Enterprise of the construction industry - a complex industrial and economic system characterized by a set of properties, inextricably linked to its internal features.These include: reliability, flexibility, mobility, adaptability, sustainability, competitiveness, innovation susceptibility, investment activity, which reflects the dynamics of the intensity of investment, scale, focus and effectiveness of its investments, the investment attractiveness of the company as a whole.
In modern conditions defined by high competition in the industry and market saturation of the traditional type of products (services), the advantage is given to those construction companies that have relatively high market value, the growth of which can not be achieved without additional investment resources for the completion of fixed and current assets onimplementation of measures to improve the competitiveness of products, the development of enterprises and increasing investment attractiveness.
Increasing the investment attractiveness of the company assumes management of investment activity, which obviously is the most important parameter of a construction company.
The system management features of the investment activity of particular importance is attached to planning, allowing on the basis of forecast data to determine the strategic objectives of the investment activities of economic entities, the ways and means of achieving them.Investment attractiveness of the company in the strategic plan aims to increase investment activity and maintaining its optimum level.
Limits planning investment activity are established in the process of forecasting the result of which are the quantitative predictive value of the index of investment activity (structural indicators) in the future, a critical level of investment activity of the building enterprise, the achievement of which leads to qualitative changes in its market value.Given that the investment attractiveness of the enterprise requires a balanced outlook, the complexity of the forecasting process and requirements for the quality of the results, it is possible to assess the predictive value of indicators of investment activity using several methods.
Taking into account a number of factors: the specificity of the object of forecasting (the investment attractiveness of the company, its activity and its structural indicators), availability of statistical information about the object, the medium-term period of anticipation, should be used in the process of predicting the investment activity of the building enterprise extrapolation methods.Informed prerequisite for application of these methods is a degree of inertia in the dynamics of investment activity of construction companies in the short and medium term.
extrapolation methods based on flashbacks, during which formed a model of the dynamics of the object prediction: the index of investment activity of the building enterprise, its structural parameters and dissemination of trends in indicators of the retrospective period for the future.
Studies have shown that to determine the predictive values of indicators of activity of the enterprise perspective of the construction industry is the use of the following methods:
• analytical alignment;
• simple exponential smoothing;
• exponential smoothing Holt-Winters;
• Brown's exponential smoothing.
All these methods are based on the assumption that the investment attractiveness of a company and depending on the levels of a number of dynamic performance of its investment activity on the time factor.
