political analysis and forecasting (foresight) is a study of a scientific nature, applied to the processes and phenomena in politics.Through the study identifies specific prospects in developments in this area.For the most accurate assessment of the chances of success and the likely behavioral strategies applied political forecasting should be based on the analytical aspects of the methodology.
main objective of foresight is considered to be the ability to assume the course of events with a high level of probability.It should be noted that in all the activities you can watch the results of the original intentions of the discrepancy.However, according to experts, it is in the policy of this phenomenon (non-compliance) is equated to a natural.It is in this area, frequent and very distant discrepancy between the planned objectives and results of their implementation.
for policy characterized by the occurrence of a number of processes of unstable instability.Even minor or random events (the death of a political figure, information leaks, etc.) can provoke profound political upheavals.This is one of the reasons that often expected and planned does not become the basis for confident predictions, but on the contrary, often results in unexpected processes.At the same time, scientific prediction includes determinism (restriction) as the inevitable result of rational development models.Political forecasting, in turn, reduces it (determinism) to the property only occasionally manifested.
Features foresight (in politics) contribute to the continued expansion of the methodological base of research.At the same time, analysts are beginning to take into account a variety of innovative approaches, the collective and individual experience of behavior, intuition.Have a seat and historical analogies, and short-term expectations.Thus, political forecasting methodology becomes much impact on reality.The impact on the political reality is performed to form the desired changes in it.There are several options foresight.
Basic methods of political forecasting
most common form of foresight is considered extrapolation.Political forecasting in this case is a continuation in the future or that the level of the thinking process.Using this option, foresight based on the presence of the majority of the phenomena of motion and path length of time.Thus, it built a chain of events present and past.This method allows us to study not only the events themselves as a potential path of development.
often at political forecasting using the method of analogy.In this case, the analysts are based on the similarity of the conditions that trigger the development of specific events in the past.Thus, the output probability is a recurrence of the same process under similar conditions.However, the use of this method is complicated insufficient considering the subjective factor - the change of political subjects in qualitative terms.In this regard, the situation may arise when similar conditions have found themselves, and the alleged events did not come.
as used in the political anticipation scenario method is a description of future events in the world as a whole or in a particular region.The analysts consider various factors, including their own attitude to the researchers studied events.
There is also a political prediction method of peer review.In this case, the basis for hypotheses to accept the results of the group of experts, whose experience and knowledge in the field of foresight recognized.
very useful in predicting the simulation method in politics.In this case, knowledge of the future created by the process of forming conventional way intended object.His (the image of the object) can be translated into maps, charts, chart, formula, and so on.Thus it carried simulate the predicted effects.
