outstanding scholar-economist of the 20th century Nikolai Kondratiev famous because he developed a theory of large cycles, also known as long waves.The basis of this theory, the scientists put the results of a statistical study of cycles, lasting from 48 to 55 years.Also, it was shown the relationship of oscillations of different duration and the factors influencing these processes.
Big Kondratieff cycles allow you to see the general laws of economic development of individual countries and the global process in general.The transitions between the phases of the great cycle is mainly linked to structural economic changes and scientific and technical revolution.
Economic Kondratieff cycles have been established empirically.Scientists have analyzed the dynamics of changes in some macroeconomic indicators in the following countries: England, Germany, France and the United States.When considering undertook period - the end of the 18th century to the early 20th century.The basis of the review was based on parameters such as the price of an index of commodity prices, interest on capital, wages to workers in industry and agriculture, foreign trade, the results of the production of certain types of products (iron, lead, coal and steel) and some others.After receiving the results of the study it was revealed Kondratyev cyclical fluctuations of these parameters for 48-55 years.Kondratieff cycles are practically the same over time, but for some there are still differences of up to five years.When carrying out a similar analysis in the field of consumer scientist such cycles could not be found.
Despite the relatively long period of time analyzed indicators (about 140 years), it was only two and a half wave of the big cycle.But this time was enough Kondratyev, to formulate his theory.
Big Kondratieff cycles have a universal character and can be used not only in developed countries.They can be used to analyze both production and other spheres of human civilization (eg, education and culture).Also, they can be used to understand that "repetition" of certain stages is no longer possible for several decades.
Kondratieff cycles have a number of unique features:
- before the start of each new cycle, there are certain changes in the economic life of any society (advances in technology, changes in the structure of foreign trade and circulation of money);
- over a long cycle, one can observe several shorter, by which point at the ascending economic downturns are short term in nature and climbs quite intense.In the descending stage - everything is exactly the opposite;
- during the ascending waves Kondratiev observed major military events.
- at a downward wave - severe depression in such industries as agriculture.
Kondratieff cycles have the correct time intervals chance.For example, the emergence of new technologies does not occur randomly, but according to the increasing needs of the current conjuncture.That is why the great cycles, timing their beginning and end are not random, but have certain patterns that are characteristic of an efficient global economy.
also in the theory of the scientist was able to show the connection between the processes of capital resources (compensation and depreciation), the cyclical nature of investment to price changes.Changes in the pricing mechanisms can actively influence the appropriate changes to the main parameters of the national economy.
