Since late summer 2014 oil price on the world market began to decline dramatically.From $ 110 it fell almost by half, and today is trading at $ 56.International analyst firm, known as the agency «Bloomberg New Energy Finance», conducted an analysis of the situation and tried to find out which countries have benefited, and what lost by the collapse of the world market fuel.
Who won and who lost: the generalized opinion
dealing with the question of who benefits from the fall in oil prices, it should be said that the first of the sharp decline in the value of "black gold" hit exporters.A striking example is Russia, which formed the bulk of the budget is due to the export of fuel.Falling cost of fuel has led to a sharp decline in the prices of goods in the dominant sectors of the economy, particularly in oil-producing and oil refining sector.Oil-importing countries have received some benefits from the situation.After oil prices in Russia and in the world drastically declined, Europe, India and China were able to buy fuel at an incredibly competitive price.Their businesses have found new article economies, allowing to obtain large profits.But in the US the situation is twofold.Some of the projects related to the development of shale oil, closed, as well as throughout the world.Other sectors of the economy got a chance to develop in connection with the reduction in the cost of gasoline and a reduction in the cost of transportation.Overall, the country has benefited from the situation.
primarily affected commodity economy
As mentioned above, the price of oil on the market is strongly reflected in the country with the raw type of economy.Most affected state budget which was formed on the basis of the cost of fuel.The oil-producing states in parallel catastrophic decline in the price of a barrel experienced an increase in the budget deficit.In Iran, a balanced budget is possible if the fuel cost of 136 dollars per barrel.In Venezuela, Nigeria, and the deficit will not be at the price of $ 120.For Russia, the optimal cost of fuel corresponding to 94 dollars.According to Anton Siluanov, served as finance minister, the loss of the Russian budget will amount to 1 trillion rubles, if the price of oil for 2015 will be held at the level of 75 dollars.Due to the fact that the price level of fuel is much lower than planned, states have to cut costs and to compensate them from the reserve fund.
loss of profitability of new projects in the world
Low oil prices hit not only in exporting countries, the market situation has left a negative impact on the economies of countries that are engaged in the implementation of projects related to the extraction of hard-to oil.Russia was forced to stop the development of the fuel in the Arctic, as the cost of production in the region is equivalent to $ 90 per barrel.Vagit Alekperov, served as president of the company "Lukoil", it says that in the next few years, the volume of oil production in the country will be reduced by at least 25%.Significantly affected projects framed which made the development of offshore deposits of "black gold".New deposits of this type are actively developed in Brazil and in Norway, Mexico and Russia.The economy of each country put at risk.
fall of the market and the situation in America
Falling oil prices in Russia and in the world was reflected in America.Serious losses had to incur US shale companies.Deposits of oil shale in the United States does not have high profitability, which led to the loss of work in many of them.Quite a number of projects have been frozen.Shale revolution, which says practically the whole world, according to experts, ended in failure.If we consider the fact that now in the world market price of fuel varies between 54-56 dollars per barrel, the colossal material gain from the country's own development and not talking.
Who benefits from the fall in oil prices, or a conspiracy theory
among the world's experts, there are many opinions and theories about who was the initiator of the fall in oil prices.Within each concept is a fact of material losses for the countries that participated in the alleged conspiracy.Hassan Rowhani, who served as the president of Iran, said the fault of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which are intended to reduce the share of Iran on the world oil market.It overlooked the fact that these countries are almost the most costly in the world on the circumstances.There are theories that tell about the collusion of Saudi Arabia with the United States, which sought to weaken Russia's position in the world.In considering the question, who benefits from the fall in oil prices, some experts put emphasis on the desire of Saudi Arabia to the destruction of the American slate industry, as it is in the long run is a threat to the country.
How are things really?
Analysts say that the fall in oil prices - it is a natural consequence of a chain of events that took place on the eve of the collapse in the world market.Generalized everything can be reduced to increase the number of offers.Shale gas revolution in the US, the return of the oil market of Iran and Lebanon, which have recently engaged in public affairs, and take part in the hostilities.The very same shale revolution in the United States, not only to stimulate an increase in supply in the market, it has become a prerequisite for the withdrawal from the market of a major customer (America).
step forward amid falling oil market
systematically increasing the price of oil over the years imposed on the development of the economies of the world, makes it clear that in the past decade, the benefits of use of fuel-exporting countries.For example, Russia due to a sharp jump in prices up to the level of 120 dollars per barrel very quickly managed to pay off foreign debts.Today the situation is reversed.While highly-exporting countries will experience a decline of the economy and the budget deficit, developing states and countries that do not have tight binding to the commodity markets, can make a step forward and substantially balance the situation on the world market.
Specific benefits and advantages of the collapse in oil prices
While the price for OPEC oil, America, Russia and many other countries simply are not satisfied, they are playing into the hands of a number of other countries.Reducing the cost of "black gold" leads to a reduction in costs for many companies worldwide.Transportation of goods falling in price, companies spend less money on the purchase of raw materials and electricity.For importing countries against the backdrop of the global situation was peculiar to increase incomes in real terms.Total negative background in the world in fact only stimulate the development of the world economy.According to preliminary estimates, the decline in the cost of fuel on the order of 30% increases and accelerates economic growth by 0.5 percentage pointsThe fall in prices of 10% stimulates the growth of GDP of importing the "black gold" is not less than 0.1 - 0.5 percentage pointsStates decide issues related to the budget and improve the foreign trade.China 10% drop in the cost of fuel accelerates economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2% due to the fact that the country's Oil accounts for 18% of total energy consumption.The situation is favorable reflected in India and Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa encourages foreign trade and reducing inflation.Advantages of the market collapse on itself felt many EU countries with weak economies and most of Eastern Europe.
suffer if OPEC on the situation?
Despite the fact that the elimination of the budget deficit in the countries of the OPEC oil price should be at a level of 120 to 136 dollars, the overall situation has not become a fatal blow to the economy.In fact, the production cost of fuel in the states of OPEC members remain at 5- $ 7.To cover the high social costs of the government public to satisfy fuel cost of Brent crude around 70 dollars.Failure to reduce the volumes of fuel can be explained not collusion, and past experience.When the 80-90-ies of the country's concessions to slow the fall in prices, they were deceived by their segment of the market was quickly occupied by competitors.Economic decline though is very strong in relation to the situation in the world, but it is not a fatal.The state continues to maintain its policy, according to which it is planned to increase annual production volume of fuel is not less than 30%.
What the experts expect to change the situation?
considering the question of who benefits from the fall in oil prices, experts emphasize that most benefits the circumstances got a little developed countries and China.This situation will not be in a static state forever, because at the moment the fuel greatly underestimated.Its real value should be in the range of $ 100.In the next few years, to the point how the balance of the world economy, this price is not worth waiting.Edward Morse, who served as chief of department of the analysis of world markets in the company of Citigroup, is betting on the price range of 70 to 90 dollars per barrel.In his opinion, it is this price would allow less developed countries to catch up with its competitors developed by the suspension of the latter due to lower income from the sale of fuel.Oil price data shows that now it was the turn of the young states to take positions in the global market.
Forecasts major rating agencies in the world
Projections for the future as to what will be the price of oil in rubles and dollars, different experts differed insignificantly.Representatives of the investment bank Morgan Stanley stake in the $ 70 per barrel by the end of 2015 and $ 88 by the end of 2016.The forecast is based on the failure of OPEC to reduce production of fuel.Rating agency Fitch has presented more optimistic forecasts.Its representatives say the price to $ 83 by the end of the year and a price of $ 90 for 2016.This is due to an expected decline in growth in the economies of underdeveloped countries to 4%, which may challenge many other experts.Most of the experts agreed with colleagues and attaches to the situation of the real exchange rate of the dollar.The price of oil in the long term will not be less than $ 100, and the main reason for that - the systematic depletion of the deposits of fuel with low profitability and growth in the number of cars in the world.
Summing up, the overall picture of what is happening or
At first glance, nothing good can be expected from the cost that began to fall dramatically the price of oil.Analytics and deeper consideration allowed to see the positive aspects of the situation on the world market.The global economy is well perceived situation.According to Lagarde, and according to preliminary estimates of the IMF, from falling oil developed economies can expect GDP growth at 0.8%, in particular, for the United States, this figure corresponds to 0.6%.Falling oil prices stimulate a drop in the price of fuel, which opens up opportunities for increased spending on other goods and services.Recovering economies and their development will become a confident and stable.Once studied the price of oil, an analyst from the company Oxford Economics said that at a price of $ 60 per barrel over the past two years, forecasts for GDP growth in China will be increased by 0.4% in Japan and the United States 0.1- 0.2%.
