economic situation in Russia is quite complicated, and many citizens think about the fact that ensure safety of savings by investing them in the purchase of an apartment.Some suggest to invest in real estate at the expense of personal funds, while others rely on bank credit.But is it worth taking is now housing mortgage?Perhaps there is a more practical way of investing?
Mortgage crisis: two groups of indicators
To answer the question whether it is worth taking is now a mortgage, when Russia was a difficult economic situation, it will be useful to begin to analyze what are the key components of the crisis of the banking sector, which so many analysts say.Then, we try to determine how much blame for the situation of the EU and US sanctions against Russia - that they require a key role in the fact that in the Russian economy are having crisis trends.
So, what are the problems in the national banking system of Russia?Experts distinguish two major groups of indicators crisis, which in turn are influenced by a large number of different factors.
solvency crisis
first indicator of a crisis: declining solvency of the population.People simply can not afford to issue new loans.This, in turn, due to the following factors.
Firstly, rising inflation, an increase in the prices of most consumer goods, especially imported.The most significant rise in the cost of household appliances.And this despite the fact that real wages if it grows, it is not comparable proportions.Also steadily rising prices for housing and communal services, transport.Result: citizens are no remaining funds to service loans.
Secondly, it is a significant part of zakreditovannost citizens.Many people do not so much think much about whether to take a mortgage right now, how much over how to repay previous loans.Very many Russians have difficulties with the repayment of current debt.
now try to determine how the impact of the crisis on the occurrence of the first indicators of economic sanctions against Russia.Regarding the first factor, probably the effect is.Rise in price of food experts associated with the food embargo Russia in respect of European suppliers - and this is somehow related to the sanctions.This is the Russian response to them.Regarding the second factor - it is likely to blame the sanctions are relative.The fact that the majority of loans are made by Russians long before the complications of the political situation.
Perhaps we may also note that both factors are forming the corresponding indicator linked.Rise in price of products and services is obviously even more limited potential borrower's solvency, provided that it has a credit.
crisis in banks
second indicator crisis: the deterioration of the situation in the banks, as a result - the failure of financial institutions to make loans, including mortgages, as well as offering them a comfortable environment for the consumer.Factors situation, in turn, as follows.
First, banks are now extremely limited free capital.In order for something to give borrowers the banks that something should be.Liquidity Russian credit institutions by many experts is assessed as low.
Second, banks, oddly enough, are in a similar situation with borrowers - in terms of debt load.The fact that they are many who need to - to foreign creditors, the Russian Central Bank.
, in turn, try to determine whether the sanctions are to blame in this situation?Many experts believe that this is so.Why is that?Proponents of this view emphasize that a large part of the Russian credit and financial institutions - the debtors of foreign creditors.They are in the years before sanctions are actively carried out foreign loans, taking advantage of attractive conditions on interest.Debt recovery is largely assumed by refinancing mechanisms - due to new foreign borrowings.Now, when in the conditions of sanctions, Russian banks have practically lost the ability to borrow abroad, financiers need to look for new sources of payment.Many lenders, analysts say, does not have its own reserves for that.And especially do not have the capital to issue it as a loan.
In the priority - the situation in the banks?
forecasts as to how to develop a mortgage, what to expect from the market, to a large extent depend on, analysts say, is still on the real situation in the banks.Respects, the activity of potential borrowers, at this stage of secondary importance.Even if the Russians did not have problems with paying capacity dictated by the increase in prices (especially - in the electronics and other imported goods) and the lack of real wage growth, the situation in most of the banking industry is too far from the optimum, to the mortgage market developed as actively as inthe past few years, economists believe.
played at a percentage
Most likely, analysts say, if the banks wish to actively lend to people in crisis, they will do so significantly raising interest rates.Or maximum tightening the criteria for the approval of the loan.Thus, it is quite possible scenario in which a person does not even have to think about whether to take a mortgage right now.Most likely, the bank simply will not be able to provide a loan for a comfortable environment.Or even refuse the request due to internal causes of the crisis.Does it make sense to take a mortgage right now, when the situation in the banks is far from optimal?Many experts believe that this kind of solution is not too justified.
If the application is approved
consider a successful scenario - say, the Russian people do not have problems with the loan, he has a high salary, and the bank, in principle, willing to give him a loan to buy housing.Should I take a mortgage that is now a citizen?The answer to this question can be given, based on the study of key aspects of the deal not happen so that upon purchase of an apartment after a while it will become cheaper so that the mortgage would be unprofitable for a man?
In this aspect, solving the issue of whether it is worth taking a mortgage right now, it is most expedient to study the market is not so much from the point of view of the crisis in the banks and sanctions, but in terms of trend analysis, reflecting the dynamics of the purchase and sale of real estate.Of course, the political situation plays a role here.But the key factor is the prospect of investment in housing, experts say - the situation in the relevant market.
situation on the real estate market
how things work in the real estate sector?Now profitable to take a mortgage in terms of the expected movement in house prices?Experts identify three possible scenarios regarding the development prospects of the market.
According to the first, real estate prices in the next few years will remain at more or less corresponding to the current.Proponents of this view believe that the current real estate market in terms of pricing, supply and demand equilibrium sufficiently.The potential decrease in consumer activity due to limited lending by banks and low platezhesopobnosti borrowers, economists believe, will be accompanied by a corresponding reduction proposals - largely due to the fact that homeowners prefer to wait out the crisis and not to sell too cheap housing.Now profitable to take a mortgage correlative with this scenario?Probably not.Prices will remain the same, and interest to the bank, which, moreover, are likely to be high because of the crisis, will have to pay.
has, however, make sense to issue an apartment on credit, if people now rent an apartment, and the estimated size of the payments will be comparable with the rental rates.However, this option requires a considerable amount of a citizen for a down payment on the mortgage.And in this case it is likely to be more profitable to issue it as a deposit, to receive interest due to which, in turn, pay for rents an apartment.Some banks now offer to make a deposit of 20% per annum or more.This is due, according to analysts, with an increase in refinancing, which in December rose to 17%.If we take as a basis discussed above scenario, from the investment point of view, the deposit will look more profitable investing in an apartment - it is unlikely that it is, in this case, increases of 20% for the year, and then at the same rate, while in the casewith deposit interest calculation is carried out by the bank in the progression.
second scenario suggests that property prices still rise.This will be due primarily to inflationary processes.It is expected, for example, that summing up the development of the economy in 2014 the corresponding figure will exceed 11%.Even if the demand for real estate market is not sufficiently dynamic, experts say, the increase in housing prices, in general, can be expected in terms commensurate with inflation.Should I take out a mortgage right now, if we consider this scenario?
likely targets for a potential buyer in this case, there will be roughly the same as in the case of the first embodiment.That is, you can take out a loan for an apartment, if you are currently housing removed, and interest payments will be the same or not much more than rent.Or place a deposit for the amount that is collected for an initial fee, and receive interest at the expense of paying for rent.
third scenario assumes a reduction in housing prices.This will be due, in turn, a possible imbalance between supply and demand on the market, which can be heated by the fact that in recent years Russia has been introduced significant in terms of fund buildings.While much of the apartments being built in the framework of such projects - equity, yet significant percentage of them will subsequently be sold at market price or, for example, be resold.It can create, according to some economists, the excess supply in the housing market.
likely, if you follow this scenario, there is no sense even to wonder whether it is worth to take a mortgage right now.Of course, this will not be the best option.When it comes to finding profitable investments, it is possible to draw attention to the deposits.If there is a need for housing - better yet rent it, especially because the relevant rates are usually reduced after the segment of sale.
interrelated factors
Of course, each of the scenarios in the real estate market to a large extent depends on the situation in the banking sector, and the level of solvency of the citizens.Therefore, we can say that the above factors affect the crisis also directly on the housing market, as well as at any other.However, experts still believe that the objective market forces - supply and demand - shaped by the factors mentioned to a limited extent.Very important criteria reflecting the real needs of Russians in different types of housing, taking into account the impact of migration processes, changes in technologies, construction of apartments, etc.
Factor dollar
Some experts, however, consider it permissible to allocate also the fourth scenario, involving a significant increase in property prices due to the effects of a unique, in some ways, a factor.As is known, the dollar rose against the ruble in 2014, almost twice.However, most of the currencies of other developing countries, including the CIS states, so do not cheaper to the US.As a result, the average salary in dollars, and Russia, for example, in Kazakhstan, virtually leveled off, or even, perhaps, began to give way to what is set in the neighboring country.As a result, the apartment in the Russian Federation in terms of, say, the Kazakh tenge began in a number of segments significantly cheaper than in neighboring countries.Citizens of Kazakhstan eventually come to Russia and buy a house here.This trend, as some economists may continue and worsen due to the similar activity of inhabitants of other neighboring countries - Belarus, Azerbaijan, the Baltic states, perhaps China.This may to some extent to heat up demand for real estate and determine the dynamics of price growth in excess of inflation.
Perhaps one should examine when deciding the issue of whether it is worth to take a mortgage, the opinions of experts on the fourth scenario, but only if he lives in a border town.That is, this option can be considered as localized.
Conclusions
Thus, we have identified the main factors determining the crisis trends in the property market, and covered the basic scenario, the study of which will enable us to decide whether it is worth to take a mortgage for the apartment in the current market situation.
try to summarize.Thus, the market of bank lending - a crisis.Banks, in all likelihood, will not be able to issue loans with the dynamics that they have done in previous years, and on the same terms as interest.Borrowers, in turn, will not always have an objective ability to pay the mortgage.Consequence - the reduction in demand.The cause of the banking crisis - the political situation.So Decide whether to take a mortgage now, when they go to the EU and US sanctions against Russia will probably say no.It is necessary to wait until the situation is stabilized in the banks, they will find new sources of loans for repayment of existing obligations, or to help them in this government.
second factor that may influence the decision about whether to take out a mortgage right now - the situation in the Russian real estate market.The baseline scenario, economists are three.This price stabilization, a small increase in their commensurate with inflation or decline.Or, if a person lives in a border town, a slight increase in the cost of apartments.
Should I take out a mortgage?Pros and cons of this decision with respect to the current market situation, there are quite obvious.Among the positive aspects - the ability to invest if demand in the near future will grow.Economists, though, and recognize the considerable depth of the current crisis, it is believed that the improvement will occur in the foreseeable future - due to the possible return of oil prices, import substitution, diversification of the economy.Also, investments in real estate, at least, ensure the safety of cash investment in correlation with inflation.Among the negative aspects of the decision to purchase housing - the probability of falling prices or lack of growth is quite high.Neither one nor the other will be beneficial to buyers of apartments.Also, most likely, at this stage, banks are not able to offer comfort to the borrower interest.
