Russian economy overcomes another round of difficulties, one of which - the weakening of the national currency against the dollar.What is the cause of the fall of the ruble?What is it - a systemic phenomenon, or a speculative effect?What are the implications for citizens and businesses?
pessimistic forecast
According to some analysts, the value of the US dollar by the end of 2014 could grow to 37-40 rubles (or will it be the average US dollar exchange rate).The main reason for the weakening of the Russian banknotes called deterioration of the national economy.The experts, who are supporters of such a pessimistic forecast, also believe that the already low GDP dynamics will decline further, and capital - flow out of the country.
positions of the ruble, analysts say, the pessimists will not only weaken against the dollar, but also to other major world currencies.There is also a view that the Russian economy is now there is a period of steady devaluation of the ruble due to the deterioration of the balance of payments.Worsening position of the Russian currency, analysts say, may contribute to the policy of the Federal Reserve, which for 2014 can continue to reduce monetary measures impact on the economy, and in 2015 started to raise the refinancing rate.
Opinion traders
Professionals in the field of foreign exchange operations is considered that the position of the ruble against the dollar is not worse than that of other currencies.The pressure of the market, according to traders, was also tested, and the Australian dollar, the Argentine peso, the national currency and Turkey - lira.All of them, as the ruble - the so-called "commodity" money.In late 2014, the dollar, according to trade experts, can cost 34-35 rubles, euros - about 45-46 units of the Russian currency.During the years, however, there may be fluctuations.
main reason for the fall of the ruble, believe traders - in the global reorientation of investments - equity derived from emerging markets, which belongs to Russia, and is invested in developed economies.This trend may be relevant in the coming years.However, the weakening of the national currency of the Russian Federation is believed to financial experts, can strongly feel the citizens: a high probability of growth of consumer prices.
opinions of scientific environment
Some experts from the number of economists believe that the depreciation of the ruble in 2014 will take a protracted nature.As a result, the Central Bank decision to minimize the foreign exchange market regulation may be revised.However, once the exchange rate stabilizes, the central bank may again weaken the control over bids.Very much in the national monetary policy, as experts believe, depends on the proper interpretation and understanding of the economic growth.For example, to talk about the growth of the real economy on the example of developed countries, as scientists believe, there is no reason, because there is too expensive labor.
Artificial growth through the accumulation of equity investments - is, according to some experts, "bubble", which eventually burst.However, for Russia, as scientists believe, economic growth can be quite tangible, and that the weakening of the currency - the real factor of its incentives.In the fall of the ruble increased exports, while investors increased profits (but may also lower the credibility of the market).
optimistic scenario
Despite the abundance of negative scenarios regarding the ruble against the dollar and its impact on the Russian economy, has among economists is quite optimistic view of the situation.There is a version that in 2014 some of the crisis, characteristic of the previous years, get rid of the euro zone, which is the main foreign trade partner of Russia.The economy of countries where the official currency - the euro in 2014 could grow by more than 1%.
This can lead to an increase in exports of Russian raw materials, as well as an increase in the price for it.If that happens, it will grow and the trade balance of the Russian Federation, and followed him to slow the outflow of foreign capital.The result will also support the ruble against the dollar.Under less optimistic scenario, the GDP growth in Russia in 2014 could exceed 2.5%, and the dollar exchange rate will not exceed 33 rubles.Thus, a forecast that over the fall of the ruble within 2014.
Retrospective
Among economists there is a view that the depreciation of the ruble against the major world currencies - the phenomenon completely new and completely natural to the Russian economy.If you do not take into account the crisis of 1998, when the national bank note RF dollar fell several times, it is enough to recall the economic recession in 2008-2009.Then, the Russian currency has undergone at least a strong devaluation than in 2014.However, as subsequent events showed, the ruble over the next few years, confidently played at the position of the dollar and the euro.
can also recall the currency trading in the fall of 2012 - when the course was characterized by very high volatility, many experts predicted the imminent collapse of the ruble, but it did not happen.Today, the Russian currency has fallen in price, but it is on the basis of past experience, can not give rise to make far-reaching conclusions on further development of the national economy.In 2008-2009, the economy had specific reasons for the fall of the ruble.2014 minutes may reveal other factors affecting the course of the Russian currency.
Trends in developing countries
there among economists believed that the ruble is behaving in currency trading around the same as bank notes and other developing countries, especially countries BRICS (which rank as Brazil, India, Russia,China and South Africa, sometimes).The fact that now there is a global investment outflow of foreign investors from these economies.Weaken the national currency, as there is good reason for the fall - the ruble, the real, the yuan or the rand does not matter - a factor common to the countries of the group.Russia, thus also losing attractiveness for foreign capital.
Outflows also related to the fact that the US Federal Reserve gradually tightened monetary policy by reducing the release of unsecured dollars and increasing domestic rates.Following the example of the leading economies of the world "tighten their belts" and other developed countries.Investors are seeing this trend, imbued with a lot of confidence in these markets and prefer to send capital back, but not in developing countries.Economists also point out that the BRICS currency rather than weaken, as the dollar strengthened by improving the state of the US market.
Internal causes weakening of the ruble
fall of the ruble, as some experts believe, is not caused by external and internal factors.Firstly, because of the withdrawal of active licenses from the Central Bank of Russian private banks - in 2013, this procedure was carried out in relation to 20-bank financial institutions.The most resonant precedent - the closure of the "Master-Bank", one of the largest in the country.Second, the Bank of Russia decided to gradually release the ruble in "free floating".
The reason - the desire to encourage the development of industry in the country, which is not easy to maintain the profitability of the export."Weaker" ruble could significantly reduce the cost of Russian goods and make domestic production more competitive.Some economists believe that the depreciation of the national currency of Russia is beneficial to the authorities: loans taken on government bonds in rubles, and the oil revenue is calculated in US dollars.With the growth of the dollar in the state will assume more of the national currency to pay the interest on the bonds.
consequences of the weakening of the ruble
What threatens the depreciation of the ruble?Despite the fact that the weakening of the currency - is, first of all, macroeconomic indicators, the consequences of this phenomenon can sense and ordinary citizens.According to some experts, the fall of the Russian national currency may lead to a rise in import prices (especially for electronics, automobiles, medicines, clothing, as well as manufactured goods, raw materials for the production of which is purchased abroad).
price hike in these segments as analysts estimated, could reach 15%.In addition, the more expensive holiday for Russians abroad (especially in developed countries).Prices of air tickets and hotels are expressed mostly in dollars, and their nominal value, in spite of currency fluctuations, remains unchanged, which means that the actual value of the travel expenses from the translation of the Russian currency increases.Citizens, therefore, can not be indifferent to the phenomenon of the fall of the ruble.What will the further depreciation of the national banknotes of the Russian Federation, economists explained quite lucidly.
Factor Fed
As noted above, there is a theory according to which the rate of the ruble to the dollar directly depends on the policy of the Federal Reserve System.Now this financial institution reduces the so-called program of "easing" when the printing press produced unsecured dollars.Fed reduces purchases of bonds and mortgage contracts.The new leadership of the Federal Reserve System promises a flexible approach to working with this program.There is at this financial institution some changes in the relationship with the government.If years earlier, the Fed had to convince Congress to increase the ceiling of public debt, now it does not make sense - American Parliament has the right to modify the ceiling at any moment.This, economists believe, helps to reduce the risk of the US economy from the actions of the Federal Reserve System.Thus, the US market has a good chance of stabilizing and, as a consequence, strengthening the dollar in international currency trading.
Pros and cons of a weaker ruble
fall of the ruble - a phenomenon that is not always a negative effect on the economy.Is this phenomenon the pros and cons.Among the indisputable advantages - increased revenues of exporting companies and, as a consequence, the growth of tax payments to the budget of Russia.Stimulated import substitution - the price of foreign goods increases, and becomes more profitable to buy the products of domestic production.It contributes to economic growth.In turn, for an understanding of what threatens to fall in the ruble exchange rate, it is worth remembering that such external debt.This is money that residents took overseas - usually in dollars.Therefore, the main disadvantage of the weakening of the Russian currency - the growth of the load on such borrowers.Russia's foreign debt currently amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars (according to the calculations of some experts, it has already exceeded the country's international reserves).Long-term and significant weakening of the ruble becomes unprofitable for companies (and especially for commercial banks) that need foreign creditors.
Forecasts banks
largest Russian and foreign banks are also trying to assess the fall of the ruble and predict the future dynamics of the national currency of the Russian Federation.It should be noted that credit institutions are set generally optimistic.Banks such as "VTB Capital», Morgan Stanley, as well as the "Alfa-Bank", expect that the end of 2014 the dollar will cost 35 rubles.Citi, «Opening", "Uralsib" see the ruble significantly strengthened: in the publications of these institutions figured numbers between 32.3 and 34.5 units of the Russian currency for the American bank note to the end of the year.It looks somewhat pessimistic forecast of the ruble by HSBC (35,4 per dollar), "Renaissance" (35.5).The greatest weakening of the Russian currency sees UBS (36,5).It is worth noting that among the bank's forecasts concerning the exchange rate to other major world currencies - the euro - is also observed a significant difference - from 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) to 48.4 units per euro banknotes of the Russian Federation (Citi).
