The methods of risk assessment

Economy is always characterized by uncertainty, which manifests itself in varying degrees.This is due to the factors of the entire economic system, which business entities may not provide a sufficient chance to adapt to them.

property man to adapt to the uncertainty is called risk appetite.And the risk - is the market situation, provoked by uncertainty because of which can not be anything (events, modes of behavior of economic entities) anticipate and predict accurately, with high probability.

economic life has a very wide range of risks.For simplicity they are combined into groups depending on conditions of occurrence.

1. Production risks depend on the technological features and the natural environment.Also, they determine the factors that influence the level of costs of the company.

2. Commercial risks arise in the implementation of services and goods.They are associated with the volume of purchases, with the change in prices with the costs after the robbery, or damage to the goods, and so on. N.

3. Financial risks arise in the relationship of firms with financial institutions (such as banks).

4. Interest rate risk arises from the possible cost of the change rate of assets.

5. Credit risks associated with the return of credit to delay or even to his return.

main methods of risk assessment have significant differences.This is due to the purpose for which they are used.Thus, the statistical methods of risk assessment is most often used for mass phenomena.They are based on the theory of large numbers.These methods of risk assessment based on the information taken over a long time about the events that may affect the fate of facilities management.If these events took place before, then calculated how often they occurred.Also statistical methods of risk assessment based on the calculations of the likelihood that there will come or that events that could have a negative impact.

Qualitative risk assessment techniques are used in cases that are much less common, and can not be determined statistically.They are carried out on the basis of knowledge and experience of experts.Therefore, these methods of risk assessment is called by expert estimates.

level of risk depends on the value (the probability of occurrence of undesirable events) that is expected of him, and from the options for a possible outcome.For example, to calculate the probability that a loan will not return 2% of debtors, use the information in twenty years.But on a small time interval the number of those who did not return, ranging from 0% to 20%.The higher the variability of such fluctuations possible result, the higher the risk and vice versa.

Differences in the way of people's behavior in the market situation depends on their inherent propensity to various risks.Experience shows that the majority of people are not prone to risk.Typically, entrepreneurs make up 5-7 percent of the total population.And this amount is sufficient to provide the necessary public goods and services.This suggests that the capacity for entrepreneurship - a limited resource of the economy, as the rest.Among the entrepreneurs themselves can also be found prone and risk averse.The reason is not only the mental state, and economic law and the downward Border utility.

The same people that risk is not inclined to be looking for ways to avoid it, or at least limited.Risking they agree only when the average level of profit will be attractive to such an extent that it can cover the cost of risk.