Due to the unstable economic situation in the country, the question as to what will happen with the hryvnia in 2015, for a long time does not lose its relevance.An interesting fact is that in the context of important world events, such as shale revolution, the fall in oil prices and the extension of sanctions Russia, no one can give a reliable prediction.
as referred to in 2014?
end of 2014 proved to be challenging for residents of many countries of the world, and Ukraine is no exception.The instability of the situation pushed from experts predict further developments.Official statement dare to do just Andrew Novak, head of the presidency of the Committee of economists and a few other public figures.
Nowak focused on the fact that the loans in 2015 will not be affected by the change of the hryvnia.According to him, stabilization will be possible only in the case of suppressing any kind of speculation in the currency market, as well as the parallel implementation of a strict policy of the Nationa
According to Vladimir Starintsa, chief economist of the country, today Ukraine is in a state of preddefoltnom.The situation can become critical if Russia demands return of the three billionth loan.The situation can be mitigated only through austerity and in the case of the suspension of welfare payments.
more optimistic forecast managed hear from the control of the company Capital Times Eric Naiman.He said that the hryvnia exchange rate in 2015 will be modified in the range of 15 to 25 hryvnia per dollar, which, in fact, happening today.If we manage to implement all the planned reforms and to attract investors, the situation is equalized by the end of the year.
National Bank of Ukraine declined to forecast
the question as to what will happen to the hryvnia, dared not answer for a long time, even to the NBU, since it has not submitted its analytics to the Cabinet in a timely manner.Cabinet had to use the forecasts of investment bankers and economists, as officially announced, Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko.At steady state economy annually provides the country's National Bank forecast hryvnia to calculate the project budget for the next year.Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, all of a sudden has officially declared that the draft state budget for 2015 actually have the intended course which in fact far from the real picture.According to him, the hryvnia to the dollar was supposed to correspond to the ratio of 1:17.
Why do the experts say about the further reduction of the cost hryvnia?
Many economists confidently say that soon the hryvnia will continue to fall.The trend is directly linked to military operations in the east of the country.And there is not even the fact that the maintenance of compatriots left on the defense of the country, leaving funds from the budget.The reason for the phenomenon lies in the fact that the events of the past year have led to the closure of a number of enterprises in the east.According to preliminary estimates, it is in this part of the country is concentrated about 15-25% of the companies that previously formed the export power of the state.The closure resulted in a reduction of the inflow of currency into the country.
It should be said that it is located in the east of the country's largest metropolitan area, which previously acted as active consumers.Despite the stabilizing the balance of payments, the volume of imports fell along with the purchasing power of the population.The trend is that while the situation in the east will not change the course of the Ukrainian hryvnia, the dynamics of which in recent years points to a temporary correction in the near future will continue to fall.Do not forget that this is only one of the possible scenarios.
fall of the hryvnia in connection with the events in the financial market
Distributed forecast of analysts, the issue of what will happen to the hryvnia this year, which says it drops further and even devaluation due to the dramatic changes in the Ukrainianfinancial market.As prerequisites for the devaluation of considering a massive withdrawal of investment from the state, which 90% were related to people who previously held power.The outflow of funds has led to pressure on the course.
outflow of capital from banks and converted into dollars
Ukrainian hryvnia, the price of which has fallen significantly over the past six months will continue to decline because of the confidence in the financial sector.Over the past year in more than 30 domestic banks was introduced a temporary administration.According to preliminary estimates, a similar fate threatens to at least 30 financial institutions.People, get your hands on the deposit insurance fund in the range of 200 thousand hryvnia, they immediately change the currency that only creates demand, causing the dollar to rise in price.Based on the panic prevailing in the society, and building on people's attempts to save their money, analysts say that the Ukrainian hryvnia will only weaken.
bold predictions of analysts and economists
Trying to find an answer to the question of what will happen with the hryvnia in 2015, experts have strips at 40-50 hryvnia for one dollar.This scares many future stems from the inability to use the international tranches in order to raise the economy or for the replenishment of foreign reserves since the assistance of foreign partners is hardly covers the external debt of Ukraine.
consider negative scenarios and makes the fact that for the past year, the National Bank regularly makes refinancing, the amount of which has already reached 1 billion hryvnia.This is an actual increase in the money supply in the country, the increase in supply on the market and, accordingly, decline in the value of the monetary unit.You can talk about panic, about the almost complete sale of the gold reserve and the military conflict which do not allow experts optimistic forecasts.
What experts say on the news?
The media often repeats information that the worst case scenario would be one in which the hryvnia to the dollar will meet 1:25.If we consider the fact that a black currency market this course has already taken place, we can talk about working off a script.Many experts recommend not to hurry and to emphasize the high probability of recurrence tendency.The situation is seen in a negative way with the refusal of the International Monetary Fund to issue loans.At the moment, it is the external sources of funds are the only opportunity for the country to block the needs of the state for next year.According to preliminary estimates, the country needs 25 to 26 billion financial support.Total 11-12 billion is able to allocate the IMF.Based on this fact, economists do not speak with certainty about how much will cost Ukrainian hryvnia in the near future, as its fate largely depends on the decisions of the international financial institution.
What mood form the forecasts?
forecast hryvnia is directly related to the situation, which is likely to unfold in the country.Based on the negative connotations the most likely scenarios, we can talk about the future acceleration of inflation at around 5%.Rising unemployment could reach the target of 10%.The labor market will begin challenging times.There is a high probability of raising the retirement age.The minimum income will remain the same.If the IMF will loan, the government will be forced to raise tariffs for housing and communal services.In particular, payment of electricity, hot and cold water will cost four times as much.The increase in food prices would be a natural phenomenon.Although forecasts remain forecasts and the situation in the country can change dramatically after the intervention of wealthy partners at any time, people do not stop to panic and worry.
How to implement a forecast rate of 12 hryvnia for one dollar?
In one of his speeches Ustenko officially announced that the hryvnia, the schedule of which has recently been directed to the north, and even touched the mark of 25 units per 1 US dollar, has the potential to roll back to the figure of 12 hryvnia per dollar.To achieve this will have to implement a range of upgrades that will affect virtually all aspects of life.The forecast would be real if to cut state allowances to the official salary of civil servants and to cut subsidies to ease the impact on the domestic business, which will lead to the return of capital to the country.Projected situation becomes more realistic if the maximum to reduce costs and establish a regime of austerity.
Lull or a real appreciation of the hryvnia?
If at the end of 2014 and in early 2015 of the majority of forecasts, which affected the ratio of hryvnia to the other currencies of the world, had a negative connotation today, the public mood has changed substantially.It is enough to stop a large percentage of forecasters predict a rise in the dollar, expecting the narrowing of the corridor of the course to the range of 21.5 to 23.5 hryvnia per dollar.This trend, in which the Ukrainian hryvnia continue to go up, supported by the fact that by the end of the first quarter, many companies were forced to pay the tax, which led to the reduction of the money supply in the market.Moreover, the National Bank artificially reduces the amount of funds on the market, encouraging banks to sell foreign currency.Talking about the stability is still too early, but the positive assessment of the situation is very encouraging.
What could happen by the end of the year?
By the end of 2015, the situation with the hryvnia currency market may purchase three format development.With a balanced outflow of capital and on condition that the IMF does not cease to invest, by the end of year exchange rate will be at a level of 27 to 29 hryvnia per dollar.If the outflow of capital from the country to maintain the level of the end of 2014, we can safely prepare for the indicator in 32-35 hryvnia for one dollar.With an increase in the outflow of capital from the country several times the situation may emerge quite frightening, one of the toughest forecasts at 50 hryvnia for one dollar may be quite real.Reduced rate of 1-1.5 times associated with the desire of the population to convert their savings into dollars and hide them under my pillow.The ratio of "hryvnia against the ruble," today is not so important, because Russia, like Ukraine, is going through difficult times.
Summing up, or have a sense of whether the predictions for the future?
Based on the above, it can be noted that the analysis of the situation in the country has not provided analysts and economists opportunity to bow down to a single forecast.Views of both politicians and experts diverge radically.The answer to the question about how to relate the hryvnia against the ruble to the dollar, the euro, no more likely to not be.This is due to the unstable economic situation and the inability to predict the actions and decisions of the IMF, which is directly imprinted on the currency.
Quite interesting is the fact that at the time when analysts said the fall devaluation of the hryvnia, and by spring, she began to get stronger.Today, there is talk about the strengthening of the national currency, but to insist on it no one dares.Hryvnia, the schedule of which from the beginning has been sent to the north and only recently rolled and stopped, can be activated and go to one of the parties at any time.This can contribute to both external factors, important world events and economic events within the country.The complex and ambiguous situation in the world economy brings about changes in the hryvnia.