Under the Monte Carlo method is commonly understood as one of the ways of statistical modeling, which in turn was based on the concept of "black box".
Monte Carlo method is engaged in cases where the use of an analytical model of the phenomenon is difficult or completely impossible (for example, in solving problems of queuing theory, operations research, summarized the study of random processes, etc.).
consider in more detail the method of Monte Carlo in the economy.
Application of the method of statistical modeling can be illustrated by the example of the scope of queuing theory.So, suppose you want to find out how long and how often you need to wait for customers in a queue at a certain (initially specified) capacity of a store.These calculations, first of all, need to decide whether to expand the shop.As you know, approach buyers usually is random or uncertain, therefore, the distribution of the so-called time approach, there is a gap between each two successive parishes buyers can be independently set on the basis of available information.On the other hand, each time the service buyer also has a random character, consequently, its distribution can also be detected.So, we have two stochastic processes, and direct interaction which creates a queue.
As practice shows, in real life using the Monte Carlo method can be randomly many times through all the possibilities, while maintaining the same characteristics of the distribution.The result will be artificially re-create the whole picture of this process.Then, repeating the pattern again, each time changing the conditions, it is possible to obtain statistics as if they were collected in real time.
Likewise, you can again several times to recreate an artificial picture of almost any store, putting into practice the method of Monte Carlo.Simulation in this case would be to repeat the real data.We get back above two stochastic process.Their alternate interaction in the final result, again, will give "all" virtually the same performance as in real life.
Therefore, the Monte Carlo method in science is artificial simulation through multiple repetitions of random realizations.It is important to note that the implementation of the so-called individual otherwise referred to as statistical tests.
To understand what is meant by a random selection mechanism should simply use the most common dice.In practice, however, generally apply a table of random numbers.In addition, at the moment it is very popular, and special programs for computers, which are among the specialists called random number generators.In fact, the Monte Carlo method is quite simple, effective and easy to use, which causes its widespread use, both in the economy and in other sciences.
