considering the fact that such a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble's start with the fact that the monetary unit of Belarus in the last few months has shown a sharp appreciation in the currency basket.At the same time the phenomenon has been a significant depreciation of the currency against the dollar and the euro.According to experts, a prerequisite for such a situation in the country has become the economy of the state and the world in general.In the period from January to November 2014 was the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble by an average of 2.25% against the euro, the dollar and the Russian ruble.The reason for this drop in Russian ruble and exit the euro currency in the international market.If last year the question as to whether the devaluation of the ruble, asked many, today the answer is quite obvious.Will not alone.
Where are the concerns?
According to the information provided by the National Bank of the Republic, since the beginning of 2015 depreciation of the national currency to the US dollar was 1.92%, while the euro - 2.46%.And all would do, but the population is accustomed to measure the level of their wealth in dollars.As mentioned above, there has been a strengthening of the currency against the Russian ruble on the order of 18%.This fact does not change the mood of the devaluation.Even in 2000 it was decided to make predictions and to keep their savings in dollars.A similar trend is pushing the fact that the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble in 2015 will still be felt.According to analysts, it is the National Bank adjusts the rate fixing in the country, it was he who systematically reduces the cost of the ruble.
that will lead to a devaluation?
considering the fact that such a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, it is impossible not to draw attention to the causes of the phenomenon.The situation is due to the fact that as a result of the decline of the global economy, the country has ceased to buy currency in the extent to which purchased earlier.Consequently, the flow of dollars does not cover the outflow of currency from the country.Demand exceeds supply.The difference is covered by borrowing.This causes the smooth fall of the national currency.The absence of factors, which could change the situation, only indicates the continuation of the trend.Lack of hard currency the country talking about a significant revaluation of the Belarusian currency to the US dollar, which in July 2014 was at the level of 20-30%.With the high level of inflation products of the state are actively growing in price in the international markets, imported goods become more attractive to citizens.Increased imbalance leads to the need for the government to start a devaluation of the ruble to eliminate the disharmony within the foreign exchange market.
rigid peg to the dollar - one of the reasons for the phenomenon
Due to the tight binding of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar, as noted above, in foreign markets there is a strong imbalance.While the national currency depreciates against the dollar, it grows stronger in comparison with other currencies of the world.The government has decided to send the exchange rate to float freely, as to keep the stability of the sector is not obtained.Even before the crisis was the policy of the Central Bank aims to reduce the value of the currency in the range of 1% per month.The elimination of the fixed rate to help solve problems with exports.The increase in external debt, the destabilization of the banking system - it is just a temporary phenomenon that will go in the future to the past.
What is the root of the problem?
In order to understand the question that is the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, you need to initially make an assessment of the economic situation.Preliminary data suggest that the end of 2015 currency devaluation will reach 40-50%.One of the main reasons - is to increase the crisis at the nearest neighbor, Russia, exponentially.The country is more than 60-70% dependent on Russia, therefore, to build partnerships with each time will be harder.The current crisis is different from past problems in that it is formed by several factors.It is not only internal reasons, but also external, such as the sanctions by the EU and the fall in oil prices.The credit rating of Russia - this is the last place predspekulyativny investment level.The capital market is closed for a neighbor of Belarus, the cost of money increases, the neighbors do not become more generous.At the same time increases the cost of money for the Belarusian business.Today, the refinancing rate in Russia is 8.25%, and in Belarus - 25%.These figures will rise as long as the price of oil will fall, and will be active until the sanctions.The above-described circumstances directly affect every citizen of the country through the ruble in Belarus.Significant adjustments in the course of events can make future elections in the country.
What do predictions for 2015?
question as to whether the devaluation of the ruble, or not, has dropped, but its volume can be questioned.The index at the level of 40-50% of the few people happy.Problems can arise in sectors such as retail and financial sector, real estate, and other areas focused on the end user.President Lukashenko at a press conference spoke about the relevance of the liberation of the ruble due to the currency panic the population.The government plans has never been a devaluation of the ruble, and the mortgage has always had to stay within affordable.This decision was due to the fact that the government intends to maintain its gold reserves.The open policy of Belarus could not feel the crisis in Ukraine and Russia.Despite the panic, of course, and today, it is being monitored.Changing the economic model is not planned.Moreover, it was announced to the public that the reasons for the devaluation of the ruble in 2015, multilateral, fortunately, over time, the situation will change drastically.
devaluation expectations
devaluation expectations in society have an impact on the increase in inflation due to the demand for foreign exchange and commodities.Growth of population's needs in dollars, euros and rubles suppressed even further devaluation.This speeds up inflation.At the end of 2014 with the aim to bring down the demand for foreign currency government has introduced a commission for the purchase of foreign money in the amount of 30%.After the fall of excitement began to abolish the percentage in increments of 10%, which was accompanied by a parallel fall in the value of the national currency is not less than 7% each time.It was a move the state toward businessmen.Percentage of foreign currency exchange was offset by the falling value of money.
What will happen next
If the situation in the country will develop in such a format, and then, as soon as the question of what is the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble will be replaced by the expectation of rising inflation.This will be the reason for the increase in deposit rates, which will strengthen the commitment of the country to save.Practically there is no doubt that more than one month will continue devaluation of the ruble-2015.What do the people in this situation?Do not panic.It is the most rational way in the circumstances.Soft monetary policy can lead to the generation of inflation one another, thus forming an inflationary spiral.If the event takes place, the government will have to give priority to businesses and not to private households and low-income groups.
devaluation in late 2014
question of what it means to devaluation, is not much worried about the public in late 2014.This is due to the fact that the phenomenon did not escape happened.The reason for that was the problem faced by Russia's exports.The subjective and psychological factors have provoked panic.In just one day, namely December 18 Belarusians were bought currency in the amount of 80 million dollars, which is many times more average amounts.In the autumn of that year, the volume of currency purchases did not exceed $ 5 million.The government almost immediately took drastic measures and decided to release the rate to float freely.In comparison with 2011, when the country's leadership does almost nothing, the reaction was rapid.
What led podeshevlenie currency in the market?
consider what led devaluation 2015.What will each decide for themselves, but the consequences of the phenomenon can be assessed.Significant benefits as a result of the situation has got to exporters.This big push should be expected, because the main consumer of Belarusian goods to Russia in favor (more than 43% of exports), but it is currently experiencing a slowdown.Economic growth is blocked bank interest rates, which were completely unfeasible for economic entities.Many, considering the question of what it means to the devaluation of the ruble, talk about the fall of their earnings in dollar terms.Due to the binding of the national currency at the same time the dollar, euro and ruble there is considerable instability.The devaluation of the ruble and a mortgage on acceptable terms - the concept is almost incompatible.Today, the national currency has become an indicator of the state's economy, a symbol of its unstable state.
What does the situation in the country and whether all that bad?
economic growth in Belarus increased by 1.6 times in 2014.In 2015, GDP is expected to grow by 0.2-0.5%.Wage growth is expected in connection with the upcoming presidential election.Devaluation is associated with reduction in financial aid from Russia.Statistics says that during the first devaluation of the country's citizens have gained about 48 thousand cars in Russia, despite the fact that the country offers for the purchase of vehicles more profitable.Expenses amounted to about 500 million.On the maintenance of the national currency, the government spent 760 million, resulting in a reduction of up to 5 billion gold reserves.Demand for foreign currency has pushed to increase rates and further freeze lending.Was the cost of frozen food, to medications and tariffs of state enterprises.OTC transactions with the currency came under taboo until 2017.Having considered the question of what threatens devaluation population is said to change the interest rates on loans and deposits.They were completely tied to the rate of the national currency.
what the future holds and what obligations took over the country in connection with the fall in the price of the ruble?
In 2015, the state must fully pay the external debt, the size of which is about 3 billion.Allocation of funds from the budget to calculate the partners should not affect the reduction in demand.Assistance from Russia in material terms at least open and import flows, but the situation is not completely solve.The problem in the banking sector will remain unresolved for years.This is due to the fact that foreign assets is in the negative zone.Get rid of losses on withdrawal of deposits can only rate of 50% or more.After studying the question of what it means for the devaluation of the ruble in Belarus, we can say that the process for the country's more than usual.Since 2000, the rate of national currency hardly began at about 10% in just one week at least 5 times.The course is under pressure from the increased demand for imports, wage growth significantly exceeds production at a fixed rate.The economy is constantly warmed soft loans and subsidized construction.Devaluation has never been used to eliminate the problem, as always followed her orders for higher wages.The country's economy with the support of Russia never fell into a deep hole.
