For several years in a row, some analysts and economic experts predict onset of the economic downturn in Russia.This situation entails a lot of problems for the average citizen, most of which - unemployment rate in the country.It studied this question an organization like Rostrud - federal service, administered by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate can not be considered as an absolute measure of the country's troubles.It all depends on how the calculations are made.The fact that not all categories of people can be confidently attributed to the number of unemployed.Why is it, and how to determine the level of unemployment in the country?Let's look in more detail.
Concepts and definitions
The term "unemployment" refers to a situation where the economically active in the population are not able to find a paid job and thus becomes a kind of load weights for the rest of the inhabitants of the state.As defined by the International Labour Organization, an unemployed person - a person who wants to work and has a disability, but it does not find a particular workplace.
In order to correctly calculate all indicators, first we need to divide the entire population into 2 groups:
1. Economically inactive (EN) - those citizens who can not be considered labor force for various reasons.These include:
- school students full-time education;
- pensioners, the base purpose of pension benefits is not important;
- persons engaged in housework, care for the sick, children, and therefore unable to work;
- people disappointed in finding a job and stop trying;
- just do not want to work or do not have such a need.
2. Economically active (EA) - the country's working-age population, already having a job or are in active search of her.This part also further divided into two more categories:
- busy (B) - citizens (regardless of age) who are employed and get paid for their work, as well as those who work for the good, for example, a family business, andpayment is not received;
- unemployed (B) - part of the working population, which has no classes, for which receives the income;in the case of job offers he is ready to begin work immediately;is actively looking for (sends job, goes to the employment center or a friend, visiting job fairs and so on. d.);trained (retrained) in the direction of the employment service.
In general we can say that the unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the latter category considered by us to the total number of EA (economically active population).But we'll talk about a little later.
Factors affecting the rate of unemployment
Prior to determine the level of unemployment in the country, is to talk about what affects this indicator.On the unemployment rate affects a huge number of factors, among which are a few basic:
- rates of growth or recession;
- demographics;
- productivity;
- the desire of the population to change employment or changing jobs;
- socially important causes: lack of education, pregnancy, alcohol or drugs, etc .;
- level of supply and demand for a particular kind of employment.
more detail examining these factors, there are several different types of unemployment.
What is it?
Anyone who wants to know how to determine the level of unemployment in the country, has to understand that this phenomenon can have different values depending on the species.Unemployment can be:
- voluntary.This type is associated with the fact that some people do not want to work under certain conditions, for example in cases where the reduced salary.Also in the economic theory, there is such a thing as a "trap of unemployment."This phenomenon occurs when for various reasons, the level of income a person does not change, regardless of whether it works or not.For example, when the amount of benefits paid by the state, is almost equal to the proposed salary.In this situation, the incentive to work a person does not exist.Forced
- .It is characterized by the fact that a person who has a desire to get a job and willing to wage, just can not find a job.This happens when real wages are higher than the one that contributes to the equilibrium of supply and demand.This leads to the fact that the sentence begins to exceed demand.
involuntary unemployment can be divided into 3 types:
- process occurs when mechanization (automation) leads to the production of surplus employees or their lack of qualifications;
- seasonal characteristic of some of the industries in which production is periodic;
- characterized by recurrent cyclical decline in production in a particular region or in the whole country.
more about the types of
Additional points can distinguish several types:
- Institutional occurs when the intervention of trade unions in the establishment of a State salary rates in violation of the laws of the market economy.
- Structural comes at eliminating obsolete economies and occurrence of new jobs requiring special skills.
- friction associated with a voluntary change of jobs, output (out) of (c) maternity leave, change of residence, and so on;usually short-term nature.
can also allocate another 2 types of unemployment: Register and hidden.First expressed by the ratio of the unemployed population, officially adopted by the registration in the employment service to the total number of the working population.The second describes the number of persons who were not registered or employed only formally, but in fact sent on vacation at his own expense due to lower production volumes.
The unemployment rate in the country: the formula for calculating
Each of these types has its own method of calculation, but we'll talk about more general version.The formula determining the level of unemployment in the country is expressed as the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.It looks like this:
K = (B * 100%) / EA,
where EA = s + B (B - employment; B - unemployed).
That's how determined the unemployment rate in the country.Statistics compiled is based on these calculations.
Economic consequences
Anyone who is interested in how to determine the level of unemployment in the country should also be aware that this phenomenon entails quite serious negative consequences.From an economic point of view, an increase in the unemployment rate leads to higher costs Goszanyatosti Fund for the payment of unemployment benefits to registered citizens.Increasing the number of the unemployed creates loss of payroll and income taxes, which is quite natural: no work, no pay, and hence the tax to pay no one.
Another economic consequences of unemployment can be considered a reduction in the purchasing power of citizens.In connection with the loss of permanent jobs, people are forced to reduce their spending to a minimum.
social factors
Among the social problems can be called progressive degradation of society.The man lost his job, loses not only the earnings.He loses skills, self-confidence, often depressed, making it difficult to further search.Especially dangerous is the phenomenon among young people, where the lack of experience and training of significantly reducing the probability of employment.In such circumstances, part of the younger generation may prefer to seek employment income received unearned, crime.
experience of developed countries shows that the market is not able to cope with the problem alone.There will certainly require government intervention, his help and assistance.
Statistics
According to economists, the problem of the lack of permanent work is more or less local.In large cities, it is almost not felt, while small and medium-sized towns, as it were on the periphery, the question is quite acute.These indicators have a negative impact on the unemployment rate in the country.
Statistics show that the lowest rate of unemployment of the population accounts for 1990 and of 5.2%.Presumably, the influence of the Soviet Union's command economy which partially solves this problem.But the maximum value of the figure reached in 1998 (13.2%).
fair to say that the impact of public policy beneficial to these indicators, and by 2007 the unemployment rate in the country (Statistics confirms this) was reduced to 6.1%.In the future, these figures varied of +/- 1.5-2% by the end of 2014 amounted to 5.3%.
Forecast for Russia 2014-2015
And what about today?How has the unemployment rate in the country?In Russia, according to experts, there has recently been a steady growth of this phenomenon.This is due to a decrease in rates and volumes of production and, as a consequence, reduction of staff.And if in January were recorded figures of 5.5% is projected economists, by the end of 2015 the official unemployment rate will grow rapidly and reach 6.4%.
noteworthy that monitors IMF economists almost completely coincides with the opinion of Russian experts.The reasons for such a situation in the labor market is certainly a crisis in the Eurozone, as well as, of course, the political component.Economic sanctions against Russia is clearly a negative impact on certain sectors of the economy, as well as repel a huge number of investors.Consolation is the fact that, according to the IMF, by 2016 the situation stabilized somewhat and the unemployment rate will drop by as much as half a percent.
