When interviewing independent experts was quite clear that the majority of people concerned about the issue as to whether the dollar will fall.The interest of Russian citizens in the first place due to the fact that it is US dollar exchange rate determines the cost of imports and, consequently, the price of the overwhelming majority of products.There is a very simple relationship.The high cost of black gold provides the inflow of dollars in the domestic market, the ruble strengthened active and residents can purchase products at a reasonable cost.If the oil price falls, the picture becomes completely the opposite, and the standard of living is dramatically reduced.
mismatch budget in 2015
In November 2014 it became quite clear that the budget for 2015 and not nearly correspond to reality.Expenditure planned in view of the fact that a barrel of black gold will cost in the world market not less than 96 dollars.Based on this index, the dollar exchange rate in the banks during 2015 should not exceed 37 rubles.Unexpected surprise has already taken place in November 2014.By the time the US dollar exchange rate corresponded to 48 rubles.By mid-December the same year, it rose to 60 rubles.The peak was reached in the figure is almost 68 rubles.During New Year's crisis, international experts, and did not dare to talk about the fall of the course.The forecasts were centered around the further growth of the currency.Some experts said about reaching the mark of 100 rubles for one dollar.Not only is the fall of oil and other basic factors have become prerequisites for the development of adverse events.
What does the situation with the budget deficit?
experts, given the budget deficit due to reduced inflow of foreign currency due to the fall in oil prices, talk of a possible, though not the full restoration of the course.There is an essential precondition to fall, and to increase the currency.Everything will depend on how the situation will continue in the global oil market.So far we can say that in the near future the dollar will fall slightly in Russia, which has a direct bearing on the cost of rehabilitation of the black gold.While the country's largest oil producer, reduced its financial reserves after an extensive drawdown, the dollar will decline.If today's exchange rate corresponds to 54.5 rubles per dollar, you can expect to drop to 46-48 rubles.Imposing the situation on the oil price, which is now trading at 66.6 dollars per barrel in the powerful uptrend, you can already say that the dollar will fall in the market.At the same time in June, held an important meeting of OPEC on which decisions will be made, which play an important role in pricing in the oil market and, consequently, affecting the dollar in Russia.
ambiguous political situation
The world media have repeatedly sounded the information that after the annexation of the Crimea and the parallel conflict in eastern Ukraine with regard to Russia were sanctioned.They dramatically hit many sectors of the economy and imposed a negative impact on the financial situation in the country.Most oil production suffered and military industry, the proceeds of which constitute the bulk of the state budget and that supported the dollar in Russia at the optimum level.The main problem is the lack of opportunity to take a loan in the western financial institutions.Cash payments on previously issued loans makes the government actively to buy dollars, which automatically leads to higher prices.
What predictions can be made by analyzing the policy of Russia?
answer questions about whether the dollar to fall, based on the political situation in the country is very problematic.Sanctions against Russia Western countries not only do not cancel, but also tightening places.Inability to take cheap foreign currency loans supplemented exodus of foreign investors from the country, accompanied by the outflow of foreign currency.Corruption and strong pressure from the authorities on business caused the transfer of domestic business in the offshore.All these facts suggest that the dollar at banks in the short term will not change dramatically.Let it roll back on the background of a slight increase in oil prices, but major changes, analysts do not recommend waiting until the exhaustion of the conflict as the Ukraine and the countries of Europe and America.
forecast on the basis of domestic public events
addition to external factors, last year's New Year was initiated by the crisis and internal problems of the state.Over the past 15 years the country has not managed to change the raw material on the modern economic model.The oil industry is practically ate all available resources and the distribution of funds between the state economic segments was uneven.Excessive development of the oil industry has led to the decline of other economic areas.As a result, we could see a very high dollar.Forecast for the further appreciation of the US dollar can be done, starting from the fact that at the moment of structural reforms is no one holds.Without a fundamental restructuring of the economy will not change, and consequently, the ruble will remain strong enough.
it difficult to predict?
Expert opinions on the question of whether the dollar is falling, almost radically diverge.Nobody gives guarantees assured prospective currency movements.If at the end of 2014, most experts confidently argued hike ruble to the level of one hundred units per 1 US dollar, the view has changed today.Analysts are inclined to believe that the dollar falls and confidently maintains its trend.The difficulty in predicting the cause numerous speculative transactions with the US currency, which in terms of its deficit in the country can become a cause sharp fluctuations.The dynamics of the dollar depends on the payment of debt by major Russian companies.For example, in December last year and January this year, was settled about 32-33 billion dollars of debt.Purchase of foreign currency on the interbank market leads to a jump in quotations and the excitement of the population in the absence of compensation by the Central Bank.
policy of the Central Bank may determine the dollar
to many affected by the decision of the Central Bank of injections into the international market.Despite the fact that the Russian government eased the national currency to float freely, it reserved the right to adjust the value of the ruble in extreme situations.Considering that it is in Russia, one of the biggest gold reserves in the world, you can talk about the country's ability to restrain the national currency as much as you need.At any time, the Central Bank may adjust the dollar.If in the framework of monetary policy will be running the printing press and will release the money unfounded, the US currency sharply fly up that threatens the devaluation of the ruble.If the flow of money unfounded still be tightly controlled by the government can be considered the prospect of strengthening the ruble and the dollar's decline.
Moderately optimistic forecasts
There are only three categories of forecasts.It is moderately optimistic, optimistic and pessimistic.Considering each of the variants of the events, we can talk about whether the dollar falls.Moderate optimists hope for a strong Russian economy and the inability of Europe to develop without domestic energy.Analysts operate that low oil prices are not profitable worldwide, and soon the situation will stabilize and the global oil market and in the economy of Russia.They scrutinize the dollar.Forecast of stops on the course in 38-42 rubles to the end of 2015.
optimistic view of the situation and the dollar
The fact that the dollar is falling, they say, and die-hard optimists.This is mainly the representatives of the government apparatus, and people close to them.They do not consider the actual situation, and politically motivated.Their opinion is stopped on the fact that the fall of the oil - is the work of the US government and their partners.The goal of the opponent - a military-political concessions from Russia.The senselessness of such developments in the future should become clearer by the end of summer 2015.According to forecasts, in 2016 the new country will meet guests at the pre-crisis state.It is not taken into consideration only the fact that due to the fall in the value of black gold on the world market suffers, and America itself, as the shale oil is not cheap to develop.
Pessimists - most analysts and experts
biggest group of experts believes that the dollar, the Central Bank offered today at the rate of 54.5, will never return to pre-crisis path.Liberal-minded analysts point to the growth of the currency to a mark of 100 rubles.The reason for this they see payments crisis, the credit crisis and the bankruptcy of a numerous number of banks and businesses.There have been talks that Russia could turn in the direction of the command economy, and even create new format of the USSR.Waiting for an incredibly deep crisis forces beware of social upheaval and the parade of sovereignties.
There should indent and attest to the fact that none of the major forecasts made in the last six months, and half did not materialize.This gives a good reason to believe that certain, or even more likely, to predict the direction of the dollar does not make sense as a direct link currencies and economic performance has long been broken.
