end of 2014 turned out to be very difficult for Ukraine.In the broad masses and the media quite often you can hear that in the near future the country will be unable to pay its bills, and default in Ukraine will be inevitable.The prerequisites for such a trend are serious problems in the financial sector.Panic formed due to a substantial reduction in resources due to which the state and had to fulfill their obligations.
Facts
As of January 31, 2014 the foreign debt of the country amounted to 222.4 billion hryvnia, or 27.8 billion dollars.This figure corresponds to 38% of the total debt, which the country and ensures that equates to 585.3 billion hryvnia, or 73.2 billion dollars.By early 2015, the State was required to pay about 12.7 million hryvnia, and it is only guaranteed external debt.In accordance with the state budget, which is itself the author Yatseniuk calls far from ideal, in January had to pay in the amount of 6.03 billion hryvnia only on debt servicing.On payment of principal had just 6.67 billion hryvnia.
what causes the excitement of experts?
debate among experts about whether the default will be held in Ukraine or not, have been caused by a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves of the country, which is used to service foreign debt.You can talk about the reduction of assets in November 2014 compared with October at 20.82%.If we translate the figure in the currency format, it will be 2.621 billion dollars.Negatively reacted to this statement by the agency Moodys, which employs 4,500 experts from 26 countries.It made the forecast of default in Ukraine, operating by the fact that over the last 10 years, SMP has reached its record low.
What does the government do?
Despite the fact that the probability of default in the country is considered by many experts with high probability, the government has in this respect their beliefs.The head of the National Bank Gontareva says that the situation is under control, as the result of cost overruns - is an attempt to maintain the exchange rate at 8 hryvnia for one dollar and support of the military conflict in the east.Unsuccessful repeated attempts to settle the conflict, which ended in failure, have become a prerequisite for the fall Ukrainian Eurobonds.Despite the run-up adopted December 29, 2014 of the budget and the actual situation, according to which the budget deficit amounted to 63.67 billion hryvnia, the government early this year actively saying that all the missing funds.However, only one fact of lack of money to service debts is already talking about a full-scale financial crisis.Coping with the fulfillment of the obligations on the debt will be possible only with the active support of external creditors.
What is the default?
default in Ukraine can be considered as a protective barrier that is able to protect the country from total economic bankruptcy.The mechanism provides for procedures allowing the borrower to repay the debt on the optimized circuit.You can talk about debt restructuring, including the deferred payments until such time as the country is not out of the crisis.In general, the phenomenon will make it possible to restore the internal economy of the state.With regard to the theoretical side of the issue, it has only one mention of the term causes panic in the society.
Which phenomena experts say due to a default in the Ukraine?
If the official default in Ukraine will be announced, will begin to appear massive lawsuits from the public and business representatives towards the banks and funds guaranteed deposits, in the direction of organizations from the banking sector, who try to manipulate the situation.According to experts, will increase the amount of litigation between the parties as a consequence of the reduction of honest taxpayers in the country.The consequences of default in Ukraine is very difficult to estimate, since the difficulties in the banking sector, the state will impose its mark on every branch of activity and development of the state.
Outflows only complicates the situation
Basil Yurchishin, who served as an expert on macroeconomics, it says that the situation in the country has shaken sufficiently large outflows.The first thing that scares off foreign investors - a military conflict in the east.You can talk about rather low ratings of the country at the international level.State Statistics Committee reports that in the period from January to September, the state's economy was invested only 1.8 billion hryvnia.It was during this period a decline in foreign direct investment growth of 14.9%.It is directly related to the devaluation of the hryvnia, which, according to official data provided by the National Bank of the country amounted to 58.9%.The government calms the population that the country is not without the support of America, China and the EU, by tranches which are able to solve all the problems of the state.Despite the circumstances, almost no one can say that Ukraine is on the verge of default.Bets are placed on the ability to bypass the phenomenon due to the strong support of partner countries.
What awaits Ukraine in the future?
experts, examining the question of whether there will be a default in Ukraine, find it difficult to give a definitive answer.Further developments will depend entirely on the decision of the world's countries in terms of aid.If the event will take place, although the country will get a chance through a long rehabilitation re-enter the world stage, but it will have to face some difficulties.Studying the question of what it means for Ukraine to default, we can talk about the fall of the international rankings, hence a massive outflow of investor capital is inevitable.World countries stop giving loans, funding will be available only at high interest rates, and the provision of collateral.Falling exchange rates, the decline in imports, the reduction in real incomes, rising unemployment - is just basic, what experts do not stop talking.Negative impact will be imposed on the banking segment, in particular happen the closure of many financial institutions, blocking customer accounts, the increasing complexity of lending to the real economy.There is a possibility that some of the banks and securities market participants will be removed from all obligations, following the example of the state.Rising unemployment is inevitable.Experts, soberly assessing the situation, note the presence of the full range of phenomena, more and less pronounced in the economy today.
