phrase exit poll was nowadays quite popular, especially in periods that coincide with the elections.But what does it mean?
turn to dictionaries
Exit translated to English means going, poll - vote count, vote.Consequently, both words together can be interpreted as a vote when leaving the area.
Russian spelling of this phrase is not settled yet.The press and other sources, there are a variety of options - from the "exit poll" to "exit poll".But the latter, though registered in the spelling dictionary Lopatin, it is the least successful.The English do not pronounce the "c" and "z", and a doubling of the letter "l" seems out of place.Therefore, it seems reasonable to many to write this phrase at all in English.
Why is all this necessary procedure
opinion poll after voting in recent years has been heavily used in the sociological practice different countries.On condition of anonymity, the voters have just left the polling station, ask for whom they voted.It is expected that the majority of respondents have no reason to lie, respectively, show the results of the polls have a rough picture of the outcome of the election and may to some extent serve as a control.In addition, these data allow us to collect and analyze information about the electorate (which segments of the population prefer to each candidate).Another problem that can solve exit poll - the operational forecast of voting results.And finally, in the electoral process survey data are widely covered television and the press.This increases the entertainment of the electoral process and attracts the attention of all sectors of the population.
From the history of polls
first seek the views of voters at the exit from the polling station took place in 1967 in the United States (elected governor of Kentucky).In 1972, the exit poll was conducted in the country-wide in the choice of the American president.The methodology of this activity has been developed and tested US Mitofski, director of elections and public opinion polls.Over the following years, the center has repeatedly reorganized, resulting in the company formed Mitofsky International, began to conduct similar surveys in other countries.Such clarification will of the citizens quickly gained popularity since the organizers were given important information.And that is especially valuable in the several time zones (USA, Russia) efficiency of data acquisition in the region allows voters election headquarters to respond to the situation in those districts where the elections have not yet taken place, possibly even adjust your strategy.That is, the survey is a real instrument of influence on the election process.
Believe it or not?
However, not all researchers believe that the exit poll - a successful means to verify the transparency of the elections.Reason not to trust too few exit polls.First - how honest people who gave the answer?In the context of full democracy to them, probably to be believed, but because people are often afraid to speak the truth or refuse to answer.It should also take into account the mentality of the population and its willingness to take contact.For example, there are cases where people ask questions during the Russian presidential election, and then shared their experiences on social networks.Response to them was often rude or statements like: "Voted for Chuck Norris."Is it possible in this situation to argue that the survey data reflect the real picture of the vote?
And here's another interesting argument Russian sociologists.If the credibility of the electoral system in the country is high enough, then in such surveys as a means to monitor the vote, society too and needs.If the special trust in the government there, and there are suggestions of a possible falsification of elections, who is hurt in the same way to rig and exit poll?
Again, on the same subject
So what exit poll - the benefit to the community or a useless idea?Opponents of such polls are many arguments.Now before the election decided to conduct a preliminary survey of the population (often with the help of Internet technologies).But such information is made public before the vote, it could seriously affect its outcome.The voter, who saw that his candidate does not use the rating may change his mind, if not ignore the elections.Of course, such a situation can not be considered correct.In addition, there is a great temptation to falsify survey data to create a situation suitable to one of the candidates.
Yet to similar surveys related more with a "plus" than "minus", and trust their data.For example, in Ukraine during the 2004 presidential election, there was a scandal associated with the divergence of these exit poll, conducted by various sociological centers, as well as the official election results.The scandal ended the first Maidan and the third round of the presidential election, which showed a completely different result.But in the presidential elections in 2014, the actual result of the vote is almost completely coincided with that obtained in the surveys.So the exit poll - it's interesting.
