Residents of Russia closely watching changes in the bi-currency basket (even those who have no foreign exchange savings), because they understand how their life is connected to these two indicators.But the economy is, unfortunately, not algebra and geometry: a clear and unequivocal answer is no.The oddity is that the ruble falls only in relation to the euro.The dollar since July, our national currency has increased by 1.5-2%.
Who shakes the deck?
Asked why rising euro and the dollar falls against the ruble, simple answer.Even the lazy could not be seen from news reports that a great power as the United States has put so much effort, surprisingly not that rate falls, but how slowly it happens.And that is why the euro is rising (2013), perhaps the US situation does not give the answer.
In connection with the entry of Russia into the WTO a high exchange rate for the Russians themselves would be a tragedy.But the expensive euro disadvantageous effect on the consumer basket Russians.Practice shows that our people love to buy imported goods at a low price.And it is at first sight seem favorable.Indeed, many imported goods much cheaper local because of low export duties.Therefore, from a high rate of national currency will benefit importers, filled up to cheap foreign goods.And that produces a domestic manufacturer to remain in the warehouses.
Where will this lead?
will start to close the company - our partners.Or our own factories, losing to compete with cheaper and high-quality imported goods, also closed.There is a rhetorical question: "To lend, who build houses?"
economic protectionism, a reasonable size, was always good for a country applying a tool to protect their own producers.Therefore, the state to the extent possible to maintain the low rate of the ruble, that the economy has not collapsed.
Capricious currency
Simply put, the answer to the question: "Why the euro is growing?"very simple.EU countries are artificially inflate the rate of the currency, in order to own the economy collapsed during the crisis.The name for this phenomenon - the devaluation.Most likely, our central bank is expensive to maintain the ruble exchange rate, but everyone knew what it would take Russia's WTO accession.Recently, oil prices have stabilized in the dynamics is not observed sharp jumps - this is an obvious advantage.But such fluctuations also have an impact on why the euro is growing.
If you go from the opposite point of view, a strong European currency is not so favorable euro area itself, for the same reason that we do not need a high exchange rate.And then it becomes not clear why our civilized neighbors did not take action.The only currency that behaves predictably, is the pound - is growing slowly relative to all currencies.Now I understand why the British did not want to visionary change their pounds for euros.
Why the euro is growing slowly?
This contributes to the growth of public debt in Germany, the main donor in the Eurozone.Plus, the main meanie eurozone - France.The government simply raised the taxes (all remember how Gerard Depardieu became Mordovian farmer?).A control shot was the VAT increase in Italy (22%).The hot Italian, not all people are patient, like the Russians.Recall that in the economic history of the Russian VAT applied at the same time - 20%, and sales tax - 5% (total 25%).Savvy Russian Jewish bankers sometimes exceed, as to 25% indirectly decided to cheat another 1%.In fact, we get more as the first to the price of VAT (20%), and already received the sum calculated sales tax - (5%), and 25 percent of the net instead we paid 26%.
Neighbors also suffered
But the question of why the euro is growing, there is not only in Russia.Ukrainian hryvnia also feels the negative dynamics for themselves.It was affected by the statement of the Fed (US Federal Reserve) Chairman Ben Bernanke that the measures to boost dollar transferred in November-December.A lever, lowering the dollar, while playing at improving euro was the increase in the price of gold (3.5%).
worth remembering that economic laws - a set of factors affecting the world market, and one of them will never be decisive for global change.It remains only to observe further developments in the economy and in the world.
