concept of unemployment, according to ILO methodology, which in modified form used by Rosstat, is the ratio of the economically active population aged 15 to 72 years to people who at the time of the study sought to find a job or are interested in finding a job.
Specificity assessment of the level of unemployment in Russia
unemployment rate in Russia are determined by taking into account two parameters:
- number of appeals to the employment service.
- analysis of the results of surveys on population issues, which are operated within 0.6% of the total population of the country.
Each quarter, in Russia conducted a survey about 65 thousand people aged 15 to 72 years.During the year the number of persons surveyed amounts to about 260 thousand people.
Rosstat data
According to Rosstat sample surveys of the population, in April 2015 the unemployment rate in Russia reached a figure of 5.8%.It is about 4.4 million people.Employment Service recorded less than 1 million unemployed.That this information was guided by the country's president, during his direct speech with the report for the year to April 2015.According to opinion polls, in February 2015, about 27% of the population marked reduction in the number of employees in enterprises throughout the end of 2014 - beginning of 2015.According to information provided by the Federal State Statistics Service, in the last decade, the unemployment rate in Russia ranged between 5.3% in 2014 and 8.2% in 2009, which many remember as a crisis.In general, in the last year, according to the figures, the situation is just improved.
Unemployment in Russia in January - April 2015
According to research in the period from January to April, the highest unemployment rate was registered in the Republic of Ingushetia.The index reached a value of 29.9% in April this year.In the rest of the North Caucasus republics and in Kalmykia, in the Trans-Baikal region and in Sevastopol, in the Republic of Tuva and in the Nenets Autonomous unemployment reached 10%.Indicators in the range of 3% was recorded only in Moscow and St. Petersburg.In the central part of the country indicator is either below or no more than the natural rate of unemployment in Russia (5.8%).In some regions, unemployment reaches values of 6-8% of the total active population with an average of 7%.Official statistics do not give any reason for panic.
Statistics searches
dynamics of unemployment in Russia has successfully tracked by the number of searches with the word "vacancy".Thus, in the period from March 2013 to April 2015 the number of requests has increased by 94.2%.This was the maximum for the last two years.It formed a very illogical situation.Despite the systematic improvement of official figures, people active in finding a job.Doubt naveivaet the situation.In March 2013 the official unemployment rate was only 5.7%, which corresponded to the number of queries on the Internet.Accordingly, the increase in unemployment in March 2015 caused the increase of competitors on the Internet in 1.94 times.If transfer requests with the word "vacancy" on the percentage, it should have been equated to 11%.In fact it was officially announced on the growth rate of just 0.1%.The phenomenon is easily explained by the fact that there are not only official, but also the hidden unemployment in Russia.The number of those who are officially registered at work, but at the same time or working part-time or not at all busy.Job Search on the Internet - is one of the most sought after destinations today.Resort to it, even those who were under the threat of dismissal, which also puts a certain imprint on the numbers.
monitoring in the field of employment
In February 2015, representatives of the Public Opinion Foundation conducted a general monitoring of the situation in the country.In accordance with the information provided was possible to deduce the following statistics:
- job loss among relatives said 31% of respondents.
- Reduction in their companies said not less than 27% of monitoring participants.
- 39% of the respondents focused on the high probability of losing their jobs.
- not less than 19% of the participants spoke of hidden unemployment within their companies.
If we compare the situation with the crisis of 2008, when the unemployment rate was extremely high, but today everything is more or less stable, as evidenced by official data.At the same time, many respondents noted deterioration.
What is the situation in 2014?
unemployment rate in Russia in 2014, many experts remembered as a critical moment.According to Rosstat, while the number of economically unemployed persons equated to 151,000 people.Against the backdrop of the current economic situation, the experts did not stop to talk about the further deterioration of performance.Authorized representatives of the Federal State Statistics Service was able to calculate the unemployment rate in Russia in September 2014 was only 4.9%, but the figures were much worse than in October, at 5.1%.Analysis showed that the most affected by the situation are people who have been involved in the private sector.The forecast was made of the fact that next year will be fixed high unemployment in Russia, including black.
unemployment during the crisis of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015
During the crisis of 2008-2009 the first information about the growth of unemployment was admitted to the media in October 2008.The main wave has covered the country only after 7-8 months, from January to April 2009.Significant differences in performance were seen in the regional context.Information about the creation of new jobs, which is often made public at the time, was regarded as the experts are not very comforting.For example, 40 thousand jobs that have managed to create in the Far East, according to information provided by EMISS, virtually nothing has changed in the light of the fact that the official status of "unemployed" was assigned to 224.2 thousand. People.Compared with the problems of 2008 the level of unemployment in Russia in 2015 has a very different character.The growth rate is due to increase in hidden unemployment, which deprives any possibility of soberly and rationally assess the processes occurring in the economy.Positive social mood able to maintain due to the low official figures which, according to most analysts and industry experts are far from reality.The current situation has a negative impact on the welfare of the living standards of the population.
What is the difference between the situation in 2008 and 2014
unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 is growing not officially, as it was in 2008.This is due to the different character of administrative decisions, the introduction of new programs to combat unemployment and the growth of the hidden figure, which actually can not be reflected in the reports of Rosstat.The problem lies in the time deferral between management decisions and the period when they begin to give the expected results.The basis of a set of measures is a professional re-training, which not only gives instant effect, but does not provide momentary employment.The situation is aggravated by the fact that Ulyukayev, who served as head of the Ministry of Economy, made a proposal to stop funding for programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the official unemployment rate in the Russian regions was much better than expected.
What will happen in 2015?
Against the background of the catastrophic fall of oil price at the beginning of 2015 (January-February) and the parallel weakening of the ruble, economists talked about the state of the economy entering a recession.Answering a question on what level of unemployment in Russia will in 2015, many focused on the inevitable decline due to freezing of many planned and ongoing projects, as well as in the case of the final closure of many companies.Domestic economic situation in the country did not help to wait for an epidemic of unemployment rates.In 2009, it was possible to observe the value of 8.3% by the end of 2015 should not expect a figure of 6.4% against 5.5% in 2014.In comparison with other countries of the world the course of events is not catastrophic.So, Spain for several years can not cope with the rate of 25%, Greece - 25.8%, while France and Austria - 10%.
Official government statements
Ministry of economic development of the country relies on the fact that unemployment in Russia, which provided statistics from official sources, will rise to the level of 6.4%.The number of unemployed could reach about 434 thousand people.The situation will be reflected in the level of wages, which are planned to reduce by 9.6% to the end of 2015 (compared to 3.5% in 2008).This is due to the reduction of financial possibilities of the budget.Expected increase in poverty from 11% in 2014 to 12.4% in 2015.According to forecasts by Igor Nikolayev, served as director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department, if the end of 2015, the indicator stops at a value of 6.4%, in 2016-2017 it will be possible to observe a sharp increase.Forecast Centre representatives of the HSE said that the most crisis-affected sectors of the economy such as trade and construction, services and tourism.Unsweetened have representatives of the financial sector.At risk of dismissal fall very low-skilled office workers.Focusing on the fact that all the forecasts are only predictions and assumptions, consider the situation of fact can be in a certain time interval, and based on both official and unofficial data.
