technique called advanced techniques, which is an ordered set of simple ways that aim to develop a common outlook.It is also a way of coming out of the knowledge of the most common patterns and used to achieve the objective.
prediction methods are a specific set of techniques that allows you to perform predictive operation is received and the processing of data about the future.
study of these techniques and their complexes involved in relevant disciplines.Forecasting methodology is classified according to certain categories.So, allocate goal setting, foresight, planning, scheduling and more.
Methodology development forecast is considered to select a specific set of methods and techniques of forecasting.
system is called an ordered set of technical tools, techniques.It is applicable to complex processes and phenomena.Through the incorporation
prediction called concrete form the practical or theoretical approach to the formation of the forecast.This is one (or more) a mathematical or logical operation, which aims to obtain a certain result.
Philosopher Bazarov (University) in 1927 proposed three methods: extrapolation, analytical model and expertise.Today, there are about two hundred and twenty steps.When this is used in practice no more than ten of them.Among them, in particular, it should be noted factual (interpolation, extrapolation, trend analysis), publication, scenic, citation-index, matrix methods of forecasting.Applied also modeling, the construction of analogies, charts and more.A special place is occupied by expert methods of forecasting.
There are also new techniques.For example, the release:
1. Adaptive forecasting methods.They include the construction of recurrence (returning) self-adjusting models, which are able to reflect the dynamic and time-varying characteristics, which is endowed with a time series, taking into account the information value of the members thereof.
2. Morphological examination.It is used for open-minded and systematic screening of opportunities associated with the survey forecasting.
3. Retroalternativistiku.
4. A method, comprising construction of a "tree of objectives".This technique is used in the regulatory assessment of common components.
5. Contextual mapping.
6. The method of cause and effect.This method is close to the problem-target method.
7. Combined Forecast.This technique involves the use of a summative evaluation, which is prepared on the basis of an informal or formal association of individual private forecasts, by adding them as a rule, with specific weights.
This classification is considered to be highly conditional.This is due mainly to the fact that almost all the prediction methods are complementary, mutually crossing over.For example, a score is always contains elements modeling and extrapolation.This latter is inconceivable without the modeling and evaluation.At the same time it provides for modeling elements which include other prediction methods.
In the analysis of the object is often necessary to carry out a study of not one but several of his performance.This indicator can predict one by one method and the other - using completely different.Thus, one object can be applied several times.
There are also methods of financial forecasting.They include direct and indirect methods.In practice, the planning, usually both methods are used.
