Currently, the US dollar on the Ukrainian Interbank Currency Exchange came to a fragile equilibrium and stabilized in the range of 20-21 USD.This situation can not be considered long-term forecast, despite the fact that the price of global currency has dropped substantially over the previously observed value reaches 30 or more UAH. / USD.Pessimistic forecasts of analysts build for several reasons.At times of peak demand excessive nobody really wondered why the dollar is rising in Ukraine.It seemed quite natural result of the general instability in the country against the backdrop of the Crimean branch, the escalation of military confrontation in the East and associated with these circumstances panic expectations.Today, a few months later, it is possible to analyze the reasons for the fall of hryvnia and to assess its prospects.
Tool - currency interventions
In order to understand what is involved in the growth of the dollar in Ukraine should understand the common causes of this phenomenon without reference to a particular country.Economic laws are working about the same in all parts of the world.Exchange rates fluctuate and in Africa, Asia, and America, and even in faraway Australia, they carefully analyze trends stockbrokers, evaluate and forecast further growth or decline of ghostly digrammam.Of course, in each market has its own specific factors, but in general, the price of the currency depends on several determining factors.It is a powerful regulator of the intervention of the Central Bank of the country.This means that in the unlikely event of the fall (Indian rupee, for example), India's central bank begins to sell the dollar, thereby forcing down the price of it.Where does he get foreign currency - a secondary question.CB can remove it from the foreign reserves or borrow from another state.
There is another important question, the answer to that, you can understand why the dollar is rising in Ukraine.Today, the domestic state debt exceeded the amount of one and a half trillion hryvnia.This amount is quite comparable to the size of the gross domestic product, ie the value of all the wealth produced in the country per year.The amount of catastrophic, but not comprehensive.There is also the external debt, whose dimensions are measured in billions of dollars, and in the double digits.The government is in talks on restructuring, realizing it, obviously, as a deferred payment with the prospect of a full pardon, but, despite the optimistic promise, it is a matter until tight.Meanwhile, slowly but surely, the dollar is growing."Ukraine, why are you so long tolerated the criminal regime of Yanukovych?" - Asks patriotic citizens.What follows is a historical excursion.
not to say that during the reign of President VF Yanukovych's business in the economy were very good too.As argued Gontareva, the newly appointed Minister of Finance, three years had the "criminal regime, swept away by the Revolution of dignity" in order to spend 23 billion dollars on folk empty the maintenance rate within 8.10 UAH / $.
That's right.Moreover, the data Gontareva even flatter Azarov's government: they still need to add the amount of growth of external debt ($ 2.4 billion).But everything is relative.Just how high the growth rate of currency intervention now can be seen on the dynamics of reducing the foreign exchange reserves.
gold reserves of Ukraine at the beginning of 2015 were $ 7.5 billion. Less has never happened before in the history of the independent state, except in February 2004.Gold reserves of any country need to ensure their own economic independence.The special need for it arises in a particularly difficult periods, one of which is observed just now.However, in times of reserves usually spend very carefully.The reduction of 8 billion amid rising debt by $ 2.6 billion does not answer the question of why the growing rate of the dollar in Ukraine, and quickly and by hundreds of percent.After all, the stabilization of the course spent a lot of money, and the result was negative.
Naftogazovaya hole and emission of hryvnia
Involvement scheme to purchase natural gas may discourage uninformed person.In fact, the exchange of shares of the intermediary firm bonds treasury bonds (government bonds), seems to be devised in order to avoid wasting precious foreign currency, amounts, ultimately, to the redemption of all of them for the same dollars.Where did they come from?Yes, all of that is rapidly melting reserves.You need to pay for gas and bonds suppliers (both Russian and European) for some reason do not want to take.Since "Naftogaz" is spending more than it earns, the growing financial hole has to cover all the same securities and to repurchase them used hryvnia, which is printed faster pace.Shock Gosznak work, which resulted in the uncontrolled emissions - one of the reasons why the dollar is rising in Ukraine today, albeit secretly.Limit this phenomenon only sets the size of the gold reserves, which all reduced.
Whether today the war in the east of Ukraine - a complex and ambiguous.Judging by the number of human casualties and destruction, it certainly has a place.Moreover, it is the present government calls the main cause of economic distress.Northern neighbor (so-called Russia) takes the aggressive encroachments - which is why the dollar is growing in Ukraine and other unpleasant things occur.Indeed, the prolonged military operations, euphemistically called anti-terrorist and followed aimlessly conducted a partial mobilization, budget costs unacceptably expensive.However, it is not the main reason for the devaluation.Where a greater impact on this process has the gap of economic cooperation with the CIS countries, and first of all with the Russian Federation.The consequence has been a sharp reduction in the tax base.Industrial enterprises have lost their supply chains, increased unemployment and the budget deficit (the planned level of 3.7% of GDP, or 63.7 billion USD., In absolute terms, but it is unlikely it will be possible to keep within these limits).
solvency of the population - the basis of the prosperity of the national economy.Virtually instantaneous devaluation has put millions of customers of Ukrainian banks in a critical situation.Taking foreign currency loans at the rate of 5 to 8 hryvnia for one dollar, they were faced with a difficult choice between the loss partly paid for the property and the need to pull the strap three times unbearable grown obligatory payments.Bank losses were also considerable, the collateral value of the acquired facilities has decreased, as well as their liquidity.For customers became secondary question of what is involved in the growth of the dollar in Ukraine, they are often physically unable to fulfill the terms of the contract, which had a negative impact on the entire banking system, introducing it into stagnation.
All hopes for the coming stabilization of the economic situation in Ukraine, the country's leadership places on effective reforms and foreign (Western) credits, at least in such a way out from high tribunes declared.On why the dollar is growing in Ukraine, while soulful performances neither the President nor the Prime Minister did not tell us how and what can be expected in the near future, the hryvnia.One of the most important instruments of deterrence fall of the national currency was artificially limit sales of foreign currency to importers.This reduces the immediate demand for the dollar, but in this case it just gets delayed.With regard to the reform, the goal of the majority of the population is not entirely clear.Most often referred to as the achievements in the coming term, a possible agreement on visa-free border crossing with the EU.For currency regulation that question, however, is not relevant.Without large-scale foreign aid economy can not get out of a systemic crisis, and its no country is in no hurry to provide.In these circumstances, the question of why the dollar is rising in Ukraine, may soon completely lose relevance.