most efficient and effective lever exchange rate of the ruble in Russia -interventsiya.What it is, try to find out gradually.The procedure, in fact, acts as a large-scale purchase or sale of the domestic currency, the CBR, which allows us to derive the final rate to a certain level.The strategy impact on the value of the ruble laid down a rule: the rise or decline in demand for the national currency in the international market leads to its more expensive or cheaper, that is the growth or drop in prices.
Why Central Bank to intervene?
Russia belongs to the category of states that thrive thanks to raw materials.Exports out a huge amount of oil, while the country imported a huge number of products aimed at the consumer.For many, the high rate of the ruble against the US dollar may seem a big advantage.People are guided by the fact that it is possible at the lowest cost to travel the world, because of the small amount of rubles, you can buy a lot of dollars.There is another side to the coin.Companies engaged in the export of raw materials, a negative attitude to the higher rate.The problem is that the sale of oil occurs in cheap dollars, but the purchase of raw materials and wages to employees of companies is carried out in expensive rubles.The dependence of the budget on oil and gas sector leads to a failure of the budget at a very high rate of national currency.In order to stabilize the exchange rate and eliminate the likelihood of the budget deficit, the government is implementing a procedure such as intervention in the foreign exchange market.
actual calculations: Why reduce the ruble
Consider the example of a negative impact on the activities of the ruble expensive oil and gas companies.To discuss the situation, when the cost of oil will be equal to $ 1,000.The total costs of the company (again, for example) in the order of 20 thousand rubles.When the dollar will cost 25 rubles, the company's net profit per ton of oil will be about 5000 rubles.If the dollar will cost 30 rubles, the profit will be equal to 10 thousand rubles.It is calculated as follows:
ruble's cost of a ton of oil - Costs = Net profit
Such calculations are in a common format used in the construction of the economic plan of the state.Central Bank intervention in the currency market is carried out to prevent a strong appreciation of the domestic currency, which can lead to inappropriate development of oil.
actual calculations, why keep the ruble
unacceptable situation formed in the market and when the ruble weakened excessively.Let us examine this situation with a concrete example.Let us assume that the goods which are imported into the country, equal to one dollar.In a situation where the dollar is equal to 20 rubles, the goods in the store will cost 20 rubles plus minor costs.When the dollar will rise to 30 rubles, and increase the cost of imported goods.The result will be formed is such a thing as inflation.Jump in inflation is not going to benefit the country, which is dependent on imported goods.Central Bank intervention in the currency market in a given situation will be spent on the purchase of foreign currency in order to increase demand for it.
Features of intervention
Bulk buying or selling the currency is the ruble intervention.What is the part of the technical procedures, try to consider gradually.Procedure to organize and hold the CBR.When will the real intervention, the Central Bank reported on the planned currency manipulation in advance.This approach is called verbal intervention.Message Central Bank produces a reaction of the market players.It may be that the message to buy or sell the currency to reduce consumption of resources in the Central Bank manipulation.Data on intervention can automatically stimulate the growth or decline in demand for the national currency.Some states are practicing verbal intervention to influence the exchange rate.The situation on the currency market could change if the hint of things to come the influential head of the Central Bank.
Types of interventions
There are several formats, which can be carried out intervention rate.What is it and what are the variations of the procedure, let's find out below.
- verbal intervention (dummy).On the currency market can be influenced not only the foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but also rumors that their implementation is planned for the near future.
- real intervention.The operation is carried out in an open format.After graduation, the media published information about how much money needed to carry it out.Quite often, intervention in the foreign exchange market can be carried out with the participation of not one, but several states.This situation is typical in cases where a change in the exchange rate, several countries interested.
worth noting that verbal intervention is much more prevalent than the real version of the process.This is due primarily to the fact that the information is always unexpected causes powerful reaction of market participants.
interventions depending on the direction
intervention can be classified depending on the direction:
- the market.This format enhances the movement of intervention in the market, which has already been formed.Manipulation of the government only reinforce the trend.
- against the market.This procedure is aimed at restoring the national currency to the previous figure.That is, the Central Bank will act against the existing and well-established in the framework of the market trend.Unfortunately, attempts to expand the direction of the central banks of the price movement is not always successful.
What is needed for the success of the intervention?
regulation of the currency market ends with success only if they meet several conditions.You can talk about the presence of the following factors:
- high level of trust of the market players to long-term policy of the Central Bank.
- significant changes in the economic performance of the fundamental type.
- Sufficient financial reserves at the Central Bank.
studying the phenomenon of the intervention of the ruble (which is - already considered above), it should be said about its application not only to adjust the exchange rate.The procedure is used to control the volatility of the market, to support the liquidity of national unity, in order to reduce the rate of change of its price, for the accumulation of reserves of the CBR.
What's going on with the CBA and why he no longer control the ruble?
As a result, reduce the cost of catastrophic and severe sanctions from the EU currency interventions Bank of Russia stopped to bring the expected effect.It turns out that the global consumption of gold reserves was carried out for nothing.To keep the public saving, the government decided to let the currency float freely.This suggests that the price of the purchase and sale of the Russian ruble will depend solely on the actual supply and demand on the market.
When the intervention ceased to be effective?
CBR currency interventions have always had a certain effect on the market situation.December 5, 2015 circumstances have changed dramatically.Since that day the first time in the history of quotations of dollar / ruble peaked on record in 63 rubles.A similar situation took place on the chart, and the euro / ruble, which were on record in 78 rubles.At the same time, the European fuel fell in price to $ 60.Russian companies have begun to take an active interest in the currency as the majority of them to lend in US dollars.To support the national currency exchange rate, the Central Bank of RS sold about 2-3 billion dollars.The sharp depreciation of the ruble, since December 2014, did not respond to the intervention of the Central Bank, as it has been caused not only by internal factors, but also the powerful influence of external economic factors.Today, the government intervenes in the formation of prices in the currency only when it is extremely necessary and required by the critical state of the economy at a particular time.
