Sensitivity analysis - is risk assessment method, belonging to the group of quantitative methods.Its essence is as follows.Determined value change which can be tracked and measured.This value has great importance for the feasibility of the project.Then one input parameters are changed, thus changing the control value is fixed.If the value has changed by more than 5% (in some cases allowed deviation limit to 10%), sensitivity analysis indicates that the project has a high degree of risk.After all, such a power response indicates a high degree of dependence on the fluctuations of the input parameters.
We do not give a detailed formula calculations, and explain the example that can be measured by the size of the control, and that - to change the parameters on which it depends.
The most common practice is performed sensitivity analysis of profit enterprise.It is necessary to measure the dependence of the profits that the company will receive from the other values, and therefore, to assess the degree of risk.So, what may depend on income?From the sales volume from the unit variable costs and other factors.The strength of the effect of each of these factors will depend on the nature of the company, the type of production.For example, some companies will be more responsive to changes in purchase prices for raw materials, the other - the change in output.
The factors to which resistance is included in the analysis, and performance may make the general economic situation in the market / country, for example, inflation.And in each case, by performing a sensitivity analysis, it is desirable to simulate three scenarios.This is the best version of the situation, pessimistic and finally realistic.
important condition: when you change the source data and the measurement reference value, it is important to change only one parameter.Otherwise, the results are difficult to be trusted.But, because in reality we are dealing with a set of variable factors, such calculations that take into account multiple variables are performed using a computer.Sensitivity analysis is carried out in 6 stages:
- establishment of input parameters affecting the measured value (for example, income).
- Define Formula showing the dependence of profit on the input parameters.
- index is calculated with the projected factors affecting it.
- index is calculated when changing influencing factors (changes in the factors and, accordingly, the desired figure expressed as a percentage).This procedure is carried out for all factors studied, the data are recorded in tables and graphically displayed in graph form.Furthermore, there is a case of analysis in which a calculation formula is substituted not change factors percentage and specific values.It reveals what happens to the indicator (profit) for the specific input values.
- Identify the most significant factors which in the case of a particular company depends on income and the calculation of their critical values.
- Final analysis of the results.
part of the analysis of sensitivity of profit is performed simultaneously with the analysis of break-even.Together, these calculations provide the most complete picture of what will happen now with the changing conditions, and how to maintain the profitability of production.They also identify the maximum allowable for the enterprise values of the input parameters.
Thus, the sensitivity analysis of the investment project or existing enterprise allows you to set the degree of financial risk, the advisability of investing, as well as to identify areas that require the most attention, and develop measures to protect the stability of the company.All of this helps to allocate human and financial resources, contributes to the effective management of the enterprise and provides it with a stable income.
