accumulation of funds in the budget, due to the low tax discipline and deformations in the behavior of economic agents, usually leads to undesirable consequences: reduction of private investment by the state and, therefore, the absence of GDP growth (the so-called crowding-out effect «crowd-out effect"Opening of the American economist R. Barroso).Emerging issues, as is characteristic of this effect for a modern national economy?
Check the connection between the dynamics of public and private investment, taking into account time lags lag response of private investment shows that the closer it is to the value of the unit, especially close correlation is observed.However, as we go to the market situation is changing: there has been increasing correlation between these macroparameters.
analysis of the dynamics of communication in public spending and a monthly GDP growth also showed that the Russian economy has enjoyed a close relationship in government spending and national output.We can assume government spending on essential leverage macrodynamics.
consider whether taxes on individuals in our economy as a counter-cyclical leverage and growth stimulator, or just as a way to replenish the treasury?
Direct taxes, according to the Keynesian approach are automatic levers of fiscal policy, because their value is almost directly proportional to revenues and the economic entities that generate taxes from individuals, therefore, the volume of gross domestic product.
In this regard, they must change more effectively influence macrodynamics than changes in indirect taxes.But according to the theory of supply this fall can slow down a reduced rate proportional tax.This theoretical premise at the time was one of the reasons for the development of the project in Russia a gradual shift in priorities in the tax on individuals, which contributes to the predominance of direct taxes.Those of today are: land, income, for the purchase of foreign currency, property, advertising and fees: customs, parking for border clearance, cleaning.Individuals pay contributions into the pension fund, and are IP - registration.
However, the structure of tax revenues, including income tax on natural persons, and other receipts from them, compared with other countries is slightly different - we dominated indirect taxes.Therefore, the functional mathematical relationship GDP growth of volumes of direct tax collections will include automatic change parameters.Analysis of the statistics shows that the most effective lever affecting macrodynamics is the share of direct tax collections of GDP, instead of such, which is the income tax on individuals nat.
In this regard, the development of the fiscal strategy is not only important to know the effectiveness of direct taxes as a counter-cyclical fiscal lever and interdependence of the tax revenues from their own values at the previous time intervals.This phenomenon can be described using the methods of economic analysis.
The economic literature is widely believed that the country's economy is very sensitive to tax changes.In addition, it is believed that this relationship in recent years has intensified, as allegedly evidenced by the high and ever-growing value of the tax multiplier.These estimates should be treated with caution, because the GDP growth, laid the basis for this calculation could be provided and other factors.In addition, the formation of the reaction at the level of national production tax changes takes time, and the tax on individuals - a phenomenon present.Therefore, we should speak about the combined effect of tax changes, timing.
Consideration of the effect of taxes on the economy in the conventional form through the mechanism of the so-called fiscal multiplier is not entirely correct.Since this figure does not include indirect factors.The level of direct taxation is one of the most effective levers of fiscal smoothing cyclical dynamics.But if it is applied in the strategy of sustainable growth policies should take into account three main points:
- between the change in the share of direct taxes and a reaction volume of national production there is a lag of delay;
- effect of the actions of tax macrodynamics distributed in time;
- single change in the tax burden on the economy is not only prolonged changes in the dynamics of GDP, but the dynamics of tax revenues in future periods.
