question of what will happen to oil interests a large percentage of the world population.Enhanced interest in the formation of prices for "black gold" will explain their influence not only on the economy of many countries, but also on the world economy as a whole.
Prices 2014
In the second half of 2014 the cost of raw materials was at the level of 110 dollars, which is perfect not only Russia but also other countries exporting fuel.Russia's budget was replenished by vigorous activity the largest oil companies in particular, such as "Gazprom".Oil rose in price until mid-summer 2014 and peaked at around $ 115.The situation is similar in the US, OPEC countries and some European countries.With the end of summer 2014 and the end of December the whole world watched speedy fall in oil prices, which reached a level of $ 60.By the end of the winter was recorded multi-year lows at around $ 48.At that time, even the world's experts could not partial safe to say that the oil will be in the near future, since all the predictions made before, were almost completely wrong.
Factors stimulate drop of oil, and their influence is now
Trying to make a prediction for the future, many experts are repelled from the factors that, in their view, led to a drop in prices.You can talk about the following points:
- Reducing the rate of growth of the world economy.The EU and China have been suspended in the development, Japan is in a recession.Industry states require less fuel, resulting in a sharp decline in demand.A large quantity of fuel and a small interest in it stimulate a fall in prices.Experts forecast a slight improvement by the end of 2015.
- OPEC countries, since September 2014, have significantly increased the volume of fuel produced to a level of 30.5 million barrels per day.Saudi Arabia has officially stated that it is not intended to reduce the quotas of "black gold", even if its price in the world market will be only $ 20.
- growth of oil production in the United States to a level of 8.9 million barrels per day.
- Most of the competition has become the basis for discounts on the purchase of fuel.In a tough struggle for the consumer in 2015, agreed to concede in price countries such as Qatar and Iran, Saudi Arabia.
- Overall demand for hydrocarbons is reduced due to the development in Europe of energy-saving technologies.The trend in the coming decades will not change.
Considering all the factors together, they suggest that the end of 2015 the situation on the world oil market will not be back on track.Most experts suggest increasing the cost of fuel to a level of $ 75.In the market of May 5, 2015 was fixed the price at $ 70.
cost of oil in 2015, taking into account the decisions of governments
Many experts, trying to make a prediction about what will happen to oil this year, repelled only by making governments of the participating countries of the world oil market.Saudi budget was drawn up taking into account the fact that the cost of a barrel of oil will not fall lower than in 2014.For this reason, many experts are betting that the fuel for the entire 2015 will trade at $ 99.After the collapse of the market the country's budget has been completely revised.The stake was made at $ 60 per barrel of oil.Field of the official publication of the budgets began to appear forecasts that the 2015th the price of fuel price will not exceed the mark of 65 dollars.This binding to Saudi Arabia due to the fact that the state is a leader of the cartel called OPEC.
as discussed at an international conference in April 2015?
in April 2015 in the Texas hosted an international conference, in which actively discussed issues related to oil.In his speech, the head of the company "Lukoil" sounded words that fuel prices will no longer crawl down.Businessman Vagit Alekperov pointed out the fact of achievement and penetration rates to historic lows, which is directly indicative of the unlikely continuing trend.According to Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie, in the first half of 2015 prices went down because of bad forecasts, the publication of the third quarter of 2015.The prerequisites of the phenomenon he attributes an extremely sharp rise in the US dollar.Jeff focuses on the fact that the situation has stabilized somewhat.In his opinion fully agreed Kahenyan Juha, who served as deputy director of the division of the IMF in Asia and the Middle East.Both experts are inclined to further price increases, which is predicted and the IMF.Recall that in late August 2014 experts focused on the cost of oil by the end of 2015 in the range of $ 99.
second side of the coin
considering the question of what will happen with the oil in the future, does not agree with the opinion Kahenyana and Kerry, and refutes the IMF forecast Kozybaev Aydar, a representative of the National Bank of Kazakhstan.He says that the world oil prices will not stay at around $ 99 in the near future, in fact, she did not even reach that level.Economist relies on $ 85 per barrel of Brent crude oil and 75 dollars a barrel for Brent WITI.His assumption specialist based on a strong influence on the situation in Russia, countries such as Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are importing State.Oversupply of oil has led to falling prices, and a spring to stabilize the situation in a number of significant implications for the restoration of the price level.The term trend will continue, despite the fact that the maximum of 2014 (105 - 110 dollars per barrel) and can be reached.
Most shock predictions in 2014: the market against the budget of
Even in 2014 the most terrifying forecast, which saw only a few global analysts, including Russia's, was that, in accordance with which oil quotesdescend to the level of 60 dollars.For the most part, experts agree with the price of "black gold" in 2015 at $ 90.Less stress scenario assumes a reduction of Urals oil to 91 dollars in 2015 and to $ 90 for 2016 - 2017.Presumably, this would lead to a decrease in GDP in 2015 to the level of 0.6% with recovery to a level of 1.7 - 2.8% already in 2016 - 2017.Beyond that, as the situation unfolded into the (falling below the level of 49 dollars per barrel in January), is the whole world.The oil market has behaved in an unpredictable manner.
Where to find the truth?
All forecasts are now able to give analysts vary widely, from extremely optimistic to stress.OPEC countries are not going to reduce the quotas of fuel, considering the scenario with a fall in prices to $ 20, as claimed, that this situation will not change its tactics.The IMF is confident in the future and believes that by the end of 2015, oil quotes will please the values in the range of 90 - 99 dollars.Most market participants simply monitor the situation and avoid important decisions.You can say that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as evidenced by the situation on the market today.Despite the fact that oil production by countries in the last 3 - 4 months did not change the price of fuel has leveled off a bit.So, as of mid-June 2015 Brent crude stands at close to $ 65 per barrel, despite the fact that the tested level of 70 dollars per barrel.
Statistics Monthly 2015
So, where do go in the future oil market?By studying the fundamental factors, many experts say about one and the same.Exports of crude oil in many countries remain at the same level until the end of 2015, which gives a good reason to talk about the following values:
- In early June, the price of oil averaged $ 66 at the end of the month it will stop on the record of 69 dollars.It is predicted a maximum of $ 76 and a minimum of $ 60.During the first two weeks of June mirrored vertices not yet been achieved.
- July forecast more promising.It will start at around $ 69 and will end with a price of $ 72.The maximum and minimum levels will be at 77 dollars and 61 dollars.The average price - $ 71.
- From September to December, the price range, despite the fact that oil production by countries can be reallocated due to the development of deposits of resources in the Russian Arctic and revitalization projects in the US, will vary from $ 55 to $ 77.
What awaits the world market in 2016 - 2017?
Not stable situation in the world does not prevent a major global analysts, including representatives of the company "Gazprom", oil and its movement seen not only in the near future, but in the long run.Comparing multiple projections, we can say that during 2016 the catastrophic decline of the market will not.On the contrary, the situation will continue to improve.Experts recommend to start from a low of $ 68 in January and expect a maximum of $ 105 in December.In 2017, the situation will not change.In March, April and May may be reduced to 63 dollars per barrel, with a further reduction to $ 102 in June.
most recent forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is set to decline in oil prices in 2016 by 10%.The toughest outlook suggests a price of $ 50 by the end of 2015.Complete restoration of the price range the end of summer 2014 is expected in 2018, but not earlier.Information Document was presented to the public April 10, 2015, with paneer its change and modernization, adaptation to the situation in the near future.In the direction in which sent the price of oil, the economy can impose a world-class print at any time, especially if we take into account the redistribution of shares of the international oil market.Sticking to one of the officially published opinions is not necessary, since the events that may happen in the world, will correct the situation with interest.The world's major oil companies such as "Gazprom", oil is not able to send in the right direction.It remains only to follow events in the world.They can account to some extent explain how the oil quotes will be formed.
