Financial forecasting - a mechanism for the use of specific methods for calculating key financial indicators.The main methods include econometric forecasting, mathematical modeling, trending and expertise.
By using mathematical modeling as the basis for the calculation of the optimum solution lies linear programming model.Also used transport and network models.
Financial Forecasting involves the use of economic forecasting, based on the basic principles of statistics and economics.In other words, the calculation of the targets is carried out on the basis of statistical coefficients using one or more of the economic variables that are taken into account as factors influencing the results of prediction.The dynamics of the analyzed indicators, taking into account factors that have a significant impact on the financial processes.
to build econometric models used regression analysis, which allows to quantify the averages, which have emerged in the economy in the base period.To improve the accuracy of the results obtained in the methods of forecasting the key financial indicators should be supplemented by expert estimates.
method expert estimates used to summarize and mathematical processing of expert opinions - experts on a particular issue.The effectiveness of this method depends on the competence and professionalism.The forecast may be sufficiently high accuracy.Only one drawback to this method - subjective, iereliance on "feelings and intuition," the expert, which sometimes can not be subject to rational explanation.In practice, the known methods of collective and individual expert assessments.
Financial forecasting would be considered not in full, if the trend does not characterize a method that involves dependence and income and expenses from such factors as the time.There are two kinds of trends - a trend of constant growth, which should be a permanent change or a temporary linear trend, providing analysis of the constant changes in absolute terms.The main drawback of this method - a complete disregard for the demographic, economic and other factors.
Financial forecasting can be carried out with the help of statistical surveys, which are conducted with a certain regularity.The tool of statistical forecasting is trend regression model.At the beginning of such parameters are assessed on the basis of available statistical base, and then trends are extrapolated for a specific period of time.
forecasts allow us to consider all possible options to improve the financial system under different scenarios of economic development, economic entity, and market conditions.Financial forecasting can be short-term, ie,All mathematical calculations consider the period up to one year, medium-term (3-5 years) and long term (over 5 years).This type of forecasting is carried out on three economic levels (national, territorial and simple economic entity).
A national level involves calculations that form the financial resources of the state, sets the direction for their development.The result of this prediction is the compilation of the state budget.
Financial forecasting territorial level is similar to the forecast national level.At the level of economic entities forecasting is a financial management, which consists in the development of areas of enterprise development and formation of financial resources for the future.Also at this stage, the definition of a strategy that would ensure financial sustainability situation of the company, as well as the creditworthiness and solvency.
