Social forecasting - is one of the methodologically complex shapes outlook studies processes and phenomena.In the natural sciences forecasting is used to prepare for the consequences of a phenomenon.For example, for the detection of a high probability of an earthquake or volcanic eruption should be informed and evacuated outside the respective territory.Specialities social forecasting are social processes, the outcome of which can be affected, so the value of this type of research perspectives - not only in preparation for the future circumstances, but also the ability to simulate them.
In practice, use the following methods of social forecasting:
method of expert evaluations
This method consists in the collection and study of expert opinions on the prospects of the studied social phenomenon.The effectiveness of this way is determined by competent experts, well-posed questions to them and the quality of processing of the responses received.
method Delphic oracle - a version of the method of expert evaluations - has a complex scheme of questioning experts: to eliminate the influence of each group on the opinion of specialists, experts were not disclosed the names of other qualified respondents, each independently answering questions.Next is the analysis of the responses and determining the dominant position.After that the respondents receive the same survey, the arguments of experts whose opinions differ from the majority, and the ability to change its position.The procedure is repeated until consensus is reached.
The main advantage of the method - the exclusion of group influence on individual opinion, because it can not be realized as long as there was no consensus building.
This method can be compared to the last election of the Pope.The decision was made anonymous vote for the third time.It is obvious that during the elections, none of the candidates managed to make a "good deed" that could change the opinion of the voters.According to custom, the procedure can not be completed until one of the candidates attains 77 votes.It is logical to assume that long-term social forecasting Delphi method is similar to the definition of "average temperature in the hospital."
Social simulation.Highlights
Social forecasting can be done by means of mathematical modeling.This method allows us to consider a lot of scenarios in their correlation with different factors.As in the case of the Delphi method, there are some difficulties with the long-term forecasting.But the advantage of this method is that the expert concludes, guided by not only their judgments, but also the results of the "machine" data - the variety of options for the future of the object.
extrapolation method
advantage of - identification of patterns of the phenomenon investigated by analyzing its history and regard for these data in the forecasting process.Social forecasting by extrapolation - is to use a complicated formula that will ensure valuable results do not guarantee, however, absolute certainty.
Social forecasting - an effective tool for the management of public processes in the hands of those who have the ability to influence them.
