Fall of hryvnia began in 2014 - the active phase of Maidan.However, experts are of the opinion that all the prerequisites for the fall of the currency had been since the beginning of 2013 due to the extremely weak state of the economy, still reeling from the crisis of 2008-2009.Therefore, the course is maintained artificially by sales of foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of Ukraine.
devaluation of the hryvnia.What it is?
devaluation is the process in which the price of the national currency falls in relation to foreign currencies, ie a depreciation of the currency.
In other words, the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia - a decline in its exchange rate against foreign currencies.
devaluation can be open and hidden.When you open the devaluation of the Central Bank announces this, and impairment of the cash to be exchanged or withdrawal.When the latent state reduces the cost of the national currency.Money is not exchanged, and not withdrawn.
consequences of the devaluation can be positive or negative.
Among the positive stand:
- increase in domestic demand;
- cost reduction of foreign exchange reserves;
- incentive to export.
However, the negative effects are very significant.In the case of the devaluation of the following occurs:
- provoked by inflation;
- eroding public confidence in the national currency;
- due to higher import prices reduced output;
- people tend to withdraw all their money from the accounts of banks;
- buying activity is reduced due to the reduction of salaries and pensions.
Ukraine.The devaluation of the hryvnia
In February 2014 devaluation of twenty-five percent.Instead of eight hryvnia for one dollar is now had to give ten.And in May, despite the fact that the Central Bank's reserves decreased by six billion, devaluation of the hryvnia was fifty percent.
At the same time, Ukraine received the first tranche of seventeen billion dollars.The devaluation of the hryvnia to a halt because of this.Nevertheless, the situation continued to deteriorate.Crimea was annexed to Russia in Donbass ongoing civil war, and the company is in the territory, proclaimed themselves the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, stopped paying taxes to Kiev.
So, in August, there was another devaluation of the hryvnia in 2014.The course fell from twelve hryvnia for one dollar and fourteen and a half.Through the actions of the Central Bank of the ratio somewhat softened, but before the elections due to the course of the gold fund of Ukraine recorded in the amount of twelve hryvnia and ninety-five cents per dollar.However, after the elections, support for the Ukrainian hryvnia is over, course again hesitated.
For the week the dollar rose to sixteen with a little hryvnia, and the devaluation of the hryvnia in Ukraine (2014 year-end) amounted to one hundred percent.
International Monetary Fund
main cause of economic deterioration is taking all the requirements of the International Monetary Ford.Achieving receiving IMF loans, Kiev went to the free rate fixing, increasing the population of tariffs for gas and other utility bills, which caused panic the population.People no longer trust their government, withdraw money from deposit accounts and massively bought the currency.
economic crisis on Ukraine happened before.In the late nineties in the country affected by the Russian crisis, and in 2008 - the world.In those years, the devaluation of the hryvnia also took place.However, the State did not give up the currency corridor, as was done in 2014.
Such a measure could be successful only in a state with a strong economy and the national currency, backed by gold or commodities.In the case of Ukraine's economy is characterized by reliability and stability.Experts have repeatedly expressed the opinion that the issue hryvnia without supervision by the National Bank will cause a flow of capital - for the hryvnia will try to acquire foreign currency.
Releasing the hryvnia.Consequences
And so it happened.Money were taken from the deposits, and the Central Bank at the time gave money to other banks to maintain liquidity.The exchange rate began to conduct speculators.
In August, the National Bank bought government bonds, "Naftogaz Ukraine" one hundred billion hryvnia.The money had been transferred into foreign currency, which also contributed to a new jump in prices.Thus, the Central Bank without the mechanisms of confrontation, he helped grow rate.
In addition, businesses that export products, have tried to keep the resulting foreign currency as long as possible, speculating on the course.Foreign exchange earnings as a result of declining.
businessman try to carry out operations on settlements outside Ukraine, using a variety of schemes to local banks could not affect the capital.And they did not seek to bring the money received from the settlement.
At the same time, investment declined dramatically.Investors tried to hook or by crook to take out their money from the unpredictable and the alarm zone, where the risks of investing money are huge.According to government statistics, since the beginning of the year Ukraine has lost eleven fourteen hundredths of a billion dollars of direct investment, which amounted to about twenty percent of the total size of the investment inflows.
anti-crisis measures
All experts unanimously say that the devaluation of the hryvnia for the most part occurred because of the hryvnia release and non-fixed rate.And what is the first step towards the stabilization of the currency will be the rejection of a floating exchange rate, and a return to fixed.
as general anti-crisis measures proposed to conduct a more rigorous policy aimed at minimizing speculative operations, increase exports, especially the agricultural sector.There have also been proposals to abolish the foreign exchange auctions and raising the discount rate to the inflation forecast.
Some Ukrainian experts believe that the National Bank has all the necessary tools to overcome the currency crisis, but for some reason, do not use them.But whatever was undertaken by the National Bank in early 2015 he exacerbated the collapse of hryvnia exchange rate reached a thirty hryvnia for one dollar.
consequences of the devaluation of the hryvnia in 2014
economic analyst Alexander Okhrimenko notes that during the crisis the average salary is about one hundred dollars, and can be reduced up to fifty.Only the most active survive in the current environment.The rest will become beggars.
increase the cost of loans in foreign currency, they pay little or no pay.This is a result of the bad economy phenomenon of devaluation of the hryvnia.In 2014, banks took a fresh solution - they began to form the so-called short positions when the currency sold more than bought.By the end of 2014, short positions amounted to six billion dollars.But as a result, banks are now unable to buy dollars at the thirty-hryvnia and bear huge losses.
To stabilize the situation, Ohrimenko proposes to transparent policy bank refinancing;to release all foreign currency treasury bills, and the money to increase gold reserves;free deposits and increase tax rates on them, and to lift restrictions of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market.
is expected that Ukraine will be able to return to the 2013 level of about 5-7 years.And modifications will become possible only after the problems in the east of the country.
investors in Ukraine are mainly its oligarchs.They fight among themselves for power and property.Therefore, investment from outside can come only after that will end the war between them.
essence of Ukrainian problems
All problems, including falling hryvnia, it was decided to write off the war in the Donbas.However, for several months, at least nominally operates an armistice, and the hryvnia reached its peak next fall.And the improvement is not expected.
Obviously, the inability to solve the economic problems of trying to write off the war.A reluctance to compromise with the Donbas generates new and old compounding (including economic) problems of Ukraine.
Conclusions
oligarchs war destroys a country.But the worst thing - is that the war in the south-eastern Ukraine, have resulted in massive losses.You can not solve the economic issues in a purely economic nature and do not touch with the political component.It was she who today in Ukraine is critical.From the settlement of the situation in the southeast of the fate of the future of the country.
