Why Oil falls in price?This issue is of concern to many experts, as the cost of fuel on the international market affects the economy of most countries, particularly in Russia.From September 2014 to March 2015 there was an active drop of fuel.After a brief lull, the price went back down.If we consider the situation from the point of view of the theory, the natural resources pertaining to the category of exhaustible shall go up from year to year.However, due to certain circumstances the price of fuel in the stock markets came under the influence of politics.
The situation
understand why falling oil helps a detailed assessment of the market situation.In June 2014 no signs of trouble, and the price of a barrel of "black gold" reached the mark of 115 dollars.Most analysts were confident that in late 2014, the price closed at around $ 110.In such a scenario, no doubt even government analysts as the Russian budget was laid down the price of fuel in the amount of $ 100.
Contrary to forecasts for the next 6 months, all market participants have the opportunity to observe a huge drop of fuel.Charts have reached a two-year minimum and to move confidently to that of 2008.The minimum was reached in February at around 47.09 dollars.Despite the fact that the OPEC countries proudly stated that they were not afraid of fuel reduction of up to 10 dollars a barrel, below said level of the market to move to no avail.So, since February 2015, has started a reverse increase in raw materials.Today the cost of a barrel of oil was 63.69 dollars.
Forecasts prognoziki
A couple of months ago the management of many states to grab his head, puzzling question themselves about why the price of oil falls.The situation does not bode well as quotation unceasingly rolled down.Experts sorting out the situation, constantly insisted that nothing serious happens.
winter of 2015 there was talk about that at the beginning of the summer the situation will stabilize.Falling fuel by 40% per year is not comparable with the global fall of 75% during the crisis in 2008.
OPEC meeting in early spring has provided a partial answer to the question of why the drops of oil.It's simple: the proposal has been overestimated demand.Despite the fact that the situation should not be changed until the next meeting of which is scheduled for June 2015, the participants of the world market could see a positive roll back fuel prices by about 20%.You can say that the pressure of fuel by political factors slightly decreased, and the forecast increase in the cost of a barrel to 65 dollars by the end of 2015 can be called quite real.
What caused the fall of the oil market?
World oil market experts, analyzing the question of why the drops of oil, came to the conclusion that the situation was influenced by multiple factors.Due to the saturation in 2014 political and economic world events highlight one premise reduction of quotations problematic.You can talk about the beginning of the shale revolution in America.Since 2008, the volumes of fuel by the state increased by 4 million barrels per day.It is said that it is a little earlier the US was the largest consumer of "black gold".
change in policy of the country has led not only to an increase in the volume of fuel on the market, but also a significant reduction in demand.You can talk about sanctions the EU imposed on Russia.Not the last role in the formation of the situation played a return to the oil market of Libya and Iran.
Falling oil: unexpected or deliberate policy?
At the end of winter 2015 it was impossible to dispute the fact that the price of oil falls.The reasons for this phenomenon, experts found in many different aspects of the development of the world community.A very popular theory, according to which the decrease in quotations - an attempt to oust Saudi Arabia to the United States market.The country is the leader in the industry, can have a significant impact on the market.Not wanting to lose their customers, preferring to keep the lead, Saudi Arabia lowered prices to the level of production costs of fuel in the United States, which was accompanied by the closure of a number of companies in the United States.In particular, Venezuela did not support his partner and would prefer a reduction in production cost reduction.
What does the technical analysis of quotes?
Considering the dynamics of the schedule, the question of why falling oil upstaged.Experts are more interested in where the motion will be sent on.
In late winter 2015, speculators were guided by a strong level of support is at the level of 36 dollars (price 2008).It was from him were planned purchase.It was expected not only touch, but a good indicator to test 30 - $ 33, which leads to the likely panic.But the situation is played a bit differently.The price reached the level of 47 dollars, turned around and went up.At the moment, there is a good potential for growth.The most positive forecasts suggest that by the end of 2015, the price closed at 85 dollars per barrel, and even more.I would like to say that major analytical agencies and the World Bank, despite formed uptrend, expect one more hike of fuel down on the eve of growth to predicted values.
new format of the commodity market
If only a few years ago the answer to the question about why oil falls, was to give a very simple, but today even the short-term outlook is very inaccurate.This is due to the fact that the real goods become a "paper" assets.An active trade contracts and futures.The trade volume of the raw material is only 5%.Taking into account the situation in the world with a weakened economies of many countries and the problems of Russia, which is the most powerful supplier of fuel, can be attributed to the collapse of pricing.
raw material economy of the Russian Federation: the sensitivity to changes in prices on the international commodities market
Since 1999, Russia's economy is actively developing.Since 2003, its welfare state is obliged increase in world prices for energy carriers.The favorable circumstances helped to repay foreign debt and create a stabilization fund.A number of social problems is gone.In the past, the advantage and disadvantage of today - this is a direct dependence on raw materials and the inability to replenish the budget of the other sectors of the economy.
In 2014, the budget was formed due to higher profits from the sale of energy to 1 trillion rubles.Without attention there decrease in receipts from other sources to 300 billion rubles.This explains the concern of the government caused by this question: "Why do oil falls, dollar rises?".
those affected by the sharp decline in prices?
sharp decline in oil prices in the world market has caused upheavals in the economies of commodity-type.Russia has become a shining example of the direct impact of the situation in the commodities market on the economy.When the fuel confidently directed their lows, and experts studied the question of why the falling demand for oil in the country could be seen increased demand for foreign currency, the crisis in the banking sector and a sharp deterioration in living standards.It should be said about the high risk of devaluation of the ruble.Today, on a pullback in oil prices the government feels more confident, however, is the raw model of the economy will not be sent into the past of the favorable developments early to say.
