Currency markets do not cease to violate the forecasts developed by analysts around the world.None of the experts failed to respond clearly to the question of what happens to the dollar.Formation course for one of the dominant currency pairs - EUR / USD - there is so chaotic that it is not only long-term but also short-term forecasts have lost all meaning.A huge number of important events, such as the risk of default of Italy and Spain, the fall ratings America, confuse investors.They are difficult to determine which of the factors of the economy will have the greatest impact on the market.Layering of events makes the accuracy of the predictions is almost unreal.However, against the background of the events taking place in the world, we can draw some conclusions.
How America is positioning itself?
again America has ceased to be the engine of the economy and has moved into the category of a source of problems.At the same time investors are no longer interested in the dollar and Treasuries, which recently dropped significantly in the rankings.Despite the critical situation in the United States and its huge foreign debt, interest and demand for currency formed the human factor.Any news, and any event lead to chaos and panic on the stock exchange and the value of the dollar begins to grow in relation to each of the currencies of the world.It plays an important role in this matter confident the US position on the oil market.
What the ECB is taking?
European Central Bank a few months ago was practicing tightening of monetary policy.Now there is a turn of events, carried out quantitative easing.If we consider that the Fed and characterized as soft policy actions by the authorities led to a sharp increase in supply of the euro against the dollar offer.This situation is to some extent it explains why there is a rise in the dollar.Such a policy is mechanical and has no fundamental implications.At the same time the experience of past years clearly shows the likely scenario of further developments.In the spring of 2011, at the deteriorating situation in the territory of the peripheral countries and the policy of quantitative easing in the US, with the withdrawal of liquidity from the ECB's economy had been an increase in the euro against the dollar.The lack of an unambiguous orientation does not prevent a high probability weakening of the euro against the dollar.
What's happening with the economy?
To understand what is happening with the dollar, and why he is actively growing in relation to all currencies of the world, we need to look at the economic situation in the world.In recent years, the top 4 of the Central Bank of the world have made a statement that they are starting to pursue a policy of quantitative easing.SNB began to cut interest rates to zero figure, he proceeded to interventions against the franc.Second ECB began active buying of government bonds of Spain and Italy on the open market.The Bank of Japan has been actively selling yen on the open market.Fed America made a statement that US interest rates at zero will be held for another two years.As a result, it formed a new wave of quantitative easing.
main directions of solving problems and rising dollar
central banks of the leading countries of the world indirectly, through their actions have pointed out that the growth in the economy of the strongest countries in the world will soon be virtually absent.High probability of negative indicators.Structured issues related to the high levels of consumption and more debt, governments have not yet been eliminated.And so, of course, out of the situation has not yet been found.Problems also, by and large, can only be solved in two ways:
- deflationary method.Layoffs, defaults, increase in savings rates, tax increases and so on.
- inflationary method.The release to the market for money (through their additional printing) to further depreciate debts and expenses.This is one of the prerequisites, which explains what is happening with the dollar.
World countries are actively using the inflation problem-solving methodology.This leads to an increase in the amount of euro yen and dollar in circulation.The number of assets, such as oil and food products remained at the same level.Purely mechanical aspect of the cost of almost all goods in the world will rise, and the economy will be characterized by weak growth.Taking into account the factor that the dollar is the reserve currency, it is clear that it will grow.Considering the question of what happens to the dollar, we can say that the current situation - no more than a reflection of the state of the world economy.
What led to the growth of the dollar in Russia superficial reasons
Quite a number of the experts associated with active growth of the dollar fall in oil prices.The situation is clearly illustrated by the devaluation of the ruble in the past year.If at the beginning of the year the dollar exchange rate corresponded to 35-37 rubles, but now the course has already crossed the mark of 60 rubles.Stopping and changing trend is not observed.In addition to the pricing policy in the oil markets, the growth of the dollar against the ruble fall affected the economies of both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the imposition of severe sanctions against the Russian Federation by the West.
Impact of human factors on the growth of the dollar
Investors flatly refused to invest their savings in a country with a precarious economic situation.Adjustments have been made and sanctions, which was a conversation above.A large contribution to the domestic situation and made the oligarchs, who assessed the situation in the country and in the world, promptly withdrew their money out of Russia.The rest of the people trying to keep their savings started to buy the currency, which provoked its rapid growth.Reduction of currency, a growing interest in it and several other factors make it possible to answer the question about what is happening with the dollar.
actions of the Central Bank - an inexplicable phenomenon
pressure on the national currency of Russia has sharply increased after meetings of the OPEC countries.The increase in oil production is not planned to stop.For the ruble this scenario promises only fall of the national currency.Forecasts Experts are disappointing, as the state regulator is almost completely removed from the responsibility for the ruble.The national currency went into free-swimming.According to experts, such a format action can bring the expected results, in particular the stabilization of the course, but only in those countries where most of the imports are from the industrial sector, and the economy is stable.Russia's economy does not match any of the above options, therefore, no reaction to the free course did not happen, quite the contrary, the situation has only worsened.
What brought a sharp change in the exchange rate?
looked at the situation and paying attention to what happens when the dollar is growing, we can say about the worsening problems in the population.The level of wages fell, it became harder to find a job, and representatives of small and medium businesses are forced to curtail their activities.Not ignored and the State's failure to fulfill its social obligations, reduction in social assistance programs, and the sharp rise in price of all goods and services.Devaluation does not subside, and the state does not take any active measures.When will the collapse of the dollar?When the situation stabilizes?None of the analysts and some that can not speak.At the same time as the only direction to address the situation considering denomination.
What analysts say?
to pressing questions about what happens to the dollar in 2014 was not able to give an answer.The situation is changing so fast that experts were difficult to keep track of it.In 2015, this trend continued.At the same time, none of the leading analysts even taken to make predictions, and to shed light on the situation.You can focus only on conversations in government and economic circles.Without taking into account the fact that people are terrified of what happens when the dollar is rising, following statements were made.Allegedly (stress!), The Russian government is already preparing for the dollar at the level of $ 100 and more.Previously, these figures seem unrealistic, today they are seen as quite possible.As for the hryvnia, most experts tend to believe that the rate should stabilize at 20-25 hryvnia, given that trading on the interbank market closed with the sale of 29 indicators and 32 hryvnia buy.There are projections that say that the course will soon reach values of 70-80 hryvnia for one dollar.Definitely answer the question, what happens to the dollar, no one can, in fact, like to give a forecast of its movement.While we can only wait and watch.
Who wins on the course?
studying the question of what happens if the dollar becomes more expensive, it is worth saying that the situation is not entirely negative.There is a category of people who receive income from a sharp rise in the currency.This can be attributed to brokers and traders.By manipulating exchange rates, this category of people feel quite well.Studying the dynamics of what is happening with the dollar, the currency market experts do not only have no difficulties in material terms, as a large part of the population.They derive benefit from the situation, which allows them to earn and thrive.On the world economic anomalous phenomena can be quite successfully enriched.