World news from time to time, talking about the events in the world's poorest countries (Rwanda, Cambodia, Somalia), use the term "humanitarian catastrophe".Imagination paints a grim picture viewer, backed by documentary footage from the scene.The naked children with swollen bellies and sores on the skin, to the protruding bones skinny adults, the elderly infirm, helpless and exhausted lying on the ground ...
What is a humanitarian catastrophe, and why it is happening
addition to natural causes such as droughtor other natural disasters, there are other factors that cause such serious consequences.On television screens flashed some people, mostly dressed in camouflage, they were waving their assault rifles and bazookas, something bellicose chant and shoot someone.
humanitarian disaster - a phenomenon in the modern world often accompanying civil war.Its main feature - is the emergence of a significant threat to the life of the population of the region covered by it.Most often, the situation looks as if conflicts occur on ethnic or sectarian, but a careful examination of the circumstances, as a rule, it turns out that the main reason lies in the collision of economic interests, ethnic or religious factor is merely a pretext, skillfully used the invisible players.
war and the destruction of habitual way
humanitarian disaster is a consequence of the destruction of the basis upon which the life of the state or a part thereof.Stops operating companies, are not sowing or harvesting, seriously disrupted energy infrastructure may not be fully operational public authorities, health and education systems.This has happened in the siege of Leningrad.Similar phenomena occurred during the famine in the Volga region and Ukraine.Interethnic armed strife in Yugoslavia, the Holocaust (ethnic extermination of the Jewish population during the Second World War), the mass killings of Armenians in Sumgait and many other sad events of the XX century, too, fall under the term "humanitarian catastrophe."Its symbol - the proverbial "man with a gun," faithful companion of revolutions and upheavals.
recently and it was difficult to assume that something similar could happen in Ukraine, the country is certainly poor, but quite peaceful, which formed a certain political balance, and the majority of the population in his revolutionary sentiments were alien.
What can we learn from modern history
History teaches us in the first place that teaches nothing.And secondly, it demonstrates that the key to prosperity, or at least well-being of any nation is a long-term political stability.Examples of the "color" revolutions, wars of liberation and the overthrow of "dictatorial-totalitarian" regimes in Iraq, Libya and many other countries eloquent testimony to the fact that after their country there is chaos and, as its consequence, economic stagnation.The civil war in the new-democratic country can go on for years, it becomes a consequence of the humanitarian catastrophe.It does not care the organizers of the revolutions, they have other worries.
situation in Ukraine, despite the predominantly European appearance of its citizens, painfully reminiscent of what is happening in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya.There were private militias controlled by local oligarchs.Armed men consider themselves the military and reserve the right to force to establish order, they seem fair.
Ukraine on the Eastern Front
humanitarian disaster in Ukraine (currently only in the eastern part) is due to the same reasons that it is always there.The war began that the current government is the operation, and anti-terrorism.When journalists covering the events, both Russian and Ukrainian, the emphasis is usually made on the emotional side of the material, showing the bodies of dead (including women, children and the elderly) or showing the funeral of "the heroic defenders of the unity of the country."The inhabitants of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, after escaping from the destroyed houses, become refugees, they find refuge in Russia or in other regions of Ukraine.The real scale of the disaster the media are trying to hide, like troop losses.The state, in addition to the war-blown human lives, carries huge material losses.It is likely a situation where the humanitarian disaster soon spread to the rest of the country, even if the most favorable option for Kiev the end of hostilities.
Crimea
Apart from the indignant cries of Ukrainian national patriots, can only state the fact that the separation of the peninsula was quite natural reasons.Centripetal mood was characterized by predominantly ethnic Russian population during the whole period of Ukraine's independence."Independence" was a serious reason to think about the direction of the whole country, and the presence of Russian troops was not possible to attempt to "demonstrative whipping" unruly.
Before the referendum, supporters of a united and indivisible predicted the imminent humanitarian catastrophe in the Crimea on the basis of many economic factors.Reference was made to the impending blockade of the peninsula, the inability to deliver the product, its failure to provide itself with water, electricity and gas, loss-making farms, which is expressed in the traditional subsidized budget, and many other reasons for disturbed people Autonomous Region will soon be asked back in the Ukraine.That did not happen.The reason is the same - the war.Or rather, its presence in Ukraine and the lack of Crimea.The rest, of course, is the problem, but solved.
What's next?
If we consider the most optimistic scenario in Ukraine, there is reason to believe that the official Kiev it seems to consist of the following items:
- Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic eliminated, their defenders expelled or killed.
- from the EU and the US to get help, which can be used to neutralize the effects of the fighting and reduction of trade with the Russian Federation.
- Western markets are open for Ukrainian goods, Europeans happily constructed in line to buy them.
- Under pressure from the EU and the US agreed to sell gas to Russia at a symbolic price.
- Under the same pressure from the Crimea back to where taken.Sevastopol joyfully greet the parade of the Ukrainian army.
- There is no humanitarian catastrophe will be.
History will show which of these expectations come true ...
