For a person is not an expert in politics, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of the University of New York makes a surprisingly accurate predictions of political events.He succeeded within a few months to predict the care from their posts Hosni Mubarak and Musharraf Pereverzev.It is aptly named receiver Ayatollah Khomeini as leader of Iran for 5 years before his death.Asked about the secret, he replied that the answer does not know - he knows the game.Under the game here means a mathematical method, which was originally created to generate and analyze the strategies of different games - namely, the theory of games.In economics, it is used most often.Although initially it was razrobotana for the design and analysis strategies in games used for entertainment.
theory of games - a numerical method that enables us to calculate the scenario, or, more precisely, the probability of various scenarios of system behavior, or "games", controlled by various factors.These factors, in turn, are determined by a number of "players".
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior very organically perepleneny.This is natural.This defines the range of problems to be solved by game theory in economics.It helps calculate the sequence of events on the basis that the parties will pursue their interests.The objectives, motivation and influence of various players are entering the parameters of practical problems to be solved by the theory of games.
players in the economy - a company-producers, trading companies, banks and other organizations of all kinds.Based on these parameters, the computer model estimates the probability of various scenarios of behavior of each player evaluates their ability to influence the decisions of other players, and thus calculates the most anticipated sequence of events.
Game theory in economics - is a great tool for forecasting.Especially effective this method proved itself in the field of modeling auctions.Bids at the auction are subject to a quantitative description, and the end result can often be accurately predicted.Consulting agencies to effectively use computer programs based on game theory to make auction transactions with the maximum benefit for the client.For example, a tactic designed pofessorom Milgrom for companies Time Warner and Comcast to participate in the auction of broadcasting frequencies, it proved triumphant, and saved these firms almost $ 1.2 million.
Game theory in economics makes good use of finance, politics can resolve protracted conflicts and negotiations stalled.Nadavno put forward the idea to use the computer as an independent negotiator in a situation where the process has stalled.These programs, as an independent agent can get the process off the ground without disturbing the balance of interests of different parties.Similar programs are being actively developed and tested in the divorce proceedings.
Thus, game theory, the economy received a major impetus to the development, can be applied in various fields of human activity.It is too early to say that these programs were used to allow military konflmktov, but in the future it's real.
