modern concept of demographic transition explains the process of changing the type of reproduction.In addition, it allows you to identify patterns of this process.The greatest, according to the researchers, interest is the theory of demographic transition from traditional type to modern type.
Throughout the process, which results in the stabilization of the population, define four phases.
first phase in the middle of the 20th century have been the state with a developed industry.This period is characterized by the fact that the increase in the crude death rate (ACS) was higher than decrease the total fertility rate (TFR).In some countries, fertility retains its previous level, and in some cases even increased.
second phase is characterized by the continuation of the reduction of mortality rate.At the end of ACS reaches a minimum.At the same time, and reduced fertility rates, and more rapidly.As a result, there is a slowdown in the natural increase.
In the third phase, marked increase in the death rate.It is associated with active aging.At the same time, and reduced fertility.Thus, by the end of phase OCD reaches normal reproduction.
In the fourth stage there is an increase of ACS, approaching the ROC or exceeding it in some cases.This phase ends demographic stabilization.
sharp acceleration in the growth of the numbers began in the 1950s.Start acceleration due mainly establishment of intermediate species reproduction.Usually this period is characterized by the fact that the reduction in mortality ahead of the lowering of the birth rate.As a result of accelerated increase in the number.This process can not meet the objective requirements of social and economic development.
At the end of the 18th century in some Western European capitalist countries began the demographic transition.He subsequently spread to other states, and by the mid-20th century, embraced the whole planet.
demographic transition has its own characteristics, which are determined in accordance with the course of history.Equally important in the process of changing types of reproduction is the cultural, social, political, economic restructuring of society in the process of industrial development.On the demographic transition has an impact and shape the socio-economic system in which it occurs in one or another country.According to the researchers, due to these factors is set as the power and duration of population growth.
demographic transition can be performed by one of three typical schemes.
first was typical of the French state.In France, the process of changing the types (and modes, respectively) mortality and fertility paralleled.In connection with this, the state has experienced virtually no population explosion.However, this scheme is an exception to the rule.
In most European countries started in the 19th century, the transition proceeded according to another scheme.According to the scheme, starting from the beginning of the birth rate lagged mortality by fifty to one hundred years.As a result, in the late 19th and early 20th century in this region there was a population explosion.
third scheme is typical for Latin America as well as Asia and Africa.In these states, it marked a sufficiently rapid reduction in mortality, and in some of these figures are much lower than in developed countries, rather.In these regions, the population explosion was powerful enough.In these areas, the natural increase of the order of 20-35%.This massive drop in the birth rate comes with a significant delay.
