Ukraine: external debt - financial noose or mode of existence?

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Ukraine - resource-rich country with a warm mild climate, industry and hard-working people.His way she started, not having behind the national debt.We can only sympathize with the fact, which has accumulated external debt of Ukraine in 2015.Home

way

Ukraine began its history as an independent state in 1991.Russia became the legal successor of the USSR, including the commitment she took on the debts of the former Soviet republics.

starting point "credit history" Ukraine can be considered as 15 July 1992.This day the Verkhovna Rada of legalized state guarantees on loans to Ukrainian companies than many of them took advantage.Total thus attracted $ 2 billion. Most of the funds paid to Ukraine.External debt of the company, now the state is not extinguished until now.

In 1993, the continued build-up of public debt, and has reached the level of $ 3.6 billion. Its first loans Ukraine has received in Russia.The new state has not been its own currency in the move was the Russian ruble.Taking advantage of loopholes in the law, Ukraine is actively "printed" electronic rubles, paying them for the Russian goods.Eastern neighbors such behavior was regarded as a fraud, and these amounts were later registered as trade credit.

Ukraine and international financial institutions

Since 1994, Ukraine has become to look closely to international lending institutions.To take there money was required to comply with tough financial discipline.The uncontrolled emission of money since late 1994 is terminated.To replenish the National Bank is developing a program budget issuance of government bonds in Ukraine.They feature had short maturities and high interest rates.

Bonds in 1995 managed to sell $ 300 million hryvnia in the next year is 1.5 billion. Of course, this policy has led to difficulties in servicing the national debt.In 1995, Russia writes off part of the debt of $ 1.1 billion and rescheduling the remaining part of 1997, there is a number of other concessions - in particular, accepts payment for gas government bonds.

budget deficit was in 1997.But to attract overseas entire $ 1.145 billion was not possible - the international financial institutions did not suit the pace of reforms in the country.Shortage covered familiar way - the release of high-yield bonds.Paycheck came in 1999.The government was unable to pay the interest on the bonds, and went to the renegotiation of payments.They were relegated terms of payments and reducing interest on debt.

for Ukraine's economy in 1999 was the most difficult year in its history.The devaluation of the hryvnia, a record low GDP and defaults have fallen this year.By 1 January 2000 the national debt totaled $ 12.5 billion, or 60% of GDP.Increase of payments and the positive dynamics of prices in metallurgy, and chemical ensure Ukraine's economic growth up to 2008.During this period, the borrowed funds virtually not involved, and the total debt decreased gradually.

Ukraine: external debt during the 2008 crisis

World crisis has caught the Ukrainian economy.To overcome the negative trends has been agreed with the IMF loan size of $ 16.5 billion with a maturity of 15 years.By this time, and the gas conflict with Russia, where failure to pay for gas, Gazprom forced to block the supply of fuel.The crisis continued in 2009.

The diagram shows the external debt of Ukraine for years, it is easy to notice the rise attributable to these 2 years.In 2007, it was $ 54 billion, by the beginning of 2010 has grown to $ 103 billion. The crisis has sharply jumped ratio of external debt to GDP in Ukraine - from 55 to 85%.

From the fall to fall

economic decline stopped in 2012, in the 2nd quarter was even some growth.In the next 2 years there was a decrease of GDP by 1-2%.The economy is in a precarious equilibrium, but political turmoil end of 2013 - beginning of 2014 caused its rapid decline.

violent change of power in February 2014 has led to unrest in the east of Ukraine.Russia suspended the release of the 2nd tranche of the total amount of $ 15 billion agreed with the previous government.Ukraine's external debt to Gazprom which has reached obscene proportions, became forced to purchase gas prepayment.Since then, the ability to attract money from Russia to Ukraine was lost.

new regime badly needed in external support in connection with the separation of the Crimean War, and in the Donets Basin - a region whose contribution to GDP reached 20%.Ukraine's external debt which has reached alarming proportions, could count on the help of the IMF.Assistance was provided, but with some conditions.

standard requirements of the IMF to countries caught in financial hole - reducing budget expenditures, the increase in tariffs for the population, strict financial discipline.

forecasts and prospects

Economic problems and the reduction of foreign exchange reserves caused the devaluation of the hryvnia 3 times.Service of external debt denominated in US dollars, has become daunting task.The external debt of Ukraine, the payment schedule of which resembles a minefield, threatens at any moment to bring the country to default.While it kept afloat only more and more new loans.