Recent events in our country have led many people to think about what to do with their savings and how to avoid being in the red with the possible devaluation of the national currency.The ruble weakened.To deny this is completely useless.But what determines the exchange rate?After so many crucial factors.And what determines the rate of the dollar to the ruble?What is the relationship between these currencies?
ruble as the national currency of Russia
difficult to understand what determines the rate, not knowing that it affects the rate of its national currency.The ruble has come to us from ancient times.But over time the reasons for its strengthening and weakening have not changed.First of all, the exchange rate affects the trade balance.That is, the ratio of manufactured imports relative to exports.This means that the more this ratio will tend to zero, the less will be the prerequisites for concern.Indeed, if, for example, export import substantially exceeds, then this can lead to a lack of competition and to reduce the level of export.If the import takes a leading position, it can lead to a dramatic reduction in the amount of foreign currency in the country, which will reduce the cost of an internal currency.That, in principle, can be seen today in Russia.In general, not only this leads to an imbalance of the ruble.There are lots of factors that can affect its growth or decline: geopolitics, inflation, GDP, unemployment, macroeconomic indicators of the country and other causes.
dollar as the world currency
After the Second World War was over, the United States secured the title of superpower.In Europe, the US dollar surged, this was the cause of its formation of reserve currency status.Today, the dollar has grown considerably.But it also has weaknesses: there are some factors that can affect its value.First of all, of course, demand for the dollar in other countries.But it is important and how to develop this currency in their country.After all, there are some factors that the United States specifically for increasing the use of the national currency.Primarily they include GDP growth, economic development, balance of payments and the number of unemployed.Often the growth of the dollar can affect the banking system in the country.Interest rates and dividends can be controlled with the use of special programs and events.It is difficult to say what determines the exchange rate to a greater extent.Each factor plays a separate role.
Why the dollar above the ruble?
Russia - a very powerful state, but why the dollar more expensive?And what determines the rate of the dollar to the ruble?The ruble is not always a cheaper dollar.But in recent years this trend simply rooted in Russia.For decades, the dollar is worth much more than the ruble.To explain this pattern is simple enough.Prior to the abolition of the gold standard, the value of each currency was confirmed gold reserves of its state.Money is very different in weight, shape, design and quality of the metal.But after the abolition of the standard for each currency began to exert pressure by various factors.They later began to determine its value relative to other currencies.Gold is not enough at all, and that's a fact.Therefore, most countries are trying not to let more money than goods produced in the country.This is done in order to avoid the economic crisis.The conclusion: the currency of the country that produces most of the goods, and will occupy a leading position worldwide.Today that country is America.
Exchange Rates.Interest rates
What determines the exchange rate?In order to answer this question more fully, it is necessary to have knowledge in the field of finance.But if to speak more simply, it turns out that's such a scheme.All states use interest rates to conduct its own monetary policy and controlling the exchange rate.As is known, the size of the interest rate is always influenced by several factors: inflation, government policies, the demand for a certain currency.Among the most influential factors are the following: the relative interest rates, purchasing power parity, economic conditions, the demand for capital and its supply.Taken together, all these factors will form or that the purchase price and the sale of each currency.From what determines the level of the exchange rate?Perhaps it is how all these factors will develop.
For what reasons rate moves?
why exchange rates move?As mentioned earlier, each of them has a certain influence trade relations.Also, the exchange rate on exports and imports.With the growth of national income and increased demand for imported goods.This naturally results in the national currency to the lowest position.This factor is called "purchasing power parity".Another important factor that influences the direction of movement of capital - is currency speculation.In most cases, this is due to the desire of investors to have more lucrative deals, bidding up the price of foreign currency.Therefore, such actions lead to the movement of capital from one country to another, which has a negative impact on the financial market.This phenomenon is called "capital flight."The impact of this factor can be quite negative, for example, lead to a spike in rates, and possibly to the present crisis.Why the exchange rate moves?In the long-term trend rate movements significantly affect sorts of funds.After all, the main focus of this organization is to invest.Considering the amount of possessed funds, and it becomes clear how these investments may affect the exchange rate.For example, to make it move in the same direction for a long time.And of course, it should be noted the state's influence on the exchange rate with the help of banks.As well as the activities of importers and exporters.
market "Forex"
In recent years, many have resorted to earnings using the market "Forex".And while more and more questions have been raised about what determines the rate of exchange on the "Forex".The most important engines of currencies in this market are two factors: the export and import, as well as the activity of the capital.Whatever you say, and all that relates to currency and its value depends entirely on the trade relations between the two countries.After all, the higher the value of the goods produced in their own country, the currency will be more expensive.Well, about the activity of the capital already mentioned above.It is important to note that the market "Forex" is designed for people who just want to exchange one currency for another for use.But to date, most of the participants in this market - speculators who profit from the movement of the stock price.At the same time they can use for their own speculation, even small fluctuations in exchange rates.
«Black Gold" and currency fluctuations
What determines the exchange rate?As previously discussed, many factors play a role in the formation of the value of each monetary unit.But the most noticeable impact on the exchange rate fluctuations has the price of oil.This is especially reflected in dollar terms.Recently, the United States significantly increased the amount of energy produced.In this regard, OPEC oil price dropped to 100-120 dollars (up to $ 50-60 per barrel).And it is primarily a negative impact on the economy of many countries.Including Russia, which is now struggling with the problem of the fall of the national currency.Earlier, when US oil consumption is high, and the "shale revolution" has not swept the world, the dollar reacted negatively to the increase in oil prices.Today the situation has changed dramatically.
world currency and the dollar
2014 was a difficult year for the financial market.It affected not only Russia but also other countries.For example, the end of the dollar against the euro has appreciated by 11%.Jena is in an even more difficult situation, the level of strengthening of the dollar by 12%.Of course, the outcome is difficult to equate Russia to losses in these countries, because the ruble has fallen almost 45% per year!And the results of the virtual currency (Bitcoin) and all fell to the bottom.Compared with November 2013, Bitcoin fell against the dollar by as much as 72%.Minimal losses for this year suffered such currencies as the British pound, the Indian rupee, Chinese yuan.This behavior of currencies, first of all, is connected with the fall in prices for "black gold".
These unpredictable exchange rates!
market "Forex" can often provide customers with useful information for beginners on how to predict exchange rates.First of all, according to experts, it is necessary to follow all the developments in the world of politics and economics.And also to carefully refer to the forecasts of leading analysts for the near future.Of course, we can not in any case rely on someone else's opinion, but it is still necessary to listen.In order to try to predict the exchange rate in the near future, consider the interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and other details that are associated with the movement of exchange rates.Of course, not everyone is able to quickly learn all the details of the financial market, but with a strong desire is still possible!
