6 errors of human thought

Cognitive distortions - are errors in human thinking, a kind of logical traps.In certain situations, we tend to act according to the established patterns, even when we think that we proceed from common sense.

suggest you avoid these common traps that deprive us of objectivity.

1. The illusion of control

People tend to overestimate their influence on events in the successful outcome of which they are interested.This phenomenon was discovered in 1975 by American psychologist Ellen Langer in the course of experiments with lottery tickets.Participants in the experiment were divided into two groups: the first group of people could choose their own lottery tickets, and the members of the second group were given no right to choose.Two days before the draw experimenters offered to participants of both groups to exchange your ticket for another - in a new lottery with more chances to win.

Obviously, the proposal has been beneficial, but those members, who are themselves elected tickets, in no hurry to part with them - as if their ticket is a personal choice could affect the probability of winning.

2. Preference zero risk

Imagine that you have a choice: to reduce the small risk to the full zero or significantly reduce a high risk.For example, to reduce to zero the total probability of the crash or drastically reduce the number of car accidents.What would you choose?

Based on these statistics, it would be better to choose the second option: the mortality rate of aircraft accidents is much lower than the death rate from motor vehicle accidents - with the result that such a choice would save more lives.Yet studies show that most people choose the first option: zero risk at least in some area looks like a soothing, even if your chances of becoming a victim of the crash negligible.

3. Selective perception

Let's say you do not trust GM.And if this topic is of great concern to you, you probably read news articles about genetically modified organisms.While reading, you are more and more convinced that right: the danger is obvious.But here's the rub - it is likely that you are paying much more attention to the news, reinforcing your point of view, the arguments in favor of GMOs.So, you lose objectivity.This tendency of people to pay attention to the information that is consistent with their expectations, and ignore everything else, called selective perception.

4. Error Player

Error players often lurks gamblers.Many of them are trying to find the relationship between the probability of the desired outcome of a random event and its previous outcomes.The simplest example - tossing a coin: if 9 consecutive falls "tails," most people would be the next time to put on the "eagle" as if too frequent loss of "tails" increases the probability of loss.But it is not so: in fact the odds are the same - 50/50.

5. survivorship bias

this logical trap discovered during the Second World War, but it can be caught in peacetime.During the war, the US military leadership has decided to reduce the number of casualties among the bombers and went down the order: as a result of the fighting to find out on what parts of the aircraft necessary to strengthen the protection.We began to study the aircraft returned and found many holes in the wings and tail - these parts, and it was decided to strengthen.At first glance it looked quite logical - but fortunately, the military has come to the aid of the supervisory statistician Abraham Wald.He explained to them that they almost made a fatal mistake.It actually holes in the aircraft returned carrying information on their strong areas and not for the weak.Planes, "wounded" in other places - for example, the engine or fuel tank - simply did not return from the battlefield.

On the principle of "the wounded survivors," is to think now, when we're going to jump to conclusions on the basis of asymmetric information for any two groups.

6. The illusion of transparency

You are trapped in a situation where the lie is necessary.But what is difficult to do it - you think you see through any involuntary movement will give your insincerity.Familiar?It is an illusion of transparency - the tendency for people to overestimate the ability of others to realize their true motives and emotions.

In 1998, psychologists conducted an experiment with students at Cornell University.Some students read the questions from the cards and answer them by telling the truth or false, depending on the instructions on the card.Audiences were asked to identify when speakers are lying, and the speakers were asked to rate their chances of other circle around your finger.Half liars assumed that they will bite - but in fact only a quarter of the students exposed.This means that the liars greatly overestimated the sagacity of his listeners.

Why is this happening?Most likely, because we do know too much about yourself.And so I think that our knowledge is obvious to the outside observer.However, the illusion of transparency and working in the opposite direction: we overestimate and their ability to recognize the lies of others.

Articles Source: adme.ru