This year, the Russian economy is experiencing tremendous international pressure.Practical measures applied by foreign countries to Russia, expressed in various kinds of sanctions.What is their nature?What is the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy?What opportunities are opened at the Russian Federation due to changes in the external environment?
essence sanctions
According to the expert community in the common point of view, the imposition of sanctions against Russia due mainly to the political position of Russia on the Ukrainian crisis.Western states, most of which included into NATO, felt unacceptable actions of the authorities of the Russian Federation in respect of the Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine, where, in the opinion of the Atlantic bloc, are operating pro-Russian militias.
As such sanctions are economic and political.In the first part of this different kind of embargo on the second - making officials and legal entities in the relevant sanctions lists.
periodization sanctions
Consider the sequence in which carried sanctions against Russia.Experts believe that the first package of measures was put into action immediately after Russia backed a referendum in the Crimea and the region has included in its membership.Western states have considered the authorities of the peninsula, as well as the position of the Russian Federation illegal.Subsequent sanctions coils were connected, as analysts believe, with further escalation of the situation in Ukraine.
sanctions: a threat to the Russian economy
What could be the consequences of sanctions for the Russian economy?Experts point out that the greatest difficulties can arise in imports.The fact that the Russian economy is quite dependent on the import of high technologies, machine-building products, medicines, largely and food.The main partners of Russia's imports are just the EU countries, those that have applied sanctions against Russia.If the economic component of the relevant measures will become systemic in nature, the shortage of imported products, experts say, do not take long.
in finding investors
Impact of sanctions on the Russian economy can clearly be traced in terms of attracting foreign investment.In particular, may be affected credit ratings of the Russian Federation, which are the main indicator of the country's attractiveness for foreign capital.The result of reducing the inflow of investments may be slowing GDP growth, economists believe.Russia's economy today, analysts say, depends heavily on foreign capital.RTS and MICEX fill liquidity largely by attracting foreign investment.
However, experts say, foreign capital may not necessarily have a Western origin.It is likely that the location of investors from the EU and the US will take, say, the capitalists of the countries of BRICS, which, according to many analysts, is now Russia's allies.And because lower ratings within the methodologies developed in the US and the EU can not play a significant role in terms of attracting investment.
sanctions and the banking system
What can trace the influence of sanctions on the Russian banking system?In this area, according to analysts, the potential for the emergence of the greatest threats to the country's economy.The fact that the Russian banking system is so integrated into the world (which, in turn, is largely controlled by the US and its Western allies) that foreign financiers actually have access to the key mechanisms for managing them.Scores of American and European banks are actively used by Russian businesses.And if the credit and financial organizations of Western countries decide to freeze the assets, it may cause, experts say, significant damage to the Russian enterprises working with foreign banks.
sanctions (by the EU) have been imposed on the largest Russian bank financial institutions, such as VTB, Sberbank, VEB.In particular, citizens of the EU from the beginning of August, it was prohibited from acquiring securities of some species of these institutions.According to analysts, in practice, this means only one thing - these Russian banks are no longer able to access the capital markets.And because they may have problems with the payment of current debt obligations, registration of new loans and investments.
VISA - in Russia?
One of the most illustrative case law concerning such aspects as the impact of sanctions on the banking system of the Russian Federation, can be considered a lock largest payment systems of the world - VISA and MasterCard - credit cards of several financial institutions in Russia, such as "Sobinbank" Bank "Russia "," SMP Bank ".To pay using international acquiring channels, customers of these banks could not.However, experts agree that is completely disconnected from the Russian market of VISA and MasterCard are not.If this happens, there is a threat to the stability of the EU financial system.
Another consequence of the sanctions in the banking sector could be to limit lending to Russian companies in the West.Terms of loans from Western banks, in many cases, rather than within the Russian Federation (mainly due to lower interest rates).However, the practical impact of sanctions on businesses in terms of credit may not be as important if entrepreneurs can create synergies with other markets in terms of loans.One of the most promising Russian experts sees the Chinese version.
Banks overweening?
help Russian banks under the Central Bank is ready to sanctions.In particular, the media have the statements of the Central Bank that, if necessary, for this purpose may be involved international reserves.The largest banks of the Russian Federation announced that they are ready to sanctions.Management of the Savings Bank, in particular, has declared that the institution has adequate resources, management experience and level of expertise to continue in the current economic and political conditions."Gazprombank", and VTB have also assured the public that the actions of the US and the EU will not affect the financial stability of the institutions.Thus, the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy in terms of the banking sector may not be as significant.
Sanctions and possible
According to some economists, the EU sanctions - a good excuse for the establishment of affairs in the Russian economy, which, by virtue of a strong orientation to the export of oil, is not developing as fast as it could.
greatest potential, analysts say, is present in just the same import.Russia has enough resources - both in terms of production capacity and raw materials, and in terms of the scientific component to produce the bulk of goods imported from abroad.
potential response
What are the mechanisms by which Russia could oppose sanctions?First of all, it is worth noting adopted in 2006, long before they began to develop the explicit premise of the Ukrainian crisis, the law concerning special measures of economic nature, which can be used in case the country will experience the need to respond to the wrongful acts that are a threatthe interests of Russia, at the level of international relations.Therefore, the basic legal resources that can be deployed in response to the imposition of sanctions against Russia, are present.Moreover, there is evidence that the structures of the Federal Assembly of the work on the creation of new instruments, which can expand the range of the RF countermeasures under international pressure.In particular, it is believed that the new laws may include provisions allowing confiscation of assets located in the Russian Federation foreign companies (both public and private).
response to sanctions
Although the reasons for the imposition of sanctions the Russian authorities considered, based on the comments of senior officials, unreasonable and contrary to logic, countermeasures against Western countries, comparable to the actions against Russia, were all employed.In particular, during the first wave of measures relevant international authorities of the Russian Federation decided to form a list of persons having the citizenship of the West, who are denied entry to the territory of the Russian Federation.
As of VISA and MasterCard, as we have said above, ceased to serve the card several Russian banks, the Russian authorities decided to intensify the work in the first place, on the development of the national payment system, and secondly, to attract to the Russian market ChineseMPS - UnionPay, which could become a serious competitor to the current world leaders.This would cause significant VISA and MasterCard, according to some economists, the damage - in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
most serious package of countermeasures was the Russian ban on imports to Russia a huge range of food products, mainly food industry issued by the European Union (as well as companies in Canada, Australia and the United States).In early August, the Russian president issued a decree.The list of goods fell under the embargo amounted to a variety of foods - meat, dairy products, fish, vegetables, fruit.In monetary terms, the total volume of corresponding imports as analysts estimated, at the time of the introduction of countermeasures was equal to $ 9 billion.
Also in August, have been adjusted in light industry.In particular, in the segment of public procurement was banned from fabrics, leather and fur.However, experts did not consider this step the Russian authorities a direct response to the sanctions as an appropriate restriction affected the supply of all countries, not counting those that, along with the Russian Federation are included in the Customs Union, and not just the West.
Consequences "antisanktsy" EU
The fact that Western sanctions in the Russian economy can lead to problems at the level of imports, we have already said, citing the example of several industries.But will thus feel good foreign exporters themselves say, the same engineering products.Those who supplied equipment to Russia?What are the possible effects of sanctions on the EU?According to one analyst reports Reuters, comfortable Europeans most likely will not.One of the most active partners of Russia in the economic sphere - Germany.There figures: about 300 thousand. Jobs in Germany anyway reflect employment in the areas of cooperation with Russia.Experts believe that German exports to Russia could be reduced by several tens of percent (mainly in the field of mechanical engineering).However, it is believed that a significant impact on the overall economy of Germany in general worsening of relations with Russia will not.Just because the current Russian share in the total foreign trade of Germany is now no more than 4%.Thus, the impact of sanctions on businesses in Europe sees the experts sufficiently limited.
Food "antisanktsii"
Aspects relating to the most serious, according to experts, the Russian authorities countermeasures - to ban the import of products from the EU.Many analysts believe that European farmers have suffered from the embargo is very important.Deliveries to Russia for many of them guarantee profitability, and for some businesses and all major sales channel.Find buyers in other markets, analysts say, the food industry enterprises from the EU will be able to very soon.And so in the near future of the business is probably unlikely to be profitable.
Foundation Europe
However, some experts believe that the consequences of the embargo for the EU may not be as significant as, in particular, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.The share of exports of agricultural products from the EU to Russia - at least 5% of the economy of this political union.This is despite the fact that Russia - the second volume to the EU market in this segment.Also, there is evidence that the EU is going to compensate for possible losses on "antisanktsy" on the part of the Russian Federation, using a specially created fund of funds.However, its value, according to analysts, is not too impressive - 400 million euros.The country, which may suffer from "antisanktsy" stronger than others - Finland.By virtue of geographic proximity it is the state and the Russian Federation have close economic ties.Approximately 25% of Finnish exports go to Russia.However, the share of food in it - less than 3%.
Prospects self
What has been the impact of sanctions on Russian agriculture?Some experts believe that the embargo on food producers from the EU has opened up tremendous opportunities Russian agrarians.In many segments of the liberated market niches, or at least become much less intense.There is a view that farmers from Russia is not ready for a sharp increase in production volumes, and in this case there are two possible scenarios: filling the niche by suppliers from those countries that do not fall under the embargo, or that is less desirable for the economythe Russian Federation, the occurrence of appreciable trade deficit.As a consequence, the rise in prices.
Russia's economy today, many experts believe, is not yet able to fully ensure the effective import substitution - including in the field of agriculture.Analysts point out that the increase in selling prices of the various products was in quite soon as possible since the introduction of "antisanktsy."According to analysts, the end of 2014, some types of headings can rise in price by more than 30%.On average, the products form the basic basket, the rise in prices may be about 15%.There is a possibility, analysts believe that the fall quality products on the shelves.In Russia, as well as in many countries, where expected to import goods, manufacturing standards are not as strict as in Europe.
