word "foresight" comes from the English «foresight».Translated, it means "to look into the future."Today foresight - this is the most effective method, which is used to form the priorities in the sphere of economy, science, technology and society.
According to the results obtained using a tool such projects are special road maps.They also allow us to solve the issues of formation of the future.
definition
Forsyth - an assessment of the long-term prospects of technology, science, society and the economy, which is done systematically.The aim of these projects is to define the strategic direction regarding new technology and research, which in the future are able to bring the greatest possible benefits of socio-economic nature.
story of
Forsythe - a methodology that is relatively new.There was this notion about fifty years ago.The method of "foresight" first appeared in the projects developed by the American corporation RAND.It was there that solves the problem in the identification of promising technologies in the military sphere.
In the fifties of the last century, the company's specialists are faced with the problem of lack of commonly used methods of forecasting.And they went their way.RAND specialists have developed a method of Delphi.Later on it became based, many foresight studies.
Further development method was worked out by the Americans in the seventies of the last century.It was then that the method of foresight first emerged nationally.One of his first estimated in the government of Japan.Not so long ago in this country we have summed up the eighth national foresight.
Similar studies carried out in almost all countries outside the EU, as well as in China.More recently, in the list and entered Russia.
new stage in its development Forsyth got in the nineties of the last century.This was the period when the technique was beyond technology and science.Forsythe began to use to assess the promising markets.Not so long ago method was used in the forecasting of social processes and in the formation of the structure, part of the national innovation system.
Application
foresight method used to develop long-term strategies for the development of technology, science and economy.At the same time the results are aimed at improving competitiveness, as well as the ability to maximize the development of the economic and social sphere.
Forsythe - a method in which the emphasis on consensus among the main actors the most important strategic directions.This is done by organizing their ongoing dialogue.
However, it should be borne in mind that foresight - it's not guessing the future.Viewed method based on another.It proceeds from the possible options for the future, which may occur under certain conditions.
Destinations foresight
Forecasting Methods used for monitoring the technological and global trends.It has a direct impact on the construction of all public policy.One of the areas of foresight is the formation of an expert organization, the reference policy.This prediction should indicate the images of the progressive national development.
results
product of the institutions of foresight are so-called road maps.They represent the official document reflecting the likely path of development of the state in the future.On the basis of these maps is the formation of long-term priorities in various spheres of public life and politics.These documents serve as key tools for government officials, because they are the basis for the development of objectives and development strategy;when important decisions are in conflict or in problem situations;to coordinate public and political activities of the state.
methods
greatest popularity in recent years received a prediction method, called Delphi.It is based on data from a survey conducted among a large number of experts (2-3 ths.), As well as the organization of feedback through the second stage of the survey.
In studies often is used just such a method of foresight.A variation of the method, called Delphi has found its use in Germany, Japan, Britain and some other countries.To conduct the survey selects only highly skilled experts and an expert committee in separate directions.At the same time it developed a list of the social, economic and scientific and technological achievements, which are expected in the long term (up to twenty-five to thirty years).
participating in the study, experts are assessing each of the topics, identifying the necessary resources.Installed potential barriers that may arise in the practical implementation of important ways.
There is another method of foresight.A variation of the method of forecasting the future, which is called the "critical technologies", actively used in France, USA, Czech Republic and some other countries.Formation of the required data is based on the knowledge of highly skilled experts.They make a list of critical technologies in the studied areas.Typically, to participate in such a Foresight involves not more than two hundred experts.In this perspective prediction does not exceed five to ten years.
Almost every Foresight project is made using the method of expert panels.This method is considered to be the base.To implement it formed a group of experts from twelve to twenty people.They are invited to a certain theme and given a few months to think about possible futures.This provides the ability to use new information and analytical development and materials.
feature of the method of expert panels is opening up the process of foresight for many people.The main advantage of the process - the interaction of representatives of various fields of activity and scientific disciplines, which in other circumstances is very difficult to organize.
In the late seventies of the last century by Motorola developed a new method of forecasting.He called road mapping.The main area of application is the development of long-term strategies for large companies or technological sectors.The essence of this method lies in the planning of all the main components of the business.This applies to finance and marketing, technology and infrastructure of derivatives, market and service.The main advantage lies in the road map the development of a coherent long-term vision of the development goals pursued by the company.
choice of method
approaches that can be used in Foresight projects are constantly updated.There are more and more new techniques.Their choice depends on many factors.These include time and resource limitations, access to information sources, etc.However, a key condition, which ensures the success of the project - the use of such a method that would ensure the most efficient operation of the group of experts involved.
Conclusion So, what foresight?This particular technology, which is produced by the long-term forecasting.In other words, it is a certain way to build a balanced, coherent and responsible sample of our future.Forsyth 2030, 2050 and so on. D. Is the main result of research.
vision of the future is reflected in the various documents which are the basis for the development of long-term programs and strategies of development.
