Downward phase when changing core technologies and technological structure, lasts from 20 to 25 years.
rising phase, when society is experiencing a flourishing economy, technology and science, lasts from 25 to 30 years.
equilibrium of the economy is absent for many reasons.First, macroeconomic instability is largely dependent on factors such as the technical equipment of the production.Frequent changes provoke short periods of recession and recovery, and those that are made less frequently (for example, the construction of new bridges and other structures), make these times longer.
However, macroeconomic instability is caused not only by this factor.On the problem of periodicity of fluctuations in the economy remained indifferent none of the economists of 19-20 centuries.Trying to understand the reasons for this phenomenon, they have created a lot of different theories.The main ones are explained by the instability of the economy as follows.
1. According to the first theory, the cyclical effect is generated by the action of the accelerator and multiplier.
2. Supporters of the political business cycle theory believe that macroeconomic instability arises as a consequence of actions of politicians in the money, budgeting, loans and taxes.
3. The defenders of the theory of equilibrium business cycle reasons see trend swings it in the short time period.
4. Scientists theorize real business cycle, suggest that macroeconomic instability occurs because of sudden changes in the different sectors of the economy, that is, when sharply changing production technology.
Each of these points of view to some extent correct the reasons for hesitation.But the general theory that would recognize all economic schools, today does not exist.
